NFL Week 2 Line Movement Analysis & Predictions (2024)
Tracking how lines move throughout an NFL week can provide meaningful information to bettors. In general, lines become more sharp throughout the week as the sportsbook collects more information.
Each game will have its reasoning for movement (e.g., injuries, betting activity, weather, etc.) and varying degrees of impact on the line.
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NFL Week 2 Line Movement Analysis
The table below is intended to summarize the home team spread and total movement for this week’s games to help provide context for any significant movements.
| Home Spread | Total | ||||||
| Away | Home | Open | Current | Diff | Open | Current | Diff |
| LV | BAL | -7.5 | -8.5 | 1 | 44 | 41.5 | -2.5 |
| NYJ | TEN | +4 | +4 | 0 | 42 | 41 | -1 |
| LAC | CAR | +4.5 | +6 | 1.5 | 40.5 | 39 | -1.5 |
| NYG | WAS | -3 | -1.5 | -1.5 | 41.5 | 43 | 1.5 |
| SF | MIN | +5.5 | +5 | -0.5 | 45.5 | 46.5 | 1 |
| NO | DAL | -6.5 | -6 | -0.5 | 44.5 | 46.5 | 2 |
| TB | DET | -6.5 | -7.5 | 1 | 48.5 | 51.5 | 3 |
| SEA | NE | +3 | +3.5 | 0.5 | 40 | 38.5 | -1.5 |
| CLE | JAX | -3 | -3 | 0 | 43.5 | 41.5 | -2 |
| IND | GB | +2.5 | +2.5 | 0 | 43 | 41 | -2 |
| LAR | AZ | +2.5 | -1 | 3.5 | 50 | 48 | -2 |
| PIT | DEN | +3 | +2.5 | -0.5 | 37.5 | 36.5 | -1 |
| CIN | KC | -4 | -6 | 2 | 48.5 | 48 | -0.5 |
| CHI | HOU | -5 | -6.5 | 1.5 | 46.5 | 45.5 | -1 |
| ATL | PHI | -4 | -6.5 | 2.5 | 48.5 | 47 | -1.5 |
(Lines per DraftKings Sportsbook | Line movement via EV Analytics | Open odds as of Monday morning | Current odds as of Thursday evening)
NFL Week 2 Spread Movement Analysis
Indianapolis Colts at Green Bay Packers: +2.5 → +2.5Â
It seems odd to share further analysis on a line that is currently at the same number as it opened at, but this Colts-Packers line has been far from stagnant all week. The first move was from +2.5 to +3, and it did not last long at that key number, as Colts backers pushed it to +3.5 by late Monday night. Since then, the line has moved back through the key number of three, even though Malik Willis is making his Packers debut in place of the injured Jordan Love just three weeks after being traded to the team. With the amount of Packers support oddsmakers seemingly got to warrant moving the line back down a full point, it is not likely that this line gets back to +3, especially after knowing for quite some time now where the team stands with respect to its starting quarterback’s injury news.
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals: +2.5 → -1Â
This is the only line among the remaining 15 Week 2 games that has jumped the fence, as this movement was likely the most of the whole slate predicated on injury news. While L.A.’s injuries are not as high-profile like Green Bay’s is with its quarterback, the Rams do project to be without four starters on the offensive line, as well as Puka Nacua who was coming off a historic rookie season. The only reason we have not seen this line swing even more in Arizona’s favor is that the Cardinals are 1-14 SU in their last 15 games against NFC West opponents, and lost both games against the Rams last year by 17-plus points.
NFL Week 2 Total Movement Analysis
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans: 42 → 41
The Jets-Titans total opened at 42 points and dipped all the way to 40.5 briefly earlier in the week. From there, Over backers brought the line back up to 41.5, but the overarching support is still in favor of the Under, as it lowered a half-point to 41 when it got back to 41.5. Tennessee’s dominant defensive performance in holding Caleb Williams to 93 passing yards in his NFL debut, plus the fact that the Titans only allowed 10 points (the other 14 were handed to Chicago via their own offense and special teams) is likely driving the support for the Under. In addition, there are some weather concerns in Nashville for Sunday, as the latest forecasts are calling for a 61% chance of thunderstorms.Â
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions: 48.5 → 51.5 Â
This is the second-biggest line change among spreads and totals for the week, and it was expected, given that these two teams met as recently in the Divisional Round of the playoffs last year, a 31-23 Detroit win which saw each team amass at least 391 total yards.Â
Detroit’s offense the last two seasons under offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has ranked first in yards per game, third in scoring, third in yards per play, and its quarterbacks have ranked fifth in Total QBR. The Lions offense looks even scarier with Jameson Williams living up to the hype after a 121-yard receiving day in Week 1. And Baker Mayfield is coming off his fifth career game with four-plus touchdown passes, following a season where he posted career-highs in completion percentage, passing yards, and passing touchdowns. There was slight buyback on the Under when the line got as high as 52, but once the total hit 51 again, Over backers drove it up another half-point. Based on that movement, an O/U of 52 points seems like the ceiling for this matchup before kickoff.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.