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NFL Week 18 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz’s Favorites (2024)

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The fantasy football season has ended for most people. Some of the fantasy managers looking to scratch their competitive itch will turn to the player props market.

Week 18 can be a tricky one for player props. With some teams locked into a specific playoff seed and others eliminated from playoff contention altogether, motivation levels can be somewhat ambiguous. We'll have to take that into account with our plays.

The squishy motivation levels for Week 18 have prompted the sportsbooks to post fewer player props than usual, so our menu is somewhat limited. We're going to dial back on betting volume accordingly.

Last week was an unmitigated disaster. Let's make a few repairs and get the Hindenburg back on course. A quick recap of a rough week …

The wins: Tony Pollard under 57.5 rushing yards, Brandon Aiyuk over 67.5 receiving yards, Chris Godwin over 55.5 receiving yards

The losses: Jared Goff under 254.5 passing yards, Brock Purdy over 258.5 passing yards, Christian McCaffrey over 86.5 rushing yards, D'Andre Swift over 67.5 rushing yards, Jaren Hall over 26.5 rushing yards, Logan Thomas over 28.5 receiving yards, Cooper Kupp over 68.5 receiving yards, George Pickens under 49.5 receiving yards

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Fitz’s Week 18 NFL Player Prop Bets

  • Last week: 3-8
  • Season record: 81-79

Tyler Huntley UNDER 164.5 passing yards

The Ravens are locked into the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs and have little incentive to beat the Steelers other than the chance to spoil the playoff hopes of a hated division rival. Baltimore won't want to tip its hand to future playoff opponents, so Huntley will be running a vanilla playbook. He'll also be throwing to end-of-the-bench receivers like Tylan Wallace and Laquon Treadwell. The Steelers need to win this game for a chance to earn a wild-card berth and will come after Huntley with a pass rush that ranks ninth in pressure rate. When Huntley made four starts for the Ravens late in the 2022 regular season, he threw for fewer than 140 yards in all four games. Huntley has a career average of 5.8 yards per pass attempt, which suggests limited arm talent, to put it kindly.

Sam Howell UNDER 215.5 passing yards

Howell has been a mess lately. After leading the NFL in pass attempts and completions for much of the season, Howell has lost his way. Over his last four starts, Howell has averaged 113.5 passing yards, completing just 46.5% of his throws and averaging 4.6 yards per pass attempt. On Sunday, he'll run up against the highly motivated Dallas Cowboys, who need a win to secure the No. 2 seed in the NFC playoffs. The Cowboys are allowing 207.8 passing yards per game, fifth-fewest in the league, and are holding opposing QBs to a 59.9% completion percentage, fourth-lowest. Bet against a fireworks display from the wayward Howell.

Justin Fields OVER 255.5 passing + rushing yards

I'm convinced that Fields is going to damage the Green Bay defense on Sunday, but I'm not exactly sure how, so betting his passing + rushing prop covers me on two fronts. The Packers took advantage of the Vikings' QB woes last week and held Minnesota to 180 passing yards, but before that, the Green Bay pass defense has been in tatters. The Packers gave up 381 passing yards to Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers in Week 15, then let rookie QB Bryce Young and the Panthers gouge them for 312 passing yards in Week 16. The Packers have also had difficulty with running quarterbacks. They have allowed 392 rushing yards to QBs, third-most in the NFL. Back in Week 1, Fields threw for 216 yards and ran for 59 yards against the Packers. Since coming back from a dislocated thumb in Week 11, Fields has averaged 267.7 passing + rushing yards over six games. Weather shouldn't be a factor in Green Bay on Sunday, with the forecast calling for temperatures in the 30s, no precipitation and light winds. I think Fields is in for a big day.

Jahmyr Gibbs UNDER 51.5 rushing yards

The Lions are one of the teams with a Week 18 motivation level best described as “squishy.” Detroit is locked into no worse than the No. 3 seed and could conceivably move up to the No. 2 seed with a win over the Vikings coupled with a Cowboys loss to the Commanders. The second leg of that daily double seems unlikely, with Dallas favored over Washington by nearly two touchdowns. Lions head coach Dan Campbell says he's going to play his starters, but Campbell might pull back on the reins early. Gibbs splits snaps and touches with David Montgomery and is averaging 11.6 carries over his last eight games. He'll be up against a Vikings that has allowed the 13th-fewest rushing yards and 3.8 yards per carry to RBs.

George Pickens OVER 49.5 receiving yards

Pickens has been wildly unpredictable for much of the season, but he's turned into a monster the last couple of weeks, and I'm just going to ride the wave. Pickens has produced 195 yards and 131 yards in his last two games. Pickens' outburst coincides with the Steelers' insertion of Mason Rudolph at quarterback. The Rudolph-Pickens combo has clicked. I can't explain why, but I'll bet Pickens to produce again this week vs. the unmotivated Ravens.

Dalton Schultz OVER 43.5 receiving yards

Schultz has topped this number in two of his last three games, despite the fact that two of those games were against the Titans, who have allowed the fourth-fewest receiving yards to TEs this season. This week, the Texans have a must-win game against the Colts. Houston's C.J. Stroud might have to lean on his top tight end a little more heavily than usual this week, since WR Noah Brown is out with a back injury and WR Robert Woods is questionable with a hip injury. The Colts have allowed the eighth-most receptions and 10th-most receiving yards to TEs.

Mike Evans OVER 61.5 receiving yards

Evans has cleared this number in each of his last two games and four of his last six. He has a Week 18 matchup against a Panthers defense that he laid to waste in Week 13, catching seven passes for 162 yards and a touchdown. Evans is averaging 77.1 receiving yards per game, and his 1,233 receiving yards rank him 10th in the NFL in that category. My colleague Derek Brown points out in this week's installment of The Primer that Carolina has played single-coverage at the highest rate in the league since Week 12. Against single-high coverage this season, Evans has had a 26% target share and a 43.5% air-yard share, averaging 3.16 yards per route run.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

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