NFL Week 18 Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions: Saturday (2023)
In Week 18 of our Saturday Football Player Prop Bets: Odds, Picks & Predictions we get to preview a doubleheader. The first game will be the 13-3 Kansas City Chiefs vs. the 6-10 Las Vegas Raiders and the second game will be the 7-9 Tennessee Titans vs. their division rival, the 8-8 Jacksonville Jaguars.
Both games have a lot on the line as the Chiefs are playing for the number one seed and a first-round bye, while the winner of the Titans and Jaguars game will clinch the division title and claim the four seed in the AFC. The great news for betting purposes is that since these games are being played on Saturday all players should be full participants with so much on the line. Finally, neither game should be impacted by weather as the Chiefs vs. Raiders will be played in a dome, and the Titans vs. Jaguars game is calling for clear skies in Jacksonville.
(Odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
NFL Week 18 Player Prop Bets, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (2023)
This week we will be highlighting the Same Game Parlay function on DraftKings. This function allows you to get alternative player props that are more conservative. Even though these more conservative individual props have worse odds, once you parlay them you can find ways to get to an overall bet that will give you plus odds on the week. If you want to learn more about the same game parlay, click here.
In this article, we will highlight the parlay and then break down each individual bet.
Chiefs vs. Raiders
• Darren Waller (TE – LV): Alternative Receiving Yards Over 25+
• Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC): Over 269.5 Passing Yards
• Travis Kelce (TE – KC): Over 59.5 Receiving Yards
• Single Game Parlay Odds: +125
Player: Darren Waller
Player Prop: Alternative Receiving Yards 25+
Recommendation: Bet the Over
Darren Waller has had a rough go of it in 2022. Waller has played 50% of the snaps in just five of 16 games this season. This marks the second season in a row that Waller has missed significant time after sitting out six games in 2021. The good news is he’s played in three straight and went over 50% of the snaps in Week 17 for the first time since Week 4. Waller has looked solid in his return averaging just under 60 receiving yards per game. This week the Raiders take on the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs are a beatable matchup for tight ends allowing the 15th most receiving yards on the year. In the five games vs. the Chiefs where Waller has played over 50% of the snaps, he has gone over 25 yards in all five of them. This matchup, along with the increased usage makes Waller a solid bet to hit his over in Week 18.
Player: Patrick Mahomes
Player Prop: Passing Yards 269.5
Recommendation: Bet the Over
Patrick Mahomes will look to put a stamp on his 2022 MVP candidacy with a win and a first-round bye vs. the Raiders in Week 18. Mahomes has been nothing short of masterful this season leading the NFL in passing yards and passing touchdowns. This week he will get to play a familiar foe on the road vs. the Las Vegas Raiders. Mahomes has been dominant vs. the Raiders in his career, but he has been elite when playing them on the road. In his four career starts in Oakland/Las Vegas, he has averaged 373 passing yards and 3.8 touchdowns per game. With the MVP on the line and his history of dominance vs. the Raiders, look for Mahomes to crush his over this week.
Player: Travis Kelce
Player Prop: Receiving Yards 59.5
Recommendation: Bet the Over
Travis Kelce hasn’t missed a beat this year putting up dominant numbers again in 2022. Kelce leads all tight ends in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns and it’s not even close. Heading into Week 18, Kelce has 19 more receptions, 400 more receiving yards, and 3 more touchdowns than the next tight end. This level of dominance should continue this week as the Chiefs face the Raiders. The Raiders have been league average vs. the tight end this season, allowing the 14th most receiving yards to the position. Furthermore, with Patrick Mahomes at the helm, Kelce has been unstoppable on the road vs. the Raiders. In the four games vs. Las Vegas, Kelce has averaged 8.8 receptions for 130 yards and one touchdown per game. This matchup, along with the number one seed on the line makes betting the over on Kelce’s receiving yards a must in Week 18.
Titans vs. Jaguars
• Derrick Henry (RB – TEN): Over 74.5 Rushing Yards
• Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAC): Over 229.5 Passing Yards
• Travis Etienne (RB – JAC): Under 94.5 Rushing Yards
Player: Derrick Henry
Player Prop: Alternative Rushing Yards 74.5
Recommendation: Bet the Over
Derrick Henry doesn’t seem to have lost a step in 2022 after an injury-shortened 2021. Henry is third in the NFL in rushing yards and tied for second in rushing touchdowns this season. In his career, Henry has enjoyed a lot of success on the ground vs. his division rivals, and the Jaguars are no different. In his last three games vs. Jacksonville, Henry has gone over 120 yards in each contest. The loss of starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill does pose a risk for Henry, but this season he has gone over 100 yards in every game that Tannehill has missed. This is why fading his rushing over isn’t advised in Week 18.
Player: Trevor Lawrence
Player Prop: Alternative Passing Yards 229.5
Recommendation: Bet the Over
Trevor Lawrence has looked to have turned a corner in his career seeing huge spikes in his production in 2022. Heading into Week 18, Lawrence has already thrown for 250 more passing yards and 12 more touchdowns than in his rookie season. This progress has led to him throwing for over 230 yards in 10 of 16 games. This includes a big game vs. the Titans back in Week 14. Lawrence threw for a season-high 368 passing yards and three touchdowns on his way to a 36-22 victory. Outside of that game vs. the Titans on the road, the next four of his highest passing yard performances came at home for Lawrence. Now playing this same Titans secondary at home should make us feel good about Lawrence throwing for at least 230 yards in Week 18.
Player: Travis Etienne
Player Prop: Alternative Rushing Yards 94.5
Recommendation: Bet the Under
Travis Etienne has been rolling over the last three weeks, going over 80 rushing yards in all three contests. However, before this three-game stretch, Etienne had a 17 carry for 32 rushing yards dud vs. this same Titans team back in Week 14. The Titans have been elite vs. the run this season allowing the second-fewest rushing yards to running backs in 2022. This includes not allowing a single running back to rush over 60 yards since Josh Jacobs in Week 3. Now with the season on the line, we should expect each team to lean into what they do best. Therefore, we should look to attack Etienne’s rushing under as the Jaguars look to beat a vulnerable Titans secondary through the air this week.
Season Long Betting Tracker
Individual Bets: 33-22 (60%)
Same Game Parlays: 3-8 (27%)
Sources: BettingPros, FantasyPros, DraftKings, Razzball, PFF, Pro Football Reference, and FFToday
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