NFL Week 18 Pick’em Pool Advice, Picks & Predictions (2023)
The final week of the NFL season is here, which means some teams are playing for everything and others are playing for nothing. With their playoff hopes on the line, the Pittsburgh Steelers are road favorites over the Baltimore Ravens, while the Cincinnati Bengals are six-point favorites over the Cleveland Browns. What surprises should you expect in the final week of the season?
Here is our best NFL pick-em advice for Week 18.
Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>
NFL Week 18 Pick’Em Pool Advice
Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts
Saturday night football is essentially our first playoff game of the year. The winner of this AFC South showdown will advance to the postseason. When these two teams met back in Week 2, the Colts defeated the Texans 31-20. Yet, the Texans are road favorites in this game.
With C.J. Stroud under center, the Texans are a better team than the Colts. However, the Colts have been a very unpredictable team this season. They beat the Steelers 30-13 three weeks ago, but they lost by double digits to both the Atlanta Falcons and the Bengals.
Anthony Richardson was why the Colts built their lead over the Texans in the first matchup between these two teams. He won’t be playing on Saturday, and Gardner Minshew is much easier to prepare for than the athletic rookie. The Texans are going to steal a road victory and a playoff spot from Indianapolis.
The Pick: Houston Texans
Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints
If the Tampa Bay Buccaneers lose to the Carolina Panthers, then the winner of this game will win the NFC South. When these two teams met earlier in the season, the Falcons came away with a 24-15 victory. But the game could have been an even larger blowout had Desmond Ridder not thrown two really bad interceptions.
The Saints are favored by three because they’re the home team. But if the Falcons run the ball the way they are capable of, they’re going to win this game. The Saints have the 21st-ranked run defense in the league, and they allowed 91 yards to Bijan Robinson in the first meeting.
Whoever plays quarterback for the Falcons will struggle in this game, because they simply aren’t that good. Hopefully, the Falcons realize this and run the ball down the throat of the Saints’ defense. If they do, they may sneak away with an NFC South title.
The Pick: Atlanta Falcons
Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers
If the Packers win, they’re in the postseason. It would be a remarkable feat for a team starting a young inexperienced quarterback who headlined an offense riddled with injuries all season. However, the Bears are one of the hottest teams in football right now, and they will not take their role as spoiler lightly.
The Bears have won four of their past five games, and had they not had such a dreadful start to the year, they’d be the team that no one wants to play in the postseason. Their last three wins have all been by double digits, including their 15-point win over the Detroit Lions.
The Packers have the fifth-worst run defense in the NFL. If they’re unable to stop Justin Fields in this game, then they’re never going to get off the field on third down. Last week’s performance was an impressive one from the Packers. But with how their defense has been playing for the majority of December, we’re taking the Bears to ruin their rivals’ playoff hopes.
The Pick: Chicago Bears
Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins
The game of the week will be played in Miami as the Dolphins and Bills battle for the AFC East crown. Bradley Chubb is out for the season for the Dolphins, which is a huge loss for a defense that had been playing well before their blowout loss to the Ravens.
Because of the current standings, the Bills could enter Sunday night’s game needing to win just to make the postseason. Therefore, they technically have more to play for in this game. Yet, even with the Dolphins losing by 37 points last week, and with the Bills favored by three, we’re still taking the home team to win this game.
The Bills have won four games in a row, but they have not looked very good in either of their last two contests. They needed a comeback to beat the injury-riddle Los Angeles Chargers, and they barely defeated the New England Patriots. After being embarrassed last week, the Dolphins will be ready for this one. And they may even end the Bills’ season.
The Pick: Miami Dolphins
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:
- NFL Week 18 Early Odds, Best Bets & Trends (2023)
- 2024 The Sentry: PGA Odds, Picks & Predictions
- College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions
- Top NBA Odds, Picks & Predictions
- Top NHL Odds, Picks & Predictions
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.