NFL Week 18 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Underdog Bets (2024)
Sunday’s Week 17 slate was not good for underdogs, with the Cardinals (+6.5) winning against the spread and the Giants winning outright (+7, final score 45-33). However, the Week 18 slate is different, with most of the playoff-bound teams not playing their key starters.
But that doesn’t mean there are no solid underdog candidates in Week 18. With many of the playoff-bound teams sitting starters, some rather unique point spreads are out there.
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Best NFL Week 18 Underdog Picks
(Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Texans (-110) vs. Titans (-1.5)
The Texans are locked into the No. 4 seed in the AFC playoff picture, so they have nothing to gain from playing their starters and risking injury. However, they are coming off a demoralizing loss to the Ravens, so it may be worth playing starters to go into the playoffs on a positive note.
But we don’t know for certain what they’ll do. Head coach DeMeco Ryans has said only that “everybody has to be ready to go†and “we’ll see how the game goes.â€
All things equal, Houston should have no problem beating Tennessee. But even at full strength, it is hard to trust just what we’ll see from the Texans. However, the Titans are a pretty lousy team. Houston should be able to beat them with C.J. Stroud or Davis Mills at quarterback.
Pick: Texans Moneyline (-110)
Bills (-2.5) vs. Patriots (+124)
The Bills have already said Josh Allen will start, but it is more because his consecutive starts streak is important to him. He will likely not stay in the game for long. Buffalo is locked into the No. 2 seed and gains nothing from beating the Patriots other than the satisfaction that comes with winning.
However, for New England, a win could damage their draft position, but players and coaches do not play to lose. With Buffalo not trying to put their best foot forward, the Patriots could win if Drake Maye puts together a solid game.
Pick: Patriots Moneyline (+124)
Giants (+118) vs. Eagles (-138)
The Eagles are the better team of the two; there is no question about that. However, the Eagles are not putting their best guys on the field. Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts will sit. Kenny Pickett wasn’t bad when he had Barkley in the backfield with him, but he will not have that working in his favor here.
Drew Lock went off on the Colts last week for 300+ yards and four touchdowns. But having that kind of game against a lackluster Colts defense and the Eagles defense are different. Having faith in the Lock and the Giants against the Eagles’ second-team defense is hard.
But a Giants win against the Eagles’ “B†team is certainly possible.
Pick: Giants Moneyline (+118)
Chiefs (+10.5) vs. Broncos (-590)
Kansas City will not put Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce or anyone else deemed vital to the team’s success in harm’s way. Carson Wentz hasn’t played good football in years, but if there is anyone who can rehab the one-time MVP candidate, it’s Andy Reid. However, he will not have the team’s best-skill position players to work with.
With the uncertainty over what Wentz brings to the table, it is not hard to understand why the Broncos are heavy favorites. But Denver’s defense has not been good in recent weeks. Wentz may not have to be great to get the ball moving against the Broncos. He certainly may play well enough to keep the game within a touchdown, though.
Pick: Chiefs +10.5 (-115)