NFL Week 18 Sports Betting Takeaways: What We Learned (2022)
The 2022 NFL season has come to an end. Here are things to take away from the final week of the season.
Kansas City Chiefs 31 – Las Vegas Raiders 13
Time is a Flat Circle
The Kansas City Chiefs are once again the AFC’s top seed, and Super Bowl favorites. The Chiefs are somewhat fortunate to have claimed the no.1 seed, as Week 17’s no-contest between the Bills and Bengals afforded them the inside track to the conference’s lone bye– but regardless, the Chiefs 14-3 record is no fluke, and they’re playing as well as any team in the NFL.
One note regarding the bets placed on this game: It was stunning to see such support for the Raiders in this spot. Kansas City is usually as public of a bet as it gets, yet the majority of both tickets and cash were wagered on Las Vegas prior to this game. Sometimes we as bettors need reminders not to bet against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.
Jacksonville Jaguars 20 – Tennessee Titans 16
Duval county, you’re in good hands
Duval County, welcome to the postseason. And, regardless of how far they advance through the postseason, what a season it was for Jacksonville. The once 4-8 Jaguars rattled off five consecutive victories en route to their unlikely division title, and now have the honor of hosting the Los Angeles Chargers in the wild card round. Too, on this run, second-year pro Trevor Lawrence has earned the distinction of being one of the best young QB’s in the NFL. Duval county, you’re in good hands.
Conversely, my sympathies to you, Tennessee fans. It was a 7-3 start and few foresaw this pending collapse. The Titans are set up with one of the NFL’s best coaches in Mike Vrabel, but their future is murky at the QB position. Be on the lookout for Tennessee this offseason.
Atlanta Falcons 30 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17
The Game that Mattered the Least
Kindly, this game didn’t matter at all. Atlanta had been eliminated from postseason contention for some time, whereas the Buccaneers had already secured the NFC’s no.4 seed. Still, Tampa confounded us all in electing to play their starters for a majority of this contest. I suppose the Bucs wanted to ‘keep fresh’ prior to their looming date with the Cowboys, but their starters certainly didn’t in spire confidence in the first half.
Buffalo Bills 35 – New England Patriots 23
Good Night, NE
An emotional day in Buffalo culminated in a decisive victory over their division rival. The Bills were fueled by two (!!) kickoff return touchdowns, and Josh Allen’s right arm, as they thwarted the Patriots’ postseason aspirations. Buffalo will now welcome the Miami Dolphins to Highmark Stadium, where they find themselves as 9.5 point favorites over their division rival in the wildcard round.
Conversely, New England misses out on the postseason for the second time in three years with this loss. It was a frustrating year for the Pats and their fans, and the team’s offense was often miserable to watch. An 8-9 season is not glaringly bad, but let’s recall that New England’s most notable victory came at the expense of Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions. Surely (hopefully) change is on the horizon for New England in 2023.
Minnesota Vikings 29 – Chicago Bears 13
The Best Tank
Bravo, Bears. Chicago ended the year on a ten game losing streak, but who cares?! The organization certainly must feel they’ve found their signal caller of the future in QB Justin Fields, and have now backed into the number one overall selection by virtue of the Texans upsetting the Colts. This is the dream scenario for a rebuilding franchise.
And Vikings, what a year it was. Minnesota’s record is flukey to a degree, but the offense (Justin Jefferson) has the firepower necessary to win any game, and they must like their chances versus New York in the wildcard round.
Cincinnati Bengals 27 – Baltimore Ravers 16
No Coin Flip Necessary
If the Ravens had won this game, the venue for the looming wildcard matchup between these two teams would have been determined by a coin flip– and thankfully, we did not have to resort to this. Baltimore all-but conceded this game to the Bengals. Star QB Lamar Jackson was unable to play once again due to injury, and the Ravens were also absent key offensive starters Mark Andrews, and J.K. Dobbins. Here’s hoping everyone is healthy next week, these two teams at full strength is a hell of a matchup.
Houston Texans 32 – Indianapolis Colts 31
Two is Better Than One
This game was so much more exciting than it had any right to be. Both these teams should have new Head Coaches, and new QB’s next season, but they put on some show on Sunday, culminating with perhaps the worst Hail Mary of all-time. Fourth-and-twenty with 0:50 remaining, the Texans not only scored, but converted the two-point attempt to win the game. In doing so, the Texans relinquished the number one pick in the draft to the Bears, a pick which this franchise sorely needed.
Perhaps the difference between the top two selections is negligible, but it’s an advantage which this franchise surely wishes they had.
Miami Dolphins 11 – New York Jets 6
The Worst Safety
For those of you who had bet the Jets +4, I feel your pain. new York covered for every second of this contest, and even a few minutes afterwords before the game’s final play was ruled a safety. We suck it up, and we move on.
It was not a fun game to watch, but the Dolphins endured, finding their way to the postseason for the first time since 2016. Let’s hope that QB Tua Tagovailoa can suit up in Buffalo next week, as his presence should give Miami a chance at usurping the once Super Bowl favorites0– recall the Bills vs. Dolphins matchup in Week 15.
Carolina Panthers 10 – New Orleans Saints 7
Slingin’ Sam Darnold
The Panthers won despite one of the least prolific passing performances of all time. Starting QB Sam Darnold completed five passes all afternoon, accounting for 43 total yards through the air– quite a feat. The circumstances of victory were/are comical, but the win is nonetheless significant. Carolina has a crucial decision looming: Retain interim HC Steve Wilks, or look elsewhere for a coach as they lean fully into an organizational rebuild.
Pittsburgh Steelers 28 – Cleveland Browns 14
Death, Taxes, and the Steelers having a Winning Record
It was halfway through the season– the Pittsburgh Steelers were 2-6, and Mike Tomlin was on the verge of his first losing season in his tenure as Pitt’s HC. And suddenly, the Steelers were one of the NFL’s better teams over the back half of the year. They may have narrowly missed the postseason, but the lesson is officially learned: Never count out the Pittsburgh Steelers. Kudos to you, Pittsburgh.
As to Cleveland, newly(ish)-acquired QB Deshaun Watson certainly didn’t inspire over the back half of the season. Perhaps the situation hindered his performance in his debut season with the Browns, but now backup Jacoby Brissett was undoubtedly better in his stint as the team’s starter. A crucial year looms for Watson and his career.
Denver Broncos 31 – Los Angeles Chargers 28
The Worst Loss
As a freelance writer, I hesitate to criticize NFL coaches for their decision making, but… What the hell, Brandon Staley? Given the Baltimore Ravens’ loss, this was the definition of an inconsequential game. The Chargers were locked into the AFC’s fifth seed, and a matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars loomed. Yet, Staley elected to play his starters for near the entirety of this game. At what cost?–
The Chargers endured injuries to WR Mike Williams, DE Joey Bosa, and LB Kenneth Murray in their loss to Denver. And, for a team so notorious for their injury misfortune, it is confounding that they elected to put their most crucial players in harm’s way. Los Angeles had been on a roll prior to this loss, here’s hoping this result does not derail their postseason aspirations.
Philadelphia Eagles 22 – New York Giants 16
Philly Favorites
It looked for a while as if the Eagles would waltz their way into the postseason, but New York gave their best effort to make it contentious. Ultimately, Philadelphia won the game, and finally earned the NFC’s top seed in QB Jalen Hurts’ return– but we must remember that these are grown men playing the world’s most violent game. There are no gimme’s in the NFL.
The Eagles have stumbled their way to the postseason, but their body of work is immaculate. Expect Philly to work out their more recent kinks in the bye week, and anticipate a raucous crowd as they host a Divisional Round postseason game in two weeks time.
San Francisco 49ers 38 – Arizona Cardinals 13
San Fran: Surging at the Right Time
For a moment, this line looked as foolish as the aforementioned Eagles’ spread. But San Fran flexed their muscles, and Arizona lacked the depth necessary to compete with such a talented team. A testament to HC Kyle Shanahan’s genius, the 49ers Super Bowl prospects are near independent of whomever is under center for the team. Third-string rookie Brock Purdy has thoroughly impressed in his role, as San Fran rightfully keeps pace with the Eagles in the eyes of the oddsmakers.
A most crucial wildcard matchup with the Seahawks awaits, but there are few reasons to suspect that the 49ers might be in jeopardy on their home turf.
Seattle Seahawks 19 – Los Angeles Rams 16
The Most Unlikely Playoff Berth
If this indeed HC Sean McVay’s last game with the Rams, cheers to you. Injuries derailed the reigning Super Bowl champs’ season early, yet the Rams continued to fight down the stretch, and nearly stole this game from their division rivals. Such efforts do not go unnoticed, especially for relief QB Baker Mayfield.
And to the victor goes the spoils. Many expected the Seahawks to be one of the NFL’s worst teams this season– yet someway, somehow, Geno Smith and the boys find themselves in the postseason. What a year it was for the journeyman QB. It is a tall-task for Seattle as they venture to face their rival 49ers in the wildcard round, but they are no doubt happy to be here.
Washington Commanders 26 – Dallas Cowboys 6
Dallas, We Have a Problem
The Cowboys are confounding. The team has teetered the line of fraudulence, and contention masterfully (or, maddeningly?) throughout the year. We want to believe in Dallas. Their defense has at times been excellent, and their offensive potential is obvious– but their ‘fluke’ performances are hard to ignore.
The Cowboys now venture to Tampa Bay to take on Tom Brady’s Bucs, in what may be the most compelling matchup of wildcard weekend. These two teams met to kick off the 2022 season, and for one squad it will end just as it begun.
Detroit Lions 20 – Green Bay Packers 16
The Lions are Tough as Hell
“They had nothing to play for†— They did, but they didn’t. Detroit prepped all week as if this was their first playoff game since 2016, and certainly cherished the opportunity to play spoiler to the Green Bay Packers’ late season reclamation. There was a time when the Lions were 1-7, and we questioned the future of this regime– those days are long gone. Detroit’s efforts over these past couple months are commendable, they are the team that should be in the postseason.
In regard to the Packers, Green Bay’s season near mirrored Detroit’s. For a long while it looked as if they were playing for nothing, wasting QB Aaron Rodgers’ waning years, but they continued to fight. The future is certainly murky for the Pack and the future Hall-of-Famer, but what a Regular Season finale it was.
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