NFL Week 2 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sunday Night Football (2022)

For the 205th time, the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers will reunite for a rivalry renewal at Lambeau Field in primetime. The Packers have dominated this series for pretty much a decade plus. Aaron Rodgers is 23-5 straight up, and 21-7 against the spread in his career against Chicago, and Green Bay has won and covered the last six meetings.

To say this rivalry has been one-sided would be an understatement. However, Week 1’s unexpected results could suggest a change is on the horizon. The Packers clearly missed departed receiver Davante Adams in a discouraging loss to the Minnesota Vikings. While the Bears silenced the critics for at least one week by upsetting the San Francisco 49ers on a wet and sloppy day at Soldier Field.

Are the Bears better than we thought they were? Are the Packers in trouble? We’ll learn a lot about both of these squads during Sunday Night Football. Let’s break this rivalry game down.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers -10, Total 41.5

Bears benefitted from “Bear Weather” in Week 1

The Chicago Bears deserve credit. They overcame a lousy first half and some miserable conditions and took advantage of a couple of key mistakes to get a hard-earned victory over the 49ers. But a look at the box score tells a different story.

Chicago was out-gained 331-204 and benefitted from 12 penalties committed by the 49ers. One of their touchdowns came on a completely busted coverage, and another came after a nasty Trey Lance pick put the offense on the San Fran 21-yard line.

Again, the Bears deserve credit for avoiding those mistakes. But Justin Fields completed just 8-of-17 passes for 105 yards, with 51 of them coming on that busted coverage TD to Dante Pettis. Chicago averaged just 2.7 yards per rush while yielding nearly 5 yards-per-carry to the Niners.

Another point of concern is Chicago’s offensive line, which allowed two sacks and three additional QB hits on just 23 Fields dropbacks. That could spell trouble against a talented Packers front seven.

We can’t completely attribute Chicago’s win to Mother Nature. But I’m guessing the result might’ve been different had this game been played on a sunny day and on a professional playing surface. And that’s coming from someone who took Chicago +7.

Is the Packers’ offense in trouble?

We asked ourselves similar questions around this time a year ago, after Green Bay got thumped 38-3 by New Orleans. The next week, the Packers bounced back to win by 18 points at home over the Lions. But things could be different this time around.

Green Bay’s passing game struggled mightily in its first game without Davante Adams. Aaron Rodgers threw for just 195 yards on 34 attempts and failed to establish much of a connection with anyone. Running back AJ Dillon was the top receiver with five catches for 46 yards. Next was Romeo Doubs, with four grabs for 37 yards. Fellow rookie Christian Watson might be banished after this infamous drop:

Green Bay could be enduring some growing pains on that side of the ball as Rodgers tries to establish a new top weapon. Allen Lazard’s health will be important to monitor, as he’s logged limited practices this week after missing Week 1 with a hamstring injury. If Lazard goes, he might get fed as he’s one of the few receivers Rodgers trusts. And his presence could take some pressure off of the Green Bay rookies.

Green Bay also didn’t have starting offensive linemen David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins available in Week 1. But there’s more hope that both will be able to return in Week 2.

Green Bay’s defense is better than what it showed last week. The Packers were in Kirk Cousins’ face quite a bit in Week 1, registering eight hits. The problem was getting home, as Rashan Gary had the lone sack. Green Bay also probably regrets not having stud cornerback Jaire Alexander shadow stud wideout Justin Jefferson throughout the game. Jefferson went off for nine catches, 184 yards, and two scores, while no other Vikings player caught more than three balls.

Gameplanning against a Bears offense with fewer weapons should be an easier task for Packers defensive coordinator Joe Barry. I’d expect this defense to bounce back at home after a disappointing opener.

Predictions & Best Bet 

We have to take Chicago’s win over San Francisco with a grain of salt for the reasons I mentioned above. Maybe the Bears are just way better than we anticipated, but there isn’t a ton from last week’s box score to indicate that.

I expect the Packers to lean heavily on running backs Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. San Francisco running back Elijah Mitchell had six carries for 41 yards and was poised for a big day before suffering a knee injury last week. Lance managed to run for 54 yards last weekend. Even Deebo Samuel put up 52 rushing yards on eight carries. The Packers should have no issues

Packers coach Matt LaFleur needs to get more creative in how he deploys these backs, and we could see Jones line up in the slot a bit more often, especially if Lazard is out or limited. And the return of Bakhtiari and Jenkins would serve as a gigantic boost.

Defensively, I’m not sure we’ll see Barry abandon his zone coverage concept to shadow Alexander on Bears’ top weapon Darnell Mooney. But Chicago’s lack of playmakers should allow Barry to be more aggressive against a Bears offensive line that could be ripe for exposure.

I expect the Packers to bounce back at home. Therefore, I’ll be looking to back Green Bay at anything below double digits. I also like a play on Chicago’s team total going under.

The picks: Packers -9.5 (-115 on DraftKings) | Chicago TT under 15.5 points (+110 on DraftKings)

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