NFL Week 2 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Best Futures Bets (2023)

Each week, I’ll present a few recommendations for in-season future plays based on the current market and developments around the league in previous weeks to take advantage of value before it disappears. The topics will vary from week to week, but I’ll be trying to provide a mix of shorter and longer odds to help you build a portfolio over the course of the season. This week, I’m hoping to take advantage of some overreaction to Week 1 results with a division winner and a season award, as well as a team to make the playoffs.

NFL Week 2: Best Futures Bets

Green Bay Packers to make the playoffs – Yes (-110 FanDuel)

What better way to kick off the Jordan Love era than with a 3 TD performance in an 18-point rout of the division rival Bears on the road? The Packers were able to get whatever they wanted through the air without their #1 WR active for the game, and their defense surrendered just 14 points before a meaningless TD late in the fourth quarter while adding a defensive touchdown of their own. With the Vikings one score possession luck already reverting itself this year, I think the Packers are clearly the second best team in the NFC North and should challenge Detroit for the division.

Before the season started, the Packers were rated as having the 24th-hardest schedule based on last year’s winning percentage, and they get the fortune of catching their most formidable opponents (Chiefs, Chargers) at Lambeau Field late in the season, where the elements will be unfamiliar and unkind to those teams. I was extremely encouraged by Green Bay’s opening game, and with a schedule that is littered with winnable games in the far inferior conference, I think taking the Packers at essentially even odds to make the playoffs is a great bet to make, and I expect that number to get shorter and shorter as the season progresses.

---

Buffalo Bills to win the AFC East (+145 FanDuel)

It’s only been one week, and already the Bills have been usurped by the Dolphins as the betting favorites to win the AFC East, which I find to be completely mispriced. I was not at all surprised that the Bills went into MetLife and lost to the Jets because… well they did the exact same thing last year, dropping a road contest 20-17 to the Jets in a game where Josh Allen barely eclipsed 50% on his completions and threw two interceptions – sound familiar? Meanwhile, the Dolphins put on their best rendition of the Greatest Show on Turf by blitzing the Chargers in Week 1, which sounds a lot less impressive when you consider the Chargers are coming off a season where they ranked 20th or worse in points per drive and net yards per pass attempt, while ranking dead last in rushing yards allowed per attempt. We also saw this same Dolphins team get out to a hot start last year, going 3-0 before losing three straight games and then going 8-3 before losing five straight games. The Dolphins had an outstanding Week 1, and Josh Allen and the Bills could not have looked any worse, but the Bills are still the class of this division, and those Week 1 results are giving us some value in this market.

---

T.J. Watt to win DPOY (+850 DraftKings)

This is a bet that I personally placed before Week 1, and I was stunned to see that the odds had not changed at all after Watt’s performance. Sure, the Steelers got crushed by the 49ers, but T.J. Watt did everything that he could do, recording three sacks, two forced fumbles, and a fumble recovery to go along with a defended pass. Compare that to the one sack each for Myles Garrett and Micah Parsons, and it should be easy to see my confusion. Watt’s question has always been his health, but IF (and granted, it’s a big if) he’s able to stay healthy, those numbers that he had in Week 1 are going to keep tallying up. The Steelers won’t be as bad as they looked in their opener, and I think Parsons and Garrett are both getting a little bit of love based on how their overall team defenses played, while T.J. Watt had unquestionably the more dominant day as an individual defensive player.