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NFL Week 2 Anytime Touchdown Scorer Picks & Predictions (2024)

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Last week I kicked off the 2024 NFL season by going 5-7 with my Anytime Touchdown (ATD) bets. That included a pair of First Touchdown (FTD) hits. I can say with relative certainty that in years past, that would have netted a small profit. The result this time around, however, was -0.16 units.

Most of the sportsbooks have adjusted the pricing of the ATD market compared to years past. This is why I prefer to keep my exposure to ATD and FTD bets relatively low. The FTD bets in particular are fun to use in conjunction with profit boosts and risk-free bets. But for this column, I am tracking these using bet sizes of 0.4 units on ATD and 0.1 units on FTD. Use your discretion and adjust as you see fit. We compare anytime touchdown stats to prop bet odds and projections to help identify this week's best bets.

Best NFL Week 2 Anytime TD Scorer Prop Bets

(All wagers are 0.5 units)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions

Chris Godwin

  • Anytime TD Odds: +250 at ESPNBet
  • First TD Odds: +1700 at Fanatics Sportsbook

I do not want to get into the habit of taking too many long shots for ATDs, but I do have a few sprinkled in this week, and this is one of my favorites. Chris Godwin graded out as the top wide receiver in the NFL last week according to Pro Football Focus. He caught all eight of his targets and scored a third-quarter touchdown. This week he faces an extreme pass-funnel defense in the Detroit Lions. Baker Mayfield should be throwing often, and Godwin will be his first or second read more often than not.

Tampa Bay moves their wide receivers around quite a bit, but I like that Godwin had the highest percentage of snaps in which he lined up on the right side of the offensive formation. This means Godwin should see Carlton Davis in coverage a fair amount. Davis spent the first six years of his NFL career in Tampa before joining the Lions this year. Davis allowed a league-high 114 receiving yards in Week 1 on nine receptions. The Buccaneers know Davis's strengths and weaknesses, and I expect them to take advantage of him on Sunday.

New York Jets at Tennessee Titans

Garrett Wilson

Garrett Wilson was tied for sixth in the NFL with 11 Week 1 targets. Four of those targets came in the first quarter. The New York Jets lack playmakers outside of Wilson and running back Breece Hall, so Wilson should get plenty of looks again in Week 2. Tennessee's defense was stingy last week but was not fully tested against a rookie quarterback in Caleb Williams. The Titans allowed the third-most receptions to opposing wide receivers last year. This feels like a good spot for Garrett Wilson to have a large number of catches and hopefully find the end zone.

Seattle Seahawks at New England Patriots

DK Metcalf

DK Metcalf had a quiet game in Seattle's Week 1 victory. Metcalf finished the game with just four targets. Since 2021, there were only four other games in which Metcalf was targeted fewer than five times. In the games immediately following those outings, Metcalf was targeted 8, 10, 9, and 12 times. I expect similar usage on Sunday when the Seahawks face the New England Patriots. Second-year cornerback Christian Gonzalez is one of the few cornerbacks in the NFL who has the physical tools to potentially keep up with Metcalf. I still trust Metcalf's experience as well as his connection with Geno Smith. Metcalf has seven touchdowns in 15 career games with Smith under center. We are getting an excellent price on Metcalf to score given these factors.

Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars

Jerome Ford

The Cleveland Browns were awful on offense in Week 1. Quarterback Deshaun Watson has looked like a shell of his former self in recent years. Unless he can turn it around quickly, this is a team that will want to win on the ground. Cleveland is likely to ride Jerome Ford until the proverbial wheels fall off. Or at least until Nick Chubb comes back, whichever is first. Ford had 18 touches last week even though Cleveland never possessed the ball with a lead. They were also down by 16-plus points for the entire second half. In fact, Ford ran for a score in the final 30 seconds even though the Browns were behind 33-10 at the time. Ford's usage will be there, and this should be a positive matchup for him.

Last week against Jacksonville, Miami Dolphins running back De'Von Achane had 10 carries, including a goal-line score. He also added seven receptions. The Jaguars allowed an average of 1.48 yards before contact per rush against Miami. That was the third-highest total in the NFL. Ford should get all the work he can handle in Week 2. We just have to hope that includes a short touchdown run.   

San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings

Jordan Mason

My first real chalky ATD bet for Week 2 is Jordan Mason of the San Francisco 49ers. Mason filled in for Christian McCaffrey last week and more than held his own. The third-year pro ran for 147 yards and a touchdown in San Francisco's victory over the New York Jets. He should continue to be featured this week, as McCaffrey has once again been ruled out. The Minnesota Vikings looked good defensively last week, but they faced one the worst offenses in the NFL when they easily handled the New York Giants. San Francisco will pose a much bigger threat. McCaffrey scored twice when these teams met a year ago, and I am picking Jordan Mason to score on Sunday.

Indianapolis Colts at Green Bay Packers

Marshawn Lloyd

  • Anytime TD Odds: +1200 at ESPNBet
  • First TD Odds: +4000 at ESPNBet

If you want a safer ATD pick from the Week 2 game between the Indianapolis Colts and Green Bay Packers, there are several options to choose from. Most notably, both starting quarterbacks (Anthony Richardson and Malik Willis) as well as both starting running backs (Jonathan Taylor and Josh Jacobs). However, the price on Marshawn Lloyd's ATD prop in particular is calling my name. Lloyd suffered a hamstring injury last month which has delayed his NFL debut. Green Bay has listed him as questionable on the final injury report. I believe he will play in this game. The amount of work Lloyd would get if cleared is up for debate, but the matchup itself is excellent.

The Colts allowed Joe Mixon to run for 153 yards and a touchdown on them a week ago. That came on the heels of a 2023 season which saw opposing running backs rush for 16 scores against them. This is not a great run defense by any means and with the Packers expected to start Willis at quarterback, that probably means a heavy dose of all available running backs. I would not fault anyone for taking Jacobs (+120/+650 at Bet365) or even Emanuel Wilson (+650/+2800 on DraftKings). But I am going to shoot my shot and place an ATD bet on Marshawn Lloyd in Week 2.

Los Angeles Chargers at Carolina Panthers

Gus Edwards

J.K. Dobbins was great in his return to action last week after missing a year with an Achilles tear. Dobbins ran for 135 yards and a touchdown on just 10 carries against the Las Vegas Raiders. Meanwhile, Gus Edwards plodded his way to 26 yards on 11 attempts. I'm sure Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh made brother John proud as he successfully recreated the 2020 Baltimore Ravens backfield. While I concede that Dobbins is easily the greater home run threat of the two, I am using my ATD and FTD picks on Edwards in Week 2.

The Chargers face the Carolina Panthers on Sunday. Carolina seemed to pick up right where they left off last season as the worst team in the NFL. They allowed two more rushing touchdowns after ceding a league-worst 20 last year. This is about as good a matchup as you can get for both Chargers running backs. Edwards got the start over Dobbins last week, which is why I lean towards Edwards here. He also figures to get the bulk of any potential goalline carries. Having said that, I would not talk anyone out of Dobbins. The best prices I have found for Dobbins are +150 for ATD and +700 for FTD over at FanDuel Sportsbook.

New York Giants at Washington Commanders

Brian Robinson Jr.

  • Anytime TD Odds: +150 at ESPNBet
  • First TD Odds: +850 at Fanatics Sportsbook

I think the books are sleeping on Robinson a bit in both the ATD and FTD markets. Quarterback Jayden Daniels ran for two scores to Robinson's one last week. Also, both of Daniels' touchdown runs were one-yard runs. Because of those factors, it may appear that Daniels is the favorite for goalline work, but I am not so sure about that.

Robinson could have conceivably scored three times in Week 1. In addition to his second-quarter touchdown, Robinson caught a 32-yard pass that saw him tackled just short of the goal line in the third quarter. The Commanders hurried to the line of scrimmage immediately afterward in an attempt to catch Tampa Bay off guard. That was the play on which Daniels scored his first NFL touchdown. On Washington's last drive, Robinson was stopped just short of the end zone again before Daniels' second score. If Robinson had indeed scored two or three times last week, his ATD line would probably be even money or worse against a New York Giants team that we exploited last week with an Aaron Jones ATD and FTD cash.

Las Vegas Raiders at Baltimore Ravens

Derrick Henry

  • Anytime TD Odds: -175 at ESPNBet
  • First TD Odds: +325 at ESPNBet

I am not opposed to getting a bit cute at times with my ATD and FTD bets, but you do not always have to swing for the fences. Sometimes you just need a base hit. Derrick Henry has scored 94 touchdowns in 120 NFL games in his illustrious career. I expect him to add to that total in Week 2. The Ravens host the Las Vegas Raiders, who have a bottom-10 run defense last season and did little to change that reputation last week. The Raiders allowed Chargers backs to amass 161 yards on 21 carries. Baltimore running backs enjoyed 1.66 yards per rush before contact last week. This is a matchup the Ravens should win in the trenches, with King Henry reaping the rewards.

New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys

Brandin Cooks

The New Orleans Saints pass defense was great last week, but it feels like we have to grade them on a curve considering they were hosting the Carolina Panthers. New Orleans is in for a much stiffer test when they travel to Dallas to take on the Cowboys. While it is hard to argue with CeeDee Lamb scoring in this game, I like the value we are getting on Brandin Cooks. He has now scored a touchdown in nine of his last 13 regular season games, including five of six at home. Saints top cornerback Marshon Lattimore has not practiced all week due to a hamstring injury. If he is out, Cooks would run most of his routes against second-round rookie cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry. That is a matchup I expect the veteran to take advantage of by scoring a touchdown in this game.

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals

Cooper Kupp

Matthew Stafford targeted Cooper Kupp 21 times in Week 1. No other player in the NFL was targeted more than 12 times. Even if Kupp's target share drops a little as expected, he will still be the focal point of the Rams' passing game after the team placed Puka Nakua on Injured Reserve. Arizona played a solid defensive game in Buffalo last week. However, both passing touchdowns they allowed were to a slot receiver. In each case, the receiver was lined up in the slot to the left. Per Pro Football Focus, Kupp lined up on the left side of the offensive formation 22 percent of the time, while manning the slot on 71 percent of offensive snaps. Kupp is as savvy a route runner as there is in the red zone, and should get the best of his matchup with Cardinals slot corner Garrett Williams.

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs

Chase Brown

I noticed something interesting when digging into the recent meetings between the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs. For those unaware, this will be the sixth meeting between the teams in the past 33 months, including playoffs. In the first of those six meetings, Ja'Marr Chase had 266 receiving yards and three touchdowns. In the four games since, he has totaled 267 receiving yards and one score. As a byproduct of the Chiefs focusing on Chase, Cincinnati's running backs have been productive as receivers out of the backfield, especially in the red zone.

In the AFC Championship Game in January 2022, Joe Mixon and Semaje Perine combined for 70 receiving yards and a touchdown. The next year, Perine and Chris Evans combined for 57 receiving yards and a game-winning touchdown in their regular season meeting. In that season's AFC Championship, Perine scored again, this time on the ground. He and Mixon also combined for six catches in that game. Then last year in Week 17, Mixon caught a touchdown, as he and Chase Brown combined for 45 receiving yards.

This could all be happenstance, but it certainly feels like Cincinnati makes a point to target running backs against the Chiefs, especially near the goal line. Zack Moss is the preferred option for early-down work, but Brown is an underrated pass catcher and could be a weapon for Cincinnati in the red zone. Mixon's receiving touchdown last season was one of four receiving touchdowns allowed to opposing running backs by Kansas City last year. Meanwhile, they only gave up six rushing touchdowns. Based on all of this, I think we are getting a bargain on Brown's ATD pricing in Week 2.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos

Najee Harris

Last week, I picked Seattle Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III to score a touchdown against the Denver Broncos, and score he did. So did backup running back Zach Charbonnet. Quarterback Geno Smith also ran in a score for good measure. Denver's run defense will be better this year than they were last season, but they are still very much a work in progress, which makes this a good spot for Najee Harris as the Steelers lead-back. Harris had 20 carries to just two for Jaylen Warren last week. Five of those carries were in the red zone. Harris also had the team's lone carry inside the five-yard line. Justin Fields is probably a bigger threat to a Harris touchdown than Warren is. I took a flier on Fields last week, so I do not mind going that route. However, I prefer Harris for my ATD/FTD bets in this game.

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