Navigate

NFL Week 18 Sunday Night Football Picks & Player Prop Bets (Vikings vs. Lions)

by |

Welcome to the final NFL betting article for the NFL regular season from BettingPros! I'm Andrew Erickson, your guide to Week 18's Sunday Night Football nightcap matchup between the Lions and Vikings. In this standalone SNF breakdown, we're laser-focused on the highly anticipated showdown for the NFC No. 1 seed as we hit the final section of the NFL regular season. From expert insights on the spread and total to can't-miss player props, I'll help you craft the perfect single-game parlay to build off your earlier winnings and/or chase your losses from the early slate of games.

Get ready, folks-it's time to place those BETS. Let's dive into my top picks and player prop bets for Sunday Night Football. And let’s see who will be crowned KING OF THE NORTH.

For a limited time, you can save $30 off your first month of Fubo (Try for Free) >>

Sunday Night Football Primer

Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions

Sides:

  • The Vikings have failed to cover the spread in four of their last seven games as underdogs.
  • The Vikings have been the first to 10 points in 15 of their last 16 games.
  • The Vikings have won each of their last nine games.
  • The Vikings have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 22 games.
  • They are 11-5 ATS this season under Sam Darnold.
  • The Vikings have covered the spread in each of their last four games.
  • As home favorites, the Vikings are 14-4 on the Moneyline (78%) but just 9-10 ATS (45%).
  • The Vikings have dropped eight of their last 12 home games ATS as a favorite.
  • All but eight of the Vikings’ last 30 games have been decided by eight points or fewer (75%).
  • The Vikings have been the first to 10 points in 15 of their last 16 games.
  • The Vikings have been the first to 10 points in their last seven road games.
  • The Vikings are 8-4-2 ATS as road favorites.
  • The Lions have covered the spread in 10 of their last 13 games.
  • The Lions have covered the spread in 17 of their last 23 games (74%).
  • The Lions are 25-11 ATS as favorites.
  • They have been 70%-plus ATS favorites since the start of 2023 and are 21-9 ATS over their last 30 games (70%). When in doubt? Lions ATS for the win.
  • The Lions have won 13 of their last 14 games.
  • The Lions have covered the spread as favorites in 16 of their last 21 games.
  • The Lions have won 13 of their last 16 home games.
  • The Lions have won their last 13 games against opponents on a winning streak.
  • The Lions have been the first to 15 points in 18 of their last 20 games.
  • The Lions have been the first to 15 points in 11 of their last 12 home games.
  • The Lions have covered the spread in their last 13 road games following a home win.
  • The Lions have won each of their last 10 games following a loss
  • The Lions have covered the spread in each of their last eight games against the Vikings.
  • The Lions have covered the spread in 12 of their last 14 road games.

Totals:

  • Twelve of the Vikings' last 19 games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Eleven of the Vikings’ last 20 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Vikings are 8-8 toward the UNDER this season.
  • They are 5-3 toward the under at home, averaging over 47 points per game.
  • The Vikings are 5-11-1 toward the over in Minnesota since the start of 2023.
  • Seven of the Vikings' last eight games against NFC North opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Each of the last six games between the Vikings and Lions has gone OVER the total points line.
  • Three of the Lions' last five road games have gone under the total.
  • Nine of the Lions’ last 13 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eighteen of the Lions' last 27 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The average total in the Lions' last 27 home games has been 55.7 points; 74% (20/27) of the games have scored at least 51 points.
  • Ten of the Lions' last 14 home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Four of the Lions' last games have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

This Lions-Vikings game total is really pushing my love for the OVER on the Coors Field of the NFL. The game total is bonkers at 56/56.5 points. But the fact that it has come down from 57/57.5-point total is eye-opening to me.

Per BetIQ, since 2003, games that have closed with totals of 57-plus are 17-7 toward the over (70%). But games that have closed at 56.5-55.5 have hit the under at 13-29 (31%).

We will see where this line settles around kick-off, and that's where I will ultimately make my call. If we close at 57, we are taking over (oh, fun). But if it's anything lower, at 56.5 or 56 points, I am going with the trends toward the under on the highest game total of the season. Is this a fun bet? Nope. But we can get exposure to some fun with player props as we will see some fireworks in this game.

But before we dive into the props, let’s pick sides. Obviously, it’s tough in a marquee matchup. But in a game under this scenario, the trends favor Minnesota by a drastic margin. Detroit is 3-2 ATS in unders this season. The Vikings have played in nine unders this season. 7-2 ATS. 9-0 straight up.

The recipe for success in a Vikings’ upset on Sunday night will come down to Brian Flores’ defense defeating Ben Johnson’s offense.

Interesting trend in this NFC North rematches.

Five of the last seven quarterbacks who have faced the Vikings have all exceeded their passing yards projection by an average of +92 passing yards.

The only ones who have failed to hit the passing yards markers? Caleb Williams and Jordan Love in their rematches against the Vikings.

Props:

In the passing game, Jared Goff was efficient, completing 26 of 34 passes for 303 yards and three touchdowns. Goff has recorded 269+ passing yards in six of the Lions' last seven games.

Sam LaPorta has 3.5-plus receptions in four straight games and 4.5 or more in three of his last four.

Jameson Williams was another significant contributor, catching 5 of 8 targets for 36 yards, and he recorded 21 air yards with a TD reception in the red zone. His aDOT was 2.6, indicating a relatively short average depth of target. Jameson Williams is 33 receiving yards away from 1,000.

Jahmyr Gibbs caught all 4 of his targets for 46 yards, including a long reception of 19 yards. His receiving usage was a key part of the Lions' offense, and he contributed 12% of the total Target share. Gibbs also has 33-plus receiving yards in three straight games. He went for 44 yards the last time these teams played. Given how stingy the Vikings’ defense is, expect Gibbs to be featured more as a receiver than a rusher.

Sam Darnold has recorded 231+ passing yards in the Vikings' last 11 games.

T.J. Hockenson had six targets last week, hauling in 5 receptions for 68 yards. Hockenson has had a steady amount of targets/receptions since returning from his injury, but he still hasn’t scored. Given the shootout environment, this is as good a time as ever in a #revengegame for the Hock to hit paydirt. I also love his odds for a first TD score at +1400.

My Picks:

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App