NFL Week 18 Picks: Sleepers & Longshot Bets (2024)
The final week of the NFL season is here. The last week always features some strange storylines and weird spreads, with some teams playing for everything and others looking ahead to next season. How will Sam Darnold perform when his Minnesota Vikings take on the Detroit Lions? Can the Kansas City Chiefs beat the Denver Broncos with their backups? And what should we expect from Mike Evans against the New Orleans Saints?
Here are the best longshot bets of Week 18 of the NFL season.
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NFL Week 18 Picks: Sleepers & Longshot Bets (2024)
(Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Sam Darnold 350+ Passing Yards (+550)
Last week, Darnold threw for 377 yards against the Green Bay Packers. It was his third time throwing for at least 330 yards in seven games. While it was his first game with 350 yards this season, there's a solid chance he will hit that mark again against the Lions' secondary.
On Monday night, the Lions allowed Brock Purdy to throw for 377 yards against them. Two weeks ago, Caleb Williams threw for 334 yards, and three weeks ago, Josh Allen threw for 362 yards. The Lions' secondary is a mess right now, and Darnold is playing great football. Additionally, the Lions score often and quickly. Because of that, this game will feature a lot of possessions for both teams.
Darnold only threw for 259 yards in the first meeting between these two teams. However, the Lions' defense was much healthier back then, and TJ Hockenson didn't play in that game. I just don't see how the Lions cover all of the Vikings' weapons this week.
Kansas City Chiefs Moneyline (+470)
I understand that the Chiefs plan to rest most of the key players, and Patrick Mahomes has already been ruled out for this contest. However, I still think this is a game that the Chiefs could realistically win because of who their backups are.
Carson Wentz will get the start at quarterback. The last time he played most of a football game, he led the Los Angeles Rams to a 21-20 win over the San Francisco 49ers in last season's Week 18. While Wentz was going against reserves, he still threw for 163 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception, ultimately winning a duel with Darnold.
Bo Nix played well against the Chiefs' starters earlier this year, completing 73.3% of his passes for 215 yards and two touchdowns. The Broncos lost that game 16-14 in heartbreaking fashion. With this game being played in Denver, it seems everything is pointing to the Broncos' success. But Nix is just a rookie, and all of the pressure is on him this week after his team lost two consecutive games to be in this position. And while many will argue that the Chiefs will essentially throw this game to keep Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals out of the playoffs, you can't tell me that the backups wouldn't be thrilled to keep their division rivals out of the postseason.
Mike Evans 150+ Receiving Yards (+525)
Evans needs 85 yards to hit 1,000 receiving yards for the 11th straight season to start his career. While the Buccaneers are in the driver's seat to win the NFC South, they must win Sunday's game to officially wrap up the division. That means Evans and the other Bucs' starters will play the entire game.
Evans had only two catches for 34 yards against the Saints earlier this season, but I believe Baker Mayfield will do everything he can to ensure Evans hits 1,000 yards. This week's opponent is a team that has lost the last two games by a combined 59-10. Additionally, the defense allows 239.9 passing yards per game, the sixth-worst in the league.
Evans has already topped 150 yards once this season, and last week, he ended with eight catches for 97 yards and two touchdowns in a game that the Bucs won by 34. Look for him to have another massive game, as the Bucs keep pouring it on, even with the game in hand.
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.