NFL Week 18 Line Movement Analysis: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

by Kurt Blakeway |
Jan 02, 2024

Unfortunately, we have come to the end of the NFL season. But, with Week 18 upon us, that doesnâ€™t mean there is meaningless football; plenty of games on the board offer substantial playoff implications.

That said, letâ€™s look at the board and see where there has been early live movement.

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NFL Week 18 Line Movement

Odds and Lines via (Caesars Sportsbook)

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens

Open: Steelers -3
Current: Steelers -4

Baltimore officially clinched the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs after the Ravens beat the Dolphins this past week. Therefore, Week 18 brings them the opportunity to sit the majority of their starters.

Meanwhile, the Steelers still have hope and the opportunity to make the playoffs, which is why you see early movement trending toward Pittsburgh.

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals

Open: Bengals -3.5
Current: Bengals -5.5

The Browns secured a playoff spot after the win against the New York Jets and have locked up the No. 5 seed.

With the Browns planning on resting their starters, the Bengals open as three-point home favorites. Early money on Cincinnati moved this line to five despite Cincy having nothing to play for in Week 18 after being mathematically eliminated from postseason contension this past week.

New York Jets at New England Patriots

Open: Patriots -1.5
Current: Patriots -2.5

The season canâ€™t end fast enough for both AFC East teams.

Despite how poorly the offense has been for the Patriots, they open as 1.5-point home favorites, and as of Tuesday morning, this line has jumped to 2.5 at most places.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans

Open: Jags -3.5
Current: Jags -5

Caesars opened this game with the Jags as 3.5-point road favorites; by Tuesday morning, this line is up to five, with some books up to 5.5. One has to think Trevor Lawrence will play in this game with that kind of line movement.

A win for Jacksonville will clinch the AFC South, so there is plenty of motivation for the Jags in this game.

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers

Open: Chargers -1
Current: Chargers -2

The Chiefs won the AFC West for the eighth consecutive year with this past weekâ€™s win over the Bengals which also secured the No. 3 seed. Kansas City will have the chance to rest their starters against the Chargers.

Chargers opened up as one-point home favorites, and as of Tuesday morning, this line moved to 2 or 2.5 at some books.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants

Open: Eagles -6.5
Current: Eagles -5

The Eagles have already secured a playoff spot, but the NFC East is still up for grabs. The Eagles need a win in East Rutherford plus a Dallas loss to grab the division title.

Despite what is on the line for the Eagles, we have seen this line dip a point and a half. Despite being 11-5, the Eagles have been out-gained in seven of their past nine games. Itâ€™s been a rough second half for this Eagles team, and not exactly how you want to head into the playoffs.

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins

Open: Bills -2.5
Current: Bills -3

The AFC East comes down to this winner-take-all matchup between the Bills and Dolphins.

Buffalo opened as 2.5-point favorites with early money on Buffalo, moving this spread to the critical number of three.

While Miami has already locked in a playoff spot here, the Bills arenâ€™t as lucky. Yes, a win here for the Bills will lock up the AFC East, but a loss here could have them out of the playoffs, depending on what the Jaguars and Steelers do.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:

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