NFL Week 18 Playoff-Related Matchups: Best Bets Odds & Predictions (2022)
The NFL regular season is coming to an end. A few years ago, the NFL made the last week of the regular season all division games to make things as interesting as possible. Well, we got exactly that this year. While there are 16 games this weekend, only three have zero playoff implications.
The two NFC South division matchups (Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints) have zero playoff impact. The Buccaneers have won the division and are locked into the No. 4 seed. Meanwhile, the other three teams have been eliminated from the playoffs.
In the AFC, the only game without any playoff impact is the contest between the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts. While both teams won’t make the playoffs, plenty is on the line in this matchup. If the Texans lose, they will secure the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. However, if Houston wins and the Chicago Bears lose, the Texans will slide to the No. 2 pick in the draft, while the Colts could pick as high as third overall. With the future of Bryce Young hanging in the balance, both teams have every reason possible to try and lose this game.
Meanwhile, Week 17’s matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals was suspended after safety Damar Hamlin collapsed on the field. The NFL has decided to call the game a no-contest and not count it, meaning both teams will only play 16 games this season. With that decision, the playoff picture in the AFC is dramatically different now than it was on Monday morning.
With 13 meaningful games this weekend, what impact does that have on the spread, and how should gamblers bet on it? Let’s dive into it.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
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NFL Week 18 Playoff-Related Matchups: Best Bets Odds & Predictions (2022)
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders (+9)
The Chiefs can secure the No. 1 seed in the AFC with a win over the Raiders. Kansas City has won four games in a row, with a 7.3 average margin of victory. However, they faced the Texans and Denver Broncos twice during that span, winning all three games by six points or fewer. While the Raiders can’t make the playoffs, they would love nothing more than to play spoilers for their divisional rivals. In the matchup between these two teams earlier this season, the Chiefs won 30-29 in Kansas City.
My Pick: LV +9 (-110)
Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5)
This matchup will determine the AFC South division winner and the No. 4 seed in the conference. The Titans have lost six in a row, including 36-22 to the Jaguars in Week 14. Meanwhile, Jacksonville has won six of the past eight games. If Tennessee loses this game, they are out of the playoff mix. Meanwhile, Jacksonville can still make the playoffs as a wild card team despite losing to the Titans. However, the New England Patriots, Miami Dolphins and Pittsburgh Steelers would all have to lose on Sunday for the Jaguars to sneak their way into the postseason with an 8-9 record.
My Pick: JAC -6.5 (-105)
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-7)
Cincinnati has locked up the AFC North division title after last week’s matchup against Buffalo was declared a no-contest. Unfortunately, that means they can no longer get the No. 1 seed. Yet, they still have a chance to earn the No. 2 seed. The Bengals would need to win this game and see the Patriots defeat the Bills. Meanwhile, the Ravens are unlikely to win this game as Lamar Jackson is trending towards not playing again this week. With their playoff spot locked up and no chance at winning the division, Baltimore has no reason to put the star quarterback on the field.
My Pick: CIN -7 (-110)
Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)
A month ago, the Steelers appeared on their way to a losing record and potentially a top-10 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. However, they’ve won three in a row and five of their past six contests. With a win over the Browns and losses by the Patriots and Dolphins, the Steelers will make the playoffs for the third-straight year. Meanwhile, the Browns were eliminated from the postseason in Week 16 after losing to the Saints. This game should be close, but are you going to bet against Mike Tomlin with the playoffs on the line?
My Pick: PIT -2.5 (-110)
Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears (+7.5)
After losing last week to the Green Bay Packers, the Vikings can’t get the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs. However, they can move back into the No. 2 slot with a win over the Bears and an Arizona Cardinals victory over the San Francisco 49ers. Meanwhile, the Bears have nothing on the line this week. Furthermore, with a Houston win over Indianapolis and a Chicago loss, the Bears would secure the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. With Justin Fields not playing with a hip injury, the Vikings should steamroll the Bears this week.
My Pick: MIN -7.5 (-105)
New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins (-3)
The Dolphins were division contenders six weeks ago. After starting the year 8-3, Miami has lost five in a row. They went from controlling their playoff fate to needing help to make the postseason. Miami will make the playoffs if they defeat the Jets and the Bills beat the Patriots. However, the Dolphins won’t have Tua Tagovailoa, and Teddy Bridgewater might not play, meaning Skylar Thompson will start. The Jets can’t make the playoffs, but you know Robert Saleh would like to end the year with a win after losing five straight games.
My Pick: NYJ +3 (-110)
New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills (-7.5)
Following their win over the Dolphins last week, the Patriots control their playoff fate. If they defeat the Bills, they secure the final wild card spot in the AFC. However, that is easier said than done. They lost 24-10 against the Bills in Week 13 in New England. Furthermore, the Patriots lost two in a row before last week. Meanwhile, Buffalo must win this game or hope the Ravens defeat the Bengals to secure the No. 2 seed. They could get the No. 1 but would need the Chiefs to lose on Saturday. The team will be fired up and emotional, given the positive news about Damar Hamlin. Don’t be surprised if the Bills have a statement win.
My Pick: BUF -7.5 (-105)
Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders (+7)
Dallas could be a top-two seed or the No. 5 seed, depending on what happens this weekend. If the Philadelphia Eagles win, the Cowboys will be the five seed regardless if they win or lose. However, they will be division winners and get a top-two seed with a win and an Eagles’ loss. Depending on whether the San Francisco 49ers win or lose, the Cowboys could be the No. 1 or No. 2 seed. With Dallas, Philadelphia and San Francisco all playing simultaneously, expect plenty of scoreboard-watching. Meanwhile, the Commanders have been eliminated from the playoffs, and rookie Sam Howell will make his first career start.
My Pick: DAL -7 (-110)
Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers (-14)
Following their comeback win over the Raiders last week, the 49ers remain in contention for the No. 1 seed. They will guarantee themselves a top-two seed with a win. However, San Francisco will secure the No. 1 and the first-round bye with a win, an Eagles loss and a Dallas win. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have nothing on the line this week. With the Eagles playing simultaneously, the 49ers will be scoreboard-watching. San Francisco could pull some starters in the second half if Philadelphia appears on its way to a win, opening up the back door cover for Arizona.
My Pick: Ideally avoid. SF -14 (-110) if forced to pick.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks (-6)
Seattle has everything on the line in this game. Assuming the Seahawks win, they will become the biggest Detroit Lions fans in the world. Seattle will make the playoffs as the final wild card team with a win over the Rams and a Detroit victory. However, a loss to Los Angeles will eliminate them from the postseason. Meanwhile, the Rams have won two of their past four games since adding Baker Mayfield. More importantly, the Seahawks only won 27-23 in Week 13 against the Rams, despite John Wolford totaling only 178 passing yards and two interceptions.
My Pick: LA +6 (-105)
New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-14)
With a win this week, Philadelphia will be the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs. However, if they lose and the Cowboys win, the Eagles will fall to the five-seed and start the playoffs on the road in Tampa Bay. Fortunately for them, the Giants have nothing to play for this weekend. They locked up their playoff spot last week with a win over the Colts but are stuck in the sixth slot. We will see how much New York plays their starters, but the spread suggests it won’t be for the entire game.
My Pick: PHI -14 (-110)
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos (-2.5)
This game could have zero playoff impact come kickoff. If the Bengals defeat the Ravens earlier in the day, the Chargers will be the No. 5 seed without needing to win. However, if the Ravens win, they must beat the Broncos to get the five seed. Earning the No. 5 slot is critical, as their first-round matchup will be against the Titans or Jaguars instead of the Bills or Bengals. However, with Lamar Jackson trending towards missing his fifth straight game, the Broncos have become favorites in this game. The expectation is that the Bengals will beat the Ravens, and the Chargers will sit key starters like Justin Herbert instead of playing them in a meaningless contest.
My Pick: Ideally Avoid. LAC +2.5 (-115) if Baltimore wins and DEN -2.5 (-115) if Cincinnati wins.
Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers (-5)
The final game of Week 18 might be the most critical. If the Seahawks lose to the Rams, the winner of this matchup will be the last wild card team in the NFC. However, the Lions will be eliminated from the postseason if Seattle wins. Either way, the Packers are in the playoffs with a win. More importantly, the Lions are only in this position after an embarrassing 37-23 loss to the Panthers in Week 16. Had they won that game, Detroit would be in the postseason with a win on Sunday night. Meanwhile, Green Bay is the second-hottest team in the conference, winning four in a row. Do you want to bet against Aaron Rodgers at home with the playoffs on the line? I sure don’t!
My Pick: GB -5 (-110)
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