Tracking how lines move throughout an NFL week can provide meaningful information to bettors. In general, lines become more sharp throughout the week as sportsbooks collect more information.
Each game will have its reasoning for movement (e.g., injuries, betting activity, weather, etc.) and varying degrees of impact on the line.
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NFL Week 18 Line Movement Analysis
The table below is intended to summarize the home team spread and total movement for this week’s games to help provide context for any significant movements.
| Home Spread | Total | ||||||
| Away | Home | Open | Current | Diff | Open | Current | Diff |
| CLE | BAL | -17.5 | -17.5 | 0 | 42.5 | 41.5 | -1 |
| CIN | PIT | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1 | 47.5 | 48 | 0.5 |
| WAS | DAL | 3 | 5 | -2 | 44 | 44 | 0 |
| CHI | GB | -9 | -10 | 1 | 40.5 | 41 | 0.5 |
| NO | TB | -14 | -13.5 | -0.5 | 43.5 | 43.5 | 0 |
| JAX | IND | -5 | -5 | 0 | 44.5 | 45 | 0.5 |
| NYG | PHI | -3.5 | -2 | -1.5 | 38.5 | 37.5 | -1 |
| HOU | TEN | -5 | 0 | -5 | 36.5 | 38 | 1.5 |
| CAR | ATL | -7.5 | -8 | 0.5 | 47.5 | 48 | 0.5 |
| BUF | NE | 2 | 2.5 | -0.5 | 41 | 38 | -3 |
| SF | AZ | -2.5 | -4.5 | 2 | 44.5 | 43 | -1.5 |
| MIA | NYJ | 2.5 | 1 | -1.5 | 41 | 39 | -2 |
| KC | DEN | -10 | -10.5 | 0.5 | 39 | 39.5 | 0.5 |
| SEA | LAR | -2.5 | 6.5 | -8 | 41.5 | 38.5 | -3 |
| LAC | LV | 6 | 5 | 1 | 40.5 | 41 | 0.5 |
| MIN | DET | -2.5 | -2.5 | 0 | 51 | 56 | 5 |
(Lines per DraftKings Sportsbook | Line movement via EV Analytics | Open odds as of Monday morning | Current odds as of Thursday evening)
NFL Week 18 Spread Movement Analysis
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans: -5 -> 0
Only in Week 18 would we have seen a three-win Titans team open as a five-point favorite against a division winner in the Texans. But it is also seemingly a staple of Week 18 to see a line move as much as this one has, as varying reports surface about how coaches plan to prepare for a regular season finale, especially with Houston’s playoff seeding locked (no matter the result the Texans are the No. 4 seed in the AFC).
This line movement suggests that Houston could be looking for some momentum heading into the playoffs after getting embarrassed in a 31-2 loss to the Ravens last week. For what its worth, the Texans are also coming off extended rest having played on Christmas. Meanwhile, bettors have not shown much interest in a Tennessee team that is 2-14 ATS this season, the worst ATS mark in the Super Bowl era.
It also remains to be seen what kind of flow the Titans can get into offensively, as the team has already said it would be using this week to evaluate the future quarterback situation by getting looks at both Mason Rudolph and Will Levis.
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams: -2.5 -> 6.5
Off the top of my head I cannot recall a bigger line move for a spread in any game this season than the eight-point swing that this NFC West matchup had.
Los Angeles has already clinched the NFC West title, and it does not appear to be too worried on finishing as the No. 3 or No. 4 seed in the playoffs as that depends on this weekend’s results. The Rams have already said they are resting Matthew Stafford and are starting Jimmy Garoppolo in his place. Right tackle Rob Havenstein has already been ruled out, and this big line swing also suggests other weapons like Puka Nacua or Kyren Williams could also be limited or rested.
Sean McVay is 10-2 ATS against Seattle since 2019, covering by an average of more than five points per game. But with L.A.’s motivation heavily in question, bettors and oddsmakers do not seem to care too much about what the trends say.
This line fell from +5 to +3 initially after jumping the fence, but has gone in Seattle’s favor since then, making stops at +5, +5.5, +6, and +6.5. With that momentum, it would not be surprising for this line to get to the key number of seven before kickoff.
NFL Week 18 Total Movement Analysis
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots: 41 -> 38
Buffalo is one of four teams whose playoff seeding is locked, so it should not have been shocking to learn that the Bills were going to be cautious with Josh Allen, giving him the start to extend his consecutive games streak, but also sitting him soon thereafter.
Although there is no chance of precipitation, high wind forecasts could also be at play with this line movement. Wind gusts of up to 40 mph are projected in Foxborough for Sunday.
Regardless, New England was the team that stopped Buffalo’s 30-point streak two weeks ago, so sharp bettors may also be interested on the total just as much for that reason as they are that the Bills are resting several key starters.
The total initially rebounded slightly to 40.5 after dropping to 40 early in the week, but the latest big line movements from 40.5 to 38 have come in the last couple of days.
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions: 51 -> 56
No total in any game this week has moved more than in this Vikings-Lions clash. This game also has the most riding on it, as the winner will be the NFC’s No. 1 seed, and the loser gets the No. 5 seed.
The total had reached a week-long high of 58 before Under backers got involved and drove it all the way back down to 56. If the game kicks off with a total of 57 or more points, it would be the highest total in any NFL game in three years, since the Chiefs and Titans had a total of 59 in 2021.
Detroit beat Minnesota 31-29 in Week 7, and each of the last six meetings between these teams has gone over the projected total.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.
