NFL Week 18 Player Prop Bet Picks: Incentives & Records to Target (2024)

by Mike Fanelli |
Jan 04, 2024

The NFL regular season is almost over, with only one week to go. While some teams will rest starters for the playoffs or have nothing to play for, several players have records and bonuses on the line.

Everyone is motivated to cash in at the end of the year. Bettors can take advantage of the records or incentives in playerâ€™s contracts to help them determine which prop bets to bet the over on. Letâ€™s look at six players who could play their tail off in Week 18, hoping to break a record or bring home some extra cash.

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Week 18 Incentives & Records to Target

Baker Mayfieldâ€¦

Earns a $300k bonus if he finishes top 10 in the NFL or top-five in the NFC in passing yards

While the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are playing for the NFC South division title on Sunday, Mayfield is playing for a bonus. The former No. 1 overall pick is eighth in the NFL and fifth in the NFC in passing yards. However, he is only only 64 yards ahead of Jordan Love. Unfortunately, the Buccaneers play in the early window, while the Green Bay Packers are in the later set of games. Mayfield will need to have a pass-happy performance to guarantee this incentive.

Unfortunately, the quarterback faces the Carolina Panthers in Week 18. While they have the worst record in the league, the Panthers have held opposing quarterbacks to only 185.3 passing yards per game, the fewest in the NFL. Carolina has held quarterbacks under 220 passing yards in 75% of the games this year, including 10 straight. Mayfield had only 202 passing yards against the Panthers in Week 13. While he has a significant bonus on the line, I would be cautious betting the over on his passing yardage prop.

Jordan Loveâ€¦

Earns a $500k bonus if he finishes top 10 in the NFL in passing yards

Ironically, Love and Baker Mayfield wonâ€™t face each other on Sunday but will have a head-to-head contest. Love is currently 10th in the NFL with 3,843 passing yards. He must remain in the top 10 to cash a $500k bonus. The first-year starter has had an up-and-down season but has played well lately. Love has thrown for at least 255 yards in two of the past three games and six of the past eight. Hopefully, he has Christian Watson and Jayden Reed at his disposal for Sundayâ€™s contest.

The Green Bay Packers face the Chicago Bears in a critical matchup. Green Bay makes the playoffs with a win. Meanwhile, Chicago hopes to crush their division rivalâ€™s playoff hopes. The Bearsâ€™ defense has played well since the bye week, surrendering 237.5 passing yards per game to quarterbacks. Furthermore, Joe Flacco is the only quarterback with more than 236 passing yards against Chicago since they acquired Montez Sweat. Love had 245 passing yards in the Week 1 matchup against the Bears. Hopefully, he can have a similar performance.

Tyreek Hillâ€¦

Needs 248 receiving yards to break Calvin Johnsonâ€™s record for the most receiving yards in a season (1,964) and 283 yards to have the first 2,000-yard season ever.

Hill said he wanted to have 2,000 receiving yards this year in the offseason. When he had 215 receiving yards in Week 1, many thought the superstar would reach his goal. However, Hill has cooled off lately. Over his past three contests, the wide receiver has averaged 78.7 receiving yards per game, totaling 76 or fewer twice. Furthermore, Hill has only 66 more receiving yards than CeeDee Lamb, meaning the Miami Dolphins superstar could lose the receiving yard crown when a month ago it seemed impossible.

While Hill can have a massive yardage performance, itâ€™s unlikely he will total 248 or more receiving yards in Week 18. Not only has the superstar been dealing with an ankle injury, but he has an awful matchup on Sunday night. The Buffalo Bills have surrendered 128.5 receiving yards per game to wide receivers, the sixth-fewest in the NFL. Hill only had 58 receiving yards in the Week 4 matchup against the Bills, his second-lowest total this season. Unfortunately, the superstar wonâ€™t get anywhere near breaking the record.

Puka Nacuaâ€¦

Needs four receptions to break Jaylen Waddleâ€™s record for the most receptions by a rookie (104)
Needs 11 receiving yards to pass Jaâ€™Marr Chase (1,455) and 29 to break Bill Gromanâ€™s record for the most receiving yards by a rookie (1,473)

The Los Angeles Rams got a steal in the fifth round of the 2023 NFL Draft with Nacua. The former BYU pass catcher has been the clear-cut best rookie wide receiver this year. Despite playing all but four games with Cooper Kupp and his 23.4% target share, Nacua is on track to break two rookie records. The Rams will sit Matthew Stafford and other key starters in Week 18. However, expect the rookie to play long enough to break both records before taking a seat on the bench.

Nacua has had four or more receptions in all but two games this season. He has totaled at least 29 receiving yards in 87.5% of the games, including 118 or more in back-to-back contests. Meanwhile, the San Francisco 49ers will likely rest key starters with nothing to play for in Week 18. While Kupp didnâ€™t play in the Week 2 matchup against the 49ers, Nacua had 147 receiving yards on 15 receptions against the division rivals. Expect Nacua will only play long enough to re-write the history books.

DeAndre Hopkinsâ€¦

Needs seven receptions to earn a $250k bonus
Needs 39 receiving yards to earn a $250k bonus
Needs two receiving touchdowns to earn a $250k bonus

While the Tennessee Titans have been eliminated from the playoffs, that might play into Hopkinsâ€™ hands this week. The team has nothing to play for except making their star wide receiver happy. Head coach Mike Vrabel is a player-friendly coach. Therefore, expect Hopkins to see targets force-fed his way. He should have no trouble totaling 39 or more receiving yards, reaching that mark in 75% of the games this season. However, the other two totals will be difficult to hit.

The star receiver has had seven or more receptions in only 25% of the games this year. Hopkins also had three of his six receiving touchdowns in one game, totaling one or fewer in the other 15 contests. However, he has a solid matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The AFC South division leaders rank in the top 13 in receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns surrendered to wide receivers. Bettors should expect Hopkins to reach the receiving yard total needed while the other two are likely out of reach.

Odell Beckham Jrâ€¦

Needs five receptions to earn a $250k bonus
Needs two receiving touchdowns to earn a $250k bonus

After their impressive 56-19 win over the Miami Dolphins in Week 16, the Baltimore Ravens have secured the No. 1 seed in the playoffs. Head coach John Harbaugh already announced Lamar Jackson wonâ€™t play in the meaningless Week 18 game. However, Tyler Huntley is a capable backup and can get Beckham at least one of these contract incentives. While the veteran wide receiver has had more than four receptions in only 14.3% of his games this season, expect the Ravens to do everything possible to help him get his bonus.

Unfortunately, Beckham is unlikely to score two receiving touchdowns despite the appealing matchup in Week 18. The Ravens face the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday. While this matchup means nothing to Baltimore, it is a must-win game for Pittsburgh. However, their pass defense has severely struggled this season, giving up 11.6 receptions per game to wide receivers. Despite having only two receptions on four targets in the Week 5 matchup against the Steelers, bettors should expect the Ravens to feed Beckham targets until he has five receptions.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.

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