NFL Week 18 Player Prop Bets Picks & Predictions: Fitz’s Favorites (2025)

Betting player props in Week 18 is tricky. It can be hard to gauge motivation levels since some teams are locked into playoff seeds, and many teams have been eliminated from playoff contention.

And yet, there are going to be a lot of people betting player props this weekend. Most fantasy football leagues wrap up their seasons in Week 17, so a lot of fantasy enthusiasts will be looking to sate their appetite for action by diving headfirst into player props.

We're going to tread lightly in a traditionally unpredictable week, limiting our bet volume. But there are some appealing plays this week that have us ready to pounce.

Before we get to this week’s selections, a recap of Week 17 ...

The wins: Jared Goff over 250.5 passing yards, Bijan Robinson over 82.5 rushing yards, Demarcus Robinson under 17.5 receiving yards, Tyreek Hill over 54.5 receiving yards

The losses: Kyler Murray under 227.5 passing yards, Breece Hall over 46.5 rushing yards, Courtland Sutton over 63.5 receiving yards,

• Last week: 4-3
• Season record: 89-82

Fitz’s Favorite Week 18 NFL Player Prop Bets

All odds are courtesy of DraftKings, as of Friday, Jan. 3.

Zach Charbonnet OVER 53.5 rushing yards

The BettingPros Player Prop Cheat Sheet likes this one, projecting Charbonnet for 67 rushing yards and giving the over a 60% chance of hitting.

Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker III has missed three of Seattle's last four games. In the three contests Walker has missed, Charbonnet has averaged 15 carries and 81.7 rushing yards. Walker is on injured reserve and won't play in the season finale.

The Seahawks will face the unmotivated Rams, who have nothing to play for. Rams head coach Sean McVay has said he'll be resting starters in Week 18. The Rams' run defense isn't exactly airtight, even when the team has something to play for, ranking 20th in DVOA.

Zach Ertz OVER 42.5 receiving yards

Ertz caught 6-of-7 targets for 72 yards last week against the Falcons. He seems to have become a favorite third-down target for rookie QB Jayden Daniels.

There's a contract incentive for Ertz that makes the over on his receiving yardage appealing. The veteran tight end needs 90 receiving yards to reach 700 yards for the season and earn a $250,000 bonus. It's a tall order, but Ertz figures to be prominently involved this week against the Cowboys. He had six catches for 38 yards and a touchdown when he last faced the Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day.

Marvin Mims OVER 38.5 receiving yards

Mims has been on a heater, averaging 63.8 receiving yards over his last six games. He's had at least three receptions in five consecutive games, averaging 15.9 yards per catch over that span.

Although Mims is a part-time player in the Denver offense, he's had his two highest snap counts of the season in his last two games, playing 30 snaps against the Chargers in Week 16 and 28 snaps against the Bengals in Week 17. And when he's in the game, Broncos head coach Sean Payton endeavors to get the ball into Mims' hands. The over on Mims’ receiving yardage is my favorite play of the week.

Jameson Williams OVER 58.5 receiving yards

Williams has cleared this number in five of his last seven games, averaging 79.0 receiving yards a game over that stretch. Since coming back from a two-game suspension in Week 10, Williams has had at least five targets and three receptions in every game.

Sunday night's game against the Vikings sets up well for Williams. Minnesota has allowed the second-most receiving yards to wide receivers. The Vikings are giving up 186.1 receiving yards per game to WRs. And Minnesota has an extreme pass-funnel defense, with opponents throwing against the Vikings on a league-high 64.3% of their offensive snaps. The Lions will be playing without RB David Montgomery (knee), and while RB Jahmyr Gibbs is terrific, Detroit might not be able to lean heavily on its running game.

Russell Wilson UNDER 228.5 passing yards

We’re betting both of the quarterbacks in Saturday's Bengals-Steelers game, and we’re going with the under on Russ.

Yes, Wilson threw for 414 yards and three touchdowns when he last faced the Bengals in Week 13. But since then, the Pittsburgh passing game has gone into a tailspin.

Wilson has fallen short of this number in four consecutive games. He's averaged 177 passing yards a game and 6.0 yards per attempt over that span.

Although the Steelers beat the Bengals 44-38 in Week 13, I don't think they want to get into another shootout with Joe Burrow and the Bengals — especially not with the Steelers' own passing game misfiring lately. Expect a conservative offensive gameplan from Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith. Take the under here.

Joe Burrow OVER 283.5 passing yards

I generally don't like betting the over on passing totals this high, but I think it's warranted here.

Burrow has been scorching hot for the last two months. He's cleared this number in five of his last seven games, averaging 342.4 passing yards a game over that stretch.

Passing volume is perhaps the primary reason this bet is so appealing. Since Week 8, Burrow has averaged 42.2 pass attempts per game, with at least 37 pass attempts in 8-of-9 games over that span. The Bengals probably won't be able to lean too heavily on their running game this week with RB Chase Brown dealing with a high-ankle-sprain.

The Bengals need to win this game to keep their playoff hopes alive, and they'll have to go through the division-rival Steelers. Pittsburgh's pass defense has allowed the 10th-most passing yards. They've struggled against good quarterbacks lately, with Jalen Hurts dropping 290 passing yards on the Steelers in Week 15 and Patrick Mahomes throwing for 320 yards against them in Week 17. Burrow completed 28-of-39 passes for 309 yards against the Steelers in Week 13.

The bar is high, but the red-hot Burrow should be able to clear it.