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NFL Week 2 Betting Primer: Picks & Player Prop Bets (2024)

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Introducing the Week 2 edition of the NFL Betting primer, proudly brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m thrilled to be your guide as we delve into each game on the NFL slate. Here, you’ll find expert insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and enticing player props that could pave the way for impressive single-game parlays.

We’re off to a HOT start after cashing big on Thursday night with that oh so sweet James Cook 1st TD (one of three) to go along with correct calls on the side and total.

Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 1 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for all remaining Week 2 games on Sunday.

NFL Week 2 Betting Primer

Top Favorites:

  • DAL -6
  • IND -2.5
  • JAC -3
  • ARI -1
  • PIT -2.5

Top Underdogs:

  • NYG +1.5
  • CIN +6

Top Totals:

  • LV/BAL under 41.5
  • DET/TB over 51.5
  • CHI/HOU under 45.5
  • LAC/CAR under 39.5
  • IND/GB under 40.5
  • IND/GB first half under 20.5
  • TEN/NYJ under 41
  • KC/CIN under 48.5
  • ARI/LAR under 48
  • NE/SEA under 38.5

Baltimore Ravens vs. Las Vegas Raiders (+8.5)

Sides:

  • The Raiders are 8-2-1 ATS over their last 11 games.
  • The Raiders have covered the spread in four of their last five games.
  • Baltimore is 11-4 on the money line as home favorites. But just 6-10 ATS as home favorites.
  • Lamar Jackson is 48.4% ATS as a favorite per BetMGM.
  • Gardner Minshew is 36% ATS as an underdog.
  • The Raiders have lost seven of their last eight road games.

Totals:

  • Seven of the Raiders’ last 11 games have gone UNDER the total points line, 12-6 toward the under (67%).
  • Four of the Raiders’ last five road games have gone UNDER the total points line per DraftKings Sportbook.
  • The majority of the 2023 Ravens games that went OVER came at home (five of their last seven). But they tended to be against better offenses.
  • The Ravens have gone OVER in four of the last six games (five of the previous nine).

Overall:

There’s no doubt that the Ravens left Thursday’s night game against the Chiefs with a bitter taste in their mouth, falling a toe short of a road victory (and cover). Lucky for them, I can’t think of a better bounce-back spot for them to let out their frustration than against a lowly Raiders team fresh from a divisional loss to the Chargers.

But that’s where the potential issue comes into play with the Ravens covering this massive spread. Baltimore time and time again, plays down to their competition at times. Against good/winning teams, they bring out their best. Against teams like the Raiders, I could very much see them taking their foot off the gas. Either way, this is a spot where Derrick Henry could feast, but it might not be till the second half that we see the Ravens pull away. It might make sense to take Baltimore ATS LIVE if the number drops in the first half.

The strength of the Raiders is still their defense, and Baltimore’s dropback passing game is still a work in progress. Despite the big plays they allowed against the run, LV only allowed 11 first downs against the Chargers.

It’s exactly why you should fade Jackson’s passing attempts prop (30.5) given they can feed Henry in the second half playing at home. Lamar went over 30 pass attempts thrice at home last season. One was in last year’s AFC Championship game, and the other two games went into overtime. He’s not throwing 30-plus times versus Las Vegas.

The point total is too large for my liking, with a backdoor cover by the Raiders my biggest fear. Recall that Gardner Minshew was the starter for the Colts in an OT victory last season in Baltimore. He completed 27 passes on 44 attempts.

I’ll take the game total under and look at some player props that the Raiders should hit while playing catchup in the second half.

Props:

  • The Ravens ranked second in the NFL in targets to WRs per game in 2023. 10 of the last 13 WRs have gone over their receptions prop versus Baltimore.
  • The Ravens’ first-team defense allowed 240-plus yards to 5 of the last 7 QBs they have faced.
  • The Ravens run defense since Week 6 of the 2023 season. 7 of the last ten RBs they have faced have rushed for 55-plus yards.
  • Rashod Bateman went UNDER his projected receiving yards total in 12 out of 19 games since the start of last season. He’s gone over 40 yards twice over that span.
  • Justice Hill has gone OVER his receiving yards prop in seven of his last 10 games played.
  • Gardner Minshew completed 25 passes for 257 yards in Week 1. His BP projection has him slated for 21.4 completions well ahead of his 19.5 completions line. The Raiders are littered with playmakers and OC Luke Getsy is designing this offense for Minshew to deal/distribute. Minshew posted the league’s lowest aDOT (4.7) in Week 1 to go with a 76% completion rate. The Raiders also posted the fifth-highest PROE in Week 1.
  • Jakobi Meyers was efficient in Week 1, catching all three of his targets for 61 yards (9% target share), including 21 yards after the catch (YAC). He ran a ton of routes (88%) but was not heavily targeted on a per-route basis. However, he did see the first target in the game (catch for 9 yards) before picking up his next two receptions in the fourth quarter. Meyers is just too involved in this offense to not go over the lowly 2.5 receptions line in a game where the Raiders will likely be throwing in the second half. Baltimore allowed an average of 23 completions per game at home in 2023.

My Picks:

Dallas Cowboys vs. New Orleans Saints (+6)

Sides:

  • The favorites have won 14 of the Cowboys’ last 16 games.
  • Dallas won last week as an underdog.
  • The overall favorites have covered the spread in 15 of the Cowboys’ last 20 games.
  • The Saints have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven games in September.
  • The Saints have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 14 games against NFC opponents.
  • The Saints have covered the spread in five of their last six games.
  • Dallas went 8-1 at home last season.
  • The Cowboys have won 16 of their last 17 home games.
  • Last 15 games as a home favorite? Dallas is 10-5 ATS.

Totals:

  • Ten of the Cowboys’ last 15 games have gone OVER the projected total, with their offense firing on all cylinders the last nine of 13 games through the air.
  • In 2023, Dallas was 6-3 toward the over at home, averaging 53.3 points per game
  • In 2023, Dallas finished with 12 straight games with 300-plus yards on offense and scored 20-plus points in all games except for their back-to-back road losses (both unders).
  • They scored 26 points offensively versus Cleveland on the road.
  • Seven of the Saints’ last eight games as road underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line per DraftKings Sportsbook.

Overall:

This matchup features two teams that I didn’t benefit from financially in Week 1. Although I was very much in Dallas early as an underdog to the Browns, I got cold feet. “The Browns are favored for a reason.” Woof. I should have stuck with my initial take. The value was there for the taking and I overthought it. Bookmakers were giving Deshaun Watson too much credit.

But it wasn’t nearly as egregious as my Panthers/Saints take.

“The lock of the week is Panthers +4. But if you are feeling frisky (just like the cardiac cats), I recommend sprinkling on some Panthers ML action at +170 (ESPN Bet).”

MEGA WOOF.

So, what did I learn from last week? For starters, don’t underestimate the Cowboys. With them back home in Jerry World, I am not going to overthink it. Big D dominates in front of their home crowd, and I expect nothing less with their quarterback signed to a new extension.

Rightfully so, the market isn’t giving too much credence toward Derek Carr and company after they dismantled the Panthers at home in Week 1. Remember Carr tossed for 300 yards in Week 1 of the 2023 season…

As I will mention later in the Panthers matchup, they bombed in Week 1 last year. Then they played the Saints in Week 2 and lost by only 3 points.

Do not be swayed by the Saints’ success versus the Panthers. Back Big D at home.

Although Dak Prescott has never played the Saints with Dennis Allen as the HC, he has faced this defense three times in his career. Each game went under the projected total with the Cowboys going 2-1 straight up and ATS. So, although the trends point toward the under, the Saints’ offense might be improved enough under new OC Klint Kubiak to drive this number past the 45.5-point total. We know Dallas can score.

Props:

  • Rico Dowdle was out-targeted by Ezekiel Elliot 2-1 in Week 1. The duo split routes run nearly 50/50. However, according to FantasyPoints data, Dowdle ran more routes on 3rd down (four vs. two), while they split routes on long down and distance. Given the injury to Jake Ferguson (although the team is optimistic he might play), the Cowboys might elect for the RBs more in the passing game as underneath options. Note that when Dowdle ran at least 10 routes last season, he averaged 2.5 targets per game.
  • When it comes to Rashid Shaheed and his boom games, the process is simple. Versus man coverage teams, you fade him. Versus zone coverage teams (like Carolina last week), you take the over on him. The Dallas Cowboys played the fourth-most zone coverage among defenses in Week 1 per FantasyPoints data (84%).

My Picks:

Carolina Panthers vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-5)

Sides:

  • The Chargers have lost eight of their last ten games.
  • The Chargers have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last nine games.
  • LAC is 5-5 as a favorite since the start of 2023.
  • The Panthers have lost 10 of their last 11 games.
  • The Panthers have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five home openers, per DraftKings Sportsbook.
  • Bryce Young owns the worst record ATS among non-rookie QBs (30%, 5-12-1).

Totals:

  • Each of the Chargers’ last eight games as favorites has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Thirteen of the Chargers’ last 16 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Panthers’ last 12 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Panthers have scored more than 23 points twice with Bryce Young at QB.

Overall:

Talk about déjà vu. The Panthers got blown out on the road by the Saints in Week 1 by a score of 47-10. Flashback to 2023 Week 1, when it was a similarly disheartening loss to the Falcons by a score of 24-10. Bryce Young’s horrible performance last week was eerily similar to his NFL debut. It’s not a great start for the Year 2 quarterback. The market punished them greatly by making them 3-point home underdogs the following week last season. Same story here, except it’s by an even greater margin (+6.5).

If this were the old Chargers, it would be an easy bet on the Panthers. It’s a classic case of a West Coast team flying east for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff, but the coaching advantage showed up last week between the Chargers and Raiders. Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce punted on fourth-and-one in Chargers’ territory when his team was trailing.

Jim Harbaugh’s impact matters. Dave Canales could barely match up against lame-duck head coach Dennis Allen. Then, considering the Chargers’ strengths as a running team, Carolina might be in really big trouble. They just placed their star DT, Derrick Brown, on IR. Jadeveon Clowney is also hurt. And to make matters worse, both starting guards, Damien Lewis and Robert Hunt, are also dealing with injuries.

Take the Bolts -4.5 and slam the under again (like last week).

However, I would be doing an injustice if I didn’t highlight my co-worker, Terrell Furman, and his take on the game. He calls it the “Close Your Eyes Special.”

“Over the last three seasons, teams that underperformed the spread by 21 or more points and are an underdog the following week are 61% against the spread. The handicap is that the team had a really horrible game and the books and betting public overreacts. I think the look ahead line was -3.5 before the 1pm slate last week and was up to 6.5 before the day was over.”

If you can still get Panthers +6.5, that’s the move to make. But with a new number at Chargers -4.5 that I am seeing as I write this I would take the side with the best number.

Props:

  •  If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. LA running back J.K. Dobbins has exceeded his rushing prop in his last six full games.

My Picks:

Detroit Lions vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7.5)

Sides:

  • The Lions have won nine of their last 10 home games.
  • The Lions have covered the spread as favorites in seven of their last eight games.
  • The Detroit Lions are 10-5 ATS over their last 15 games.
  • The Lions are the No. 1-ranked team ATS since Dan Campbell was hired as the head coach (73%)—the most profitable teams against the spread to bet on since the halfway point of the 2021 season.
  • The Lions have been 70% ATS favorites since the start of 2023.
  • The 2023 Buccaneers (Canales was the OC) were 8-2 ATS on the road (80%).
  • The Underdogs have won five of the last eight Buccaneers’ games.
  • The Buccaneers have won four of their last five games as underdogs.

Totals:

  • The average total in the Lions’ last 20 home games has been 54.5 points; 75 percent (15 of 20) of the games have scored at least 51 points.
  • Five of the Lions’ last seven home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Lions’ last 13 games have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

Every game played at Ford Field has the chance to completely shoot out. However, a rematch of last year’s divisional round between the Bucs and Lions stands out, in particular, based on all the injuries that Tampa Bay is dealing with in their secondary. Outside Jamel Dean, Tampa is down several starting defensive backs. CB Bryce Hall is on IR. Antoine Winfield Jr is in a walking boot. Safety Josh Hayes suffered an ankle injury last week. CB Zyon McCollum suffered a concussion. This might force two rookie CBs to start in Week 2 for the Bucs. Yikes.

As I said, we saw these two teams face off in the divisional round of the NFC playoffs last season. The Lions emerged victorious 31-23 while covering the 6-point spread. It was tied 17-17 heading into the fourth quarter.

Similar to last week, my lean is simple in a matchup between two of the NFC’s top teams… Give me the Lions as favorites at home. But given how great Baker Mayfield has looked recently with the Buccaneers (he might have his swagger back) and how he’s performed ATS as a road underdog, I wouldn’t say I like picking sides. If anything, I see so much value in TB+7.5. Betting against Dan Campbell isn’t usually profitable, but a touchdown with the hook in a game that could be so back-and-forth? It might be too good to pass on.

Still, give me the total. This one is easy. Over.

Here is one of my favorite stats about Ford Field from last season. It’s the Coors Field of the NFL. Overs, overs, and more overs. In 2023, Lions games were 7-3 toward the over, with games averaging nearly 52 total points. The fact that this game stayed under the total last week makes me even more bullish that we get a long-awaited shootout.

Props:

  • In Week 1, rookie RB Bucky Irving led the rushing attack with 62 yards on nine carries, including a 31-yard burst, averaging 6.9 yards per carry. Rachaad White struggled to find running lanes, managing just 31 yards on 15 carries (long of 15 yards). White averaged -2.1 rushing yards over expectation per attempt – the second-worst mark in Week 1.
  • The Buccaneers starter still played 70% of the snaps to Irving’s 31%. The White/Irving split is somewhat concerning. White saw a 70% snap share or less once last season, and it was in a game where he struggled immensely as a rusher, averaging fewer than 2 yards per carry. Irving steps in immediately as a rookie and excels at rushing in the new scheme orchestrated by new OC Liam Coen. Coen handpicked Irving during the NFL Draft as a plan to lessen White’s workload. And rookie RBs (especially Day 3 picks) don’t usually play this much from the get-go.
  • White’s pass-catching is still top-notch, but his continued struggles as a rusher are hard to ignore. Don’t think White goes to zero due to the receiving, but the carries could shift dramatically if Irving is just more efficient in this rushing scheme.
  • The Lions held Kyren Williams in a check to under 3.0 yards per carry after they were one of the best run defenses in the league in 2023, allowing the fewest rushing yards per game to opposing RBs.
  • The Lions’ pass funnel defense allowed 14 targets to the slot in Week 1. Chris Godwin is going to see ample opportunities for receptions. In Week 1, Godwin led all Bucs receivers with eight catches on eight targets for 83 yards and a touchdown, accounting for a 27-percent target share and 30-percent target rate.
  • Baker Mayfield has passed for over 261.5 passing yards in six of his last eight games played.

My Picks:

Green Bay Packers vs. Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)

Sides:

  • The favorites have won each of the Colts’ last 13 games.
  • The Colts were 6-0 as favorites in 2023.
  • The Packers have won each of their last 11 home openers.
  • The Packers have covered the spread in four of their last five games.
  • The Packers are 11-7 ATS as underdogs in their last 18 games played.
  • The 2023 Packers were 8-2 when they allowed fewer than 23 points on defense, 7-3 ATS.
  • Green Bay was 4-6 ATS when they allowed more than 23 points. The Colts have a 22-point implied team total.

Totals:

  • Each of the Colts’ last four games as favorites has gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Packers are 12-8 toward the over since the start of 2023.
  • From Week 10 of the 2023 season, the Packers’ first half-point totals: 10, 23, 14, 10, 10, 23, 23, 7, 27, 10, and 19.
  • Eight of the Packers’ last 10 games have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

What was expected to be an exciting matchup between Anthony Richardson and Jordan Love has taken a disappointing turn for NFL fans and bettors. With the Packers’ star QB sidelined due to injury, Malik Willis is now likely to step in as the starter for Green Bay, altering the anticipated showdown.

If there was a way to bet on the UNDER of total completions combined between the two QBs (maybe there is) that would be the bet to make.

Willis is not a polished passer, and I expect him to struggle against the Colts’ heavy Cover 3 scheme. Willis joined the Packers on August 26th in a trade for a 7th-round pick.

The Colts defense is going to force Willis to find the open man and that’s not a recipe for success. The heavy zone scheme might also limit Willis’ ability to scramble. But the biggest issue for Willis might be his propensity to hold onto the ball and take sacks. Sacks are drive killers. We saw it in the final two plays of last week’s game. Willis didn’t even get off a final throw because he took a sack. In 2023, in limited action, he led the NFL in pressure-to-sack rate. In six games in 2022, Willis completed 51% of his passes (dead last) while ranking bottom-10 in pressure-to-sack rate (26%).

As much as I’d like to believe Matt LaFleur can “coach” up Willis, I am skeptical it will happen this quickly. In Weeks 1-9 last year, the Packers had the worst first-half offense in the NFL. LaFleur is a great NFL head coach, not a miracle worker.

Take the Colts as favorites (like we always do) and their ground game that should run wild versus the Packers defense, which allowed over 100 rushing yards last week to the Eagles. Note that Indianapolis ranked -11.1% in pass rate over expectation in Week 1 (third).

For the total, this is an UNDER play. The Colts were an over machine at home last season (and the game total over his last week at home), but it was a different story on the road. This game will fly under if Anthony Richardson doesn’t connect on two or three big explosive plays. Not to mention, GB will likely deploy a run-heavy game plan with Josh Jacobs against the Colts’ defense that allowed Joe Mixon to run wild in Week 1. Two run-heavy teams with inaccurate QBs? Bet the full game under and the first half under. Only once has a Richardson-led offense scored more than 10 points in the first half (five starts) with seven or fewer points in three of those contests.

I usually don’t recommend specific same-game parlays, but the Colts ML, first half under, and total game under has me salivating.

Props:

  • The quarterback play in Green Bay will be a struggle. Take the under on these Packers WRs, specifically with Romeo Doubs. His 2.5 receptions prop is at plus money.
  • Jordan Love threw for 182 yards or fewer in three of his first six starts last season. Expect Malik Willis to underwhelm as a passer with virtually no time to learn the offense or build chemistry with his receivers.

My Picks:

Minnesota Vikings vs. San Francisco 49ers (-4.5)

Sides:

  • The Vikings have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven games.
  • All but four of the Vikings’ 16 games played in 2023 were decided by eight points or less.
  • Minnesota won against the Giants as low road favorites 28-6.
  • The 49ers have won eight of their last nine games against NFC opponents.
  • The Vikings have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games as underdogs.
  • The 49ers are 8-7 ATS as road favorites.
  • The road team has covered the spread in 12 of the 49ers’ last 13 games.
  • SF is 11-4 ATS when they score 23-plus points since the start of 2023.

Totals:

  • Four of the Vikings’ last five games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Teams averaged 42.5 points in Minnesota in 2023, 2-5-1 toward the over this season.

Overall:

This is one of the most interesting matchups on the Week 2 slate. Sam Darnold will make his first home start for the Vikings against the team that he played for all last season. He got it done versus the Giants on the road, but he will face a much tougher test against the 49ers defense.

I faded the 49ers at home last week, under the idea that they were overrated historically in that spot. But the Jets were not the opponent to chase that bet. Even without Christian McCaffery, Gang Green was overwhelmed. Don’t think that spells the end of their season, but Week 1 was not the spot for fading the 49ers.

So is a road matchup versus Kevin O’Connell and Brain Flores’ defense the spot to fade SF? It could be. Last year when these teams faced off in the same matchup, Minnesota won outright 22-17. SF was favored by 7 points, coming off a road loss. And the Vikings didn’t have Justin Jefferson in that contest. Brock Purdy threw two interceptions. However, the 49ers were without Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams, and despite being undermanned, SF still averaged 9.1 yards per attempt. The three turnovers are what killed them. They also struggled to run the football even with Christian McCaffrey (45 rushing yards).

Minnesota’s defense is coached extremely well under Flores, and his defenses have traditionally had success versus Kyle Shanahan. Last year’s matchup went under the projected total. Flores’s Dolphins beat the 49ers in a massive upset as 8.5-road underdogs (although SF had a QB injury). Either way, I expect Minnesota to do a better job on defense than the Jets did on Monday night.

But I hardly feel confident backing Sam Darnold as an underdog even in a great situation, given Shanahan probably knows his weaknesses. Conversely, he can provide insight on the 49ers offense to his defensive coaches.

All in all, this game’s lines coincide with my projections, so it’s likely a shy away from me. Based on Flores’ defense slowing down SF at home, I would opt for the under at 45.5 points.

Props:

  • Jordan Addison is out in Week 2, putting Jalen Nailor into a larger role. Keep an eye on his player props.
  • Brock Purdy might need to use his legs more in this matchup against the blitz-heavy Vikings. Purdy tends to run more on the road (60% hit rate last season on his attempts) and he hit 19 rushing yards the last time he played Minnesota
  • Ty Chandler made his mark in the passing game in Week 1 with 25 yards on three catches, including 31 YAC on three targets. He ran almost an identical number of routes to Aaron Jones, with a superior target rate at 38%.
  • Chandler has gone for at least 11 receiving yards in three straight games. Breece Hall had 39 receiving yards last week versus the 49ers, going over his 29.5 receiving yards line.

My Picks:

Tennessee Titans vs. New York Jets (-3.5)

Sides:

  • The Jets have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 12 games.
  • The Jets are 6-11-1 ATS since the start of 2023.
  • The favorites have won the first half in 16 of the Jets’ last 18 games.
  • The Titans have lost four of their last five games.
  • The Titans have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five home openers.
  • The Titans finished 5-4 at home in 2023
  • The Titans have covered the spread in six of their last eight games at Nissan Stadium.

Totals:

  • Ten of the Jets’ last 12 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Each of the Jets’ last six games as road favorites has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Titans were 4-4 toward the O/U at home in 2023 averaging 42.5 points per game.
  • The Titans are 12-6 toward the under in their last 18 games (Jets 10-8).

Overall:

The Jets were unable to pull off the Monday Night Football upset against the 49ers, but the performance was not all bad. Aaron Rodgers finished the week as PFF’s fourth-highest-graded passer (84.4). He didn’t look like his former MVP self, but he looked way better than any Jets QB did in 2023. It was the defense that was more of the issue, as they were unable to stop 49ers running back Jordan Mason.

Meanwhile, the Tennessee Titans HAD the Bears for an easy upset victory. They out-gained the Bears by nearly 100 yards on offense. They were up 17-3 midway through the third quarter. But then the Bears blocked a punt for a TD. Chicago’s offense moved enough to convert some field goals, and then a Will Levis pick-six sealed the Titans’ fate of defeat.

The Titans’ defense allowed zero TDs on the road, and they still lost. Still, it was an impressive debut for the new Titans DC, Dennard Wilson. All the splashy moves the Titans made to improve their defense made a difference in Week 1.

I expect that performance to carry over into Week 2, as the Jets figure out their identity on offense.

The game total is an easy under for me at 41.5. Keep in mind that last week with two non-offensive TDs (very random), the Titans-Bears still went under the projected total. The Jets (and Aaron Rodgers) know they don’t need to push the envelope to beat Levis and the Titans on the road.

And from a matchup perspective, the Titans have the bodies on defense to slow down New York. They have a solid run defense that allowed just 44 rushing yards to RBs last week. L’Jarius Sneed is a CB who can match up with Garrett Wilson.

All in all, I do think the Titans come up short of the home cover based on the QB disparity, but the under is the best play for me.

Props:

  • Tony Pollard led the rushing attack on the ground with 82 yards on 16 carries, including a 26-yard run on a 61 percent snap share. Pollard also found the end zone, scoring the Titans’ only rushing touchdown. Pollard was the Titans’ featured RB, and it was less than a 50/50 split, as the coaches suggested, leading up to the season. Pollard has rushed for over 50 yards in eight of his last 10 games played.
  • The Jets defense allowed Jordan Mason to rush for 147 yards in Week 1.

My Picks:

New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks (-3)

Sides:

  • The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in six of their last eight games in September.
  • The Patriots have lost seven of their last eight games at Gillette Stadium.
  • In each of the Seahawks’ last seven games, their opponents have scored first.
  • Seattle is 8-2 as a favorite last ten games.
  • The favorites have won 14 of the Seahawks’ last 16 games.
  • Seattle is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games played (3-6 over the last nine games).
  • The Seahawks have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games as favorites.
  • The Seahawks have lost five of their last seven road games.
  • Geno Smith is 39% ATS as a favorite.
  • Jacoby Brissett is 56% ATS as an underdog.
  • The Seahawks have covered the spread in five of their last six road openers.

Totals:

  • Four of the last six Patriots’ games have gone over the projected game total.
  • The Patriots were 3-5 toward the under at home in 2023—an average of under 37 points per game.
  • Four of the last five Patriots’ games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Patriots defense has allowed 300-plus yards once since Week 9 of last season.
  • Four of the Seahawks’ last six games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Seahawks’ last eight road games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

It’s very clear how both teams want to operate on offense. Run the football. In Week 1, the Patriots finished 22nd in pass rate over expectation (-6.7%), while Seattle ranked 21st in that category (-5.6%).

In terms of general run rate, New England finished Week 1 third (52%) while Seattle (50%) finished sixth.

I don’t think we need to overthink this matchup from a total perspective. It’s a matchup between two brand-new defensive-minded head coaches. They each won their first NFL game by feeding their starting RBs 20-plus carries.

Run the ball. Play defense. Smells like an under to me.

Don’t love either side, especially if the number is 3.5 as opposed to three (this number is dropping to three closer to kickoff). Likely a live bet opportunity to go back to Seattle if they start slow like they did last week versus the Broncos. How they failed to cover in that game against the Broncos is beyond me. Bo Nix was atrocious and still got the backdoor cover.

Also, a note on the Patriots defense: Last week’s performance was a little overrated. They pressured Joe Burrow on only six of his 35 dropbacks (17%). Their pressure rate ranked 31st in Week 1. It will be a much tougher day for the Patriots’ defense if they allow Geno Smith to get into a groove. Considering Seattle’s biggest issue in pass protection across the OL, New England might not be able to take advantage. Seattle lost OT George Fant in Week 1.

New England’s run defense also wasn’t great, finishing Week 1 at 25th in expected points added on defense.

The Bengals defense also wasn’t able to expose the Patriots’ pass protection issues. Brissett was pressured on 45% of his dropbacks (13 of 29)—the most of any QB in Week 1. Second-most pressured QB? Bo Nix, fresh off his game versus the Seahawks’ defense. Patriots fans might be in for a rude awakening in Week 2.

Props:

  • Noah Fant only had two catches last week on four targets, but he was involved very early on in the game. Three of his four targets came on Geno Smith’s first five passes. Clearly, there’s an intention to get him the ball, so I like the over on his 2.5 receptions prop after he ran a route on 71% of the dropbacks.

My Picks:

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cleveland Browns (+3)

Sides:

  • The Jaguars have covered the spread in ten of their last 13 road games.
  • But the Jaguars have failed to cover the spread in five of their last seven games.
  • The 2023 Jacksonville Jaguars were 7-4 overall as a favorite while just 2-5 as an underdog since the start of last season.
  • The Browns are 5-7-1 ATS in their last 13 road appearances (42%).

Totals:

  • Four of the Jags’ last five games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Jaguars have scored 24-plus points in five of their last nine games.
  • Eight of the Browns’ last nine games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Browns have lost 15 of their last 18 road openers.
  • The Jaguars have covered the spread in four of their last five games against the Browns.
  • Browns are 12-6-1 toward the over in their last 19 games.

Overall:

In Week 1 of the 2023 season, Jacksonville showed they were more than happy to run the football when the matchups call for it, indicated by the 11th-highest neutral rushing rate. Fast forward to Week 1 of this season, and we saw the Jaguars deploy another run-heavy approach, 25th in pass rate over expectation (-8%) with a true 50% run rate. Everything was clicking for the Jaguars offensively. Then things unraveled.

The Jaguars were on their way to going up 24-7 at the end of the third quarter. But Travis Etienne fumbled into the end zone. Tyreek Hill scored a long TD on the very next play for Miami’s offense. A 14-point swing in two plays.

Regardless, I’d expect a bounce-back effort for Jacksonville at home. Despite the loss last week, they still covered the 3.5-point spread (should have won outright). Can’t help but think the line would be larger had they emerged victorious.

And it’s the reeling Browns led by Deshaun Watson who are coming to town.

Watson completed 24 of 45 passes for just 169 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions, finishing with a passer rating of 51.1. His inability to consistently connect with his receivers and turnovers hindered the Browns’ offensive production. He was constantly under pressure (45%) which led to six sacks. They had one first down in the first half. WOOF.

Given the Browns’ offensive struggles with Watson (and the horrific home/road splits with the Browns’ defense, I love backing DUVAL county by a field goal at home.

As for the total, it’s low enough at 41.5 for me to swing for the over. I fully expect the Browns to pass given their positive pass rate over expectation in Week 1. The Jaguars also showed last week that they will not be pushed around against the run limiting Miami’s explosive run game to just 3.2 yards per carry.

Cleveland should also hold up better in pass protection, given tackle Jack Conklin is expected to make his return. Meanwhile, Myles Garrett is questionable after missing Thursday’s practice.

And although the Jaguars opened with a run-heavy approach in Week 1, they have done this before. Last year they opened run heavy, just to open up the passing game in Week 2 with a +13% pass rate over expectation.

The Jaguars’ Week 1 offense was clicking when rookie WR Brian Thomas Jr. was the focal point, with four catches for 47 yards and one TD in the first half alone. Trevor Lawrence attempted seven passes in the second half.

Don’t expect that two weeks in a row. Take the Jags and bet the over. Note that this game is expected to have rain. Weather adds more variance to NFL games (for better or for worse) so consider that before you place your wagers.

Props:

  • The Jaguars allowed the most catches to RBs in 2023. That trend continued in Week 1, with De’Von Achane catching seven balls.
  • Jerome Ford was effective in the passing game versus Dallas, catching six of seven targets for 25 yards (23% target rate). But he only rushed for 44 yards. In the first half alone, he had four carries for 11 yards. Jacksonville locked down the Dolphins’ ground game in Week 1. Expect more of the same in Week 2.
  • Amari Cooper had a quiet Week 1, catching only two of his nine targets for 16 yards (20% target share, 95% route participation). Watson missed him deep for a walk-in touchdown. He was targeted twice in the red zone. Over 100 air yards. You know what to do. Cooper’s boom-or-bust mantra remains undefeated. Buy. Low. The Jaguars just placed starting CB Tyson Campbell on IR. Safety Darnell Savage is also banged up.
  • In 2023, Cooper posted six games with 34 or fewer receiving yards. In the other nine games he went over 77 receiving yards. When you bet Cooper props, you bet the alternative number. Especially with David Njoku out for Week 2.

My Picks:

Washington Commanders vs. New York Giants (+1.5)

Sides:

  • Washington has covered as an underdog in fewer than 50% of their games since the start of 2023.
  • The Commanders have lost each of their last eight games.
  • The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven games.
  • The Giants are 6-3 ATS over their last nine games.
  • The Giants have covered the spread in each of their last six road games against the Commanders.

Totals:

  • Seven of the Commanders’ last nine games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • When Washington didn’t allow 20 points on defense since the start of last season, they were a perfect 4-0 toward the under; when they allowed at least 20 points on defense, they were 11-3 toward the OVER.
  • The team is 5-4 toward the over in the Giants’ last nine games. Point totals of 51, 66, 46, 50, and 58 when the games have gone over.
  • Each of the Commanders’ last four games against NFC East opponents has gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

The Giants are bad. This we know. But this Washington Commanders’ defense is almost just as bad if not worse. I do expect Dan Quinn to eventually get his unit to improve as the season progresses, but they just don’t have the personnel in pass rush or coverage to stop opposing passing games like he was able to do in Dallas.

I’m also not sure anybody needs this game more than Giants quarterback Daniel Jones. If anybody is up to the task of taking on the nation’s capital football team, it’s Jones. In his NFL career, he has lost to the Commanders franchise only once, with five wins and one tie.

If there’s any chance of positivity for the Giants in 2024, it should come this week against the egregious Washington defense.

So, although I am squeamish about going back to the Giants after they were curb-stomped by the Vikings as small home underdogs… this Commanders team is worse than Minnesota.

We also saw the Giants do the exact same thing last year: get blown out at home and respond in Week 2 with a road victory. Head coach Brian Daboll has typically been great at responding ATS after a loss.

The No. 1 ranked betting system in the BettingPros NFL Betting Systems tool is NYG as Underdogs. 19-8-1 (70%). Trust the process.

Props:

  • As bad as Daniel Jones was last week, he still completed 22 passes on 42 attempts. The Week 2 line is set at 19.5 completions.
  • Wan’Dale Robinson has gone over 35.5 receiving yards in three straight games. He’s gone over 4.5 receptions in three straight games. His prop in Week 1 is listed at plus money. In Week 1, Robinson was heavily involved, seeing a game-high 12 targets and catching six for 44 yards, with 10 YAC, making up 29 percent of the team’s target share (35% target rate). Robinson also led the Giants with three red-zone targets. Malik Nabers also popped up on the injury report on Thursday.

My Picks:

Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Rams (+1)

Sides:

  • Arizona is 6-3 ATS in their last nine games.
  • The Rams have won six of their last eight games against NFC opponents.
  • The Rams are below 55% ATS as underdogs since the start of 2023.
  • The Rams 2023 starters are 1-8 as underdogs straight up.
  • The favorites have won 11 of the Rams’ last 12 games.

Totals:

  • Seven of the Cardinals’ last eight home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Five of the Rams’ last eight games with their starters have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Rams are 7-7 toward the O/U in their last 14 games.
  • The Rams have covered the spread in 13 of their last 15 games against the Cardinals.
  • Against offenses other than the Browns, Cardinals, Seahawks, or injury-plagued Bengals, the Rams allowed at least 20 points on defense in every game in 2023. Only four times since the start of 2023 has the defense allowed fewer than 300 yards of offense.

Overall:

As an offseason (and Week 1) backer of the Cardinals, it pleases me to see Arizona favored in their second game. They went toe-to-toe at Buffalo and probably should have won the game outright.

Still, the Cardinals are far from perfect. Their run defense isn’t great, and I’d expect Sean McVay to expose that. The Bills called rushes against Arizona on nearly half of their plays despite facing a massive early down deficit.

This spread opened Arizona +2.5 (as we discussed on the BettingPros Look Ahead Early Picks for Week 2), but the lines shifted quickly, with injuries piling up for the Rams.

Puka Nacua is on IR. Two of the Rams’ starting OL pieces were placed on IR between Joe Noteboom and Steve Avila. Rob Havenstein and Kevin Dotson are questionable.

Meanwhile, what’s being underreported is that the Cardinals placed their starting tackle, Jonah Williams, also on IR.

The injuries on both OLs concern me about this game hitting the massive total. I know that Arizona was the king of shootouts in the desert at home last season, but the massive line at 48 total points suggests two teams at full offensive strength. I don’t see it that way.

I think that McVay will want to run the ball against a suspect Cardinals run defense to protect his older QB and injured OL. It’s what he did the last time these teams faced off in Week 12 of the 2023 season.

So, I’ll take the under on the bloated total and back my Cardinals as slight home favorites. McVay has owned Arizona throughout his tenure as Rams HC, but a lot of those matchups were against Kliff Kingsbury. I like Jonathan Gannon’s odds in this spot to pull out the win.

Props:

  • The Cardinals were a top-six unit against slot WRs in 2023. In Week 1 versus Buffalo, they allowed just three catches for 29 yards to the slot. Two went for TDs, but the volume was not there.
  • Cooper Kupp had three catches for 15 yards the last time he played in Arizona. They ran the ball a ton, and Kupp was not nearly as featured. Feels terrifying to fade a player who had 21 targets last week, but I just don’t think it’s sustainable.
  • James Conner has gone over 15.5 rushing attempts in three straight games.
  • Per the CoachSpeakIndex on Rams rookie WR Jordan Whittington, “He’s a man’s man.” During the entire offseason, Whittington was talked up as the replacement for Puka Nacua. I think he has a bigger role than what we saw in Week 1, with more time as part of the team’s game plan. I’ll take the under on Tyler Johnson, who might just be a flash in the pan from last Sunday night.
  • Tight end Colby Parkinson, who played 88% of the offensive snaps, caught four of five targets for 47 yards in Week 1 for the Rams. Parkinson saw elite-level usage for a fantasy-viable tight end running a route on 82% of the team’s offensive dropbacks. Bet the over on his receiving yards. We should see plenty of two TE sets to mitigate the injuries on the Rams’ OL, putting Parkinson into a solid spot.

My Picks:

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals (+6)

Sides:

  • KC is 7-0 ATS over their last seven games.
  • The Chiefs have won each of their last seven games.
  • The underdogs have covered the spread in 10 of the Chiefs’ last 15 games.
  • KC has been above 50% ATS as a favorite since the start of 2023.
  • Joe Burrow is 14-5 against the spread following a loss. Joey Covers.
  • Burrow is 3-1 ATS and straight up versus KC. Exactly three points have settled all four matchups. They are touchdown road underdogs.
  • Burrow is 62% ATS as an underdog (13-8).
  • The Bengals have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games.

Totals:

  • Seven of the Chiefs’ last eight games as home favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Chiefs were 1-8 O/U at home in 2023. They averaged 39 points per game total. They were 2-8 toward the over at home in 2022.
  • Their 2024 Week 1 game went over the total.
  • Six of the Chiefs’ last eight games have gone UNDER the total points line (eight of the last 10).
  • Since the start of 2023, the Chiefs have not allowed a team to score 27 points against them. They are undefeated when they hold teams to 17 points or less.
  • Eight of the Bengals’ last ten games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Chiefs’ last eight games as home favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

Wrote this last season. Week 2 is overreaction season. I am not overreacting to the Bengals’ abysmal defeat versus the Patriots.

I don’t like betting against Andy Reid with extra time to prepare for the Bengals. But who is more desperate for the win? There’s no doubt it’s Cincinnati. We all know the track record of teams that open the year 0-2 and how their playoff chances absolutely tank with back-to-back losses.

Joe Burrow and Co. NEED this win to avoid a disastrous 0-2 start. They’ve gone to Arrowhead before and emerged victorious so I don’t think it crazy to think they can do it again.

It’s another full week with WR Ja’Marr Chase back at practice, with the contract negotiations subsided. The focus is on football and the Kansas City Chiefs.

I won’t go as far as banking on Bengals ML, but would anybody be surprised if a Bengals game featured a huge upset two weeks in a row? Regardless, six points is too much to lay on KC, given all four of these previous matchups have been decided by three points.

As for the total, take the under at 48.5. Arrowhead is home to the Kansas City Chiefs and games that tend to go under the projected total, which is always too high because their quarterback is Patrick Mahomes.

Props:

  • Rashee Rice has 6-plus catches in 9 of his last 12 games played, including 8-plus catches in four of his last five road games played.
  • Isiah Pacheco has scored at least one touchdown in eight of his last nine appearances and 68-plus rushing yards in four of the last six games.
  • The Chiefs faced the most rushing attempts and red-zone touches from QBs in 2023. They have also allowed four of the last six QBs they have faced to go OVER their rushing yardage props, including 25 rushing yards to five out of the six QBs.
  • KC ranked inside the top 10 in targets to TEs in 2023. In Week 1, they allowed the most fantasy points to the position (Isaiah Likely)
  • Joe Burrow averaged over 230 passing yards per game last season while playing through injuries. His Week 2 prop is comically too low against the Chiefs, even on the road. The BP projections have him for nearly 254 yards. In four career games against KC, Burrow has never thrown for 250 passing yards.

My Picks:

Denver Broncos vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)

Sides:

  • The Broncos have covered the spread in five of their last six games as home underdogs.
  • Pittsburgh is 11-8 ATS since the start of 2023.
  • The Steelers are 6-4 ATS and on the ML on the road since the start of 2023.
  • In the Steelers’ last 17 road games, they are 11-6 ATS and 10-7 on the money line.

Totals:

  • Four of the Broncos’ last five games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Steelers’ last 11 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

Last week’s game plan for the Steelers was predictable. Play conservatively on offense by running the ball no matter what and win on defense with turnovers/field position. They upset the Falcons on the road with Justin Fields at quarterback and on the leg of kicker Chris Boswell.

Against a rookie QB making his second NFL start (after a very shaky debut), I don’t think Mike Tomlin will change his approach. Although I do expect more from the Steelers offensively. They have had a full week of practice knowing that Fields will be QB1. I think we see the offense operate a bit more in sync with Fields at the helm, and I expect the run game to be more effective than last week. Denver didn’t exactly slow down the Seahawks’ run game – 146 rushing yards and two rushing TDs in Week 1, picking up where they left off in 2023 when they allowed the most rushing yards per game to RBs.

I also have little faith that rookie Bo Nix will make miraculous growth in just one week. The Steelers’ defense is no joke, and that is going to make life extremely tough for the rookie quarterback.

Even though I’d prefer Pittsburgh as a road underdog versus as a favorite, this defense against Bo Nix – regardless of field – is too good to pass up. The Broncos got by the backdoor cover by the slimmest of margins last week. They won’t get so lucky two weeks in a row.

Props:

  • Courtland Sutton finished last week with just 38 receiving yards despite 12 targets from Bo Nix. With a projected matchup versus star Steelers CB, Joey Porter Jr., I’m concerned Sutton could get completely blanked in this spot.

My Picks:

Houston Texans vs. Chicago Bears (+6.5)

Sides:

  • The Texans are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as favorites (3-7 ATS as a favorite since the start of 2023).
  • Eight of their last 10 wins have been by seven or fewer points.
  • Overall, Houston is 10-8 against the spread over its last 18 games and 8-7-1 in road games ATS.
  • The Bears are 5-3-1 ATS and 6-3 straight up in their last nine games.
  • The Bears have covered the spread in six of their last eight games.
  • Chicago is 65% ATS as a favorite since 2023.
  • Each of the Bears’ last four games as underdogs has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Bears have lost 11 of their last 13 road games.

Totals:

  • The Texans have gone under in 11 of their last 18 games, which featured them playing many offenses that are averaging fewer than 20 points per game.
  • Eight of the Bears’ last 11 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • They are 5-1-1 toward the under in their last seven games.
  • Each of the Bears’ last four games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line

Overall:

As much as this matchup is going to be highlighted as “Caleb Williams versus C.J. Stroud,” it’s more about two strong defenses going head-to-head. The Bears’ defense was the reason why Chicago won their home opener last week. Not the No. 1 overall pick.

Meanwhile, the Texans defense held up last week against the Colts. Anthony Richardson only completed nine passes. Sure, he still generated some explosive plays, but Houston allowed just 14 total first downs. They also completely neutralized Jonathan Taylor, who was limited to just 48 yards on 16 carries (one TD).

The Bears’ offense is still a work in progress (evidenced by Week 1), and I think they’ll continue to go through their fair share of struggles to start the season including in Week 2 in a road prime-time game. WRs Rome Odunze and Keenan Allen have been dealing with injuries, which could cause more issues offensively.

Williams will have his moments with some nice throws, but it won’t be enough against the Texans.

As for the total, I lean toward the under given the respect I have for both defensive units. Bears games have shied toward the under because their defense has played dating to the second half of last season.

Props:

  • Nico Collins has gone over 66.5 receiving yards in five straight games. He’s gone over 62.5 receiving yards in eight of his last 10 games. Also gone over that same number in 80% of his home games last season.
  • Stefon Diggs has gone under 56.5 receiving yards in three straight games.
  • Tank Dell failed to go over 3.5 receptions for the first time since Week 9 of last season in Week 1. However, in Week 1, Dell still saw plenty of volume with seven targets and 116 air yards. Buy low.

My Picks:

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