NFL Week 2 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz’s Favorites (2023)
Whenever you peruse the weekly player props, a lot of the numbers probably seem too low. Many NFL prop bettors almost exclusively play overs because of the temptingly low over/under numbers.
A big reason those numbers seem so low is that the chances of an in-game injury are baked into the odds. In a sport as violent as football, in-game injuries are fairly common. You can milk some value by betting overs on totals that seem too low, but every so often you'll get burned when a player falls short of his number because he gets hurt.
So it was last week when I bet J.K. Dobbins to exceed 57.5 rushing yards. Early in the third quarter, Dobbins tore his Achilles. He finished with 22 rushing yards. Dobbins wasn't on pace to hit the over, but against a perennially bad Texans run defense, the over was still very much in play.
Please know that I'm not complaining about losing a small amount of money because of a player's career-threatening injury. I feel heartbroken for Dobbins. My pain is a raindrop; Dobbins' pain in an ocean.
Dobbins wasn't the only high-profile player to go down with a season-ending injury. Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles on his fourth snap as a New York Jet. Obviously, everyone who bet an over on a Rodgers passing stat was an instant loser. It's a timely reminder that an injury can instantly short-circuit an over bet.
The moral of the story: Don't bet overs on player props willy-nilly. Be judicious with overs.
Before we get to my favorite NFL player props for Week 2, a quick recap of Week 1 ...
The wins: Brock Purdy under 236.5 passing yards, D'Andre Swift under 32.5 rushing yards, Michael Thomas over 42.5 receiving yards, Gabe Davis under 45.5 receiving yards
The losses: Anthony Richardson under 195.5 passing yards, J.K. Dobbins over 57.5 rushing yards
Here are my favorite selections for Week 2 ...
Last week: 4-2
Season record: 4-2
NFL Week 1 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions
All odds are courtesy of DraftKings, as of Thursday afternoon.
Justin Herbert OVER 277.5 passing yards
Herbert travels to Nashville to face a porous Titans pass defense that allowed 274.8 passing yards a game last year and gave up 305 passing yards to Derek Carr and the Saints in Week 1. The Tennessee defense tends to be a pass funnel since the Titans are so good against the run and so bad against the pass. The Chargers ran more than they passed against the Dolphins in Week 1, but with RB Austin Ekeler questionable with an ankle injury, it seems unlikely the Chargers will be run-heavy in this one.
Anthony Richardson UNDER 197.5 passing yards
I bet the under on Richardson's passing yardage last week, too. It didn't work out, but I'm going right back to the well. Richardson threw 37 times against the Jaguars last week. The Colts aren't likely to be as pass-heavy against a Texans defense that gave up more rushing yards than any other team last season and allowed the 11th-fewest passing yards. As I noted last week, Richardson completed only 53.8% of his pass attempts last year at the University of Florida, so it seems improbable that he'll be able to light up an NFL defense through the air this early in his NFL career.
Geno Smith UNDER 247.5 passing yards
Geno has failed to clear this number in each of his last five regular-season games dating back to last December. The Seahawks are expected to be without both of their starting offensive tackles, Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas, when they visit Detroit this weekend. Good luck trying to block Lions DE Aidan Hutchinson with a backup tackle. Expect Geno to struggle this week.
Bijan Robinson OVER 53.5 rushing yards
Bijan had only 10 carries last week in his NFL debut but ran for 56 yards and looked as good as advertised. This week, the rookie from the University of Texas faces a Green Bay defense that's much better against the pass than the run. The Packers allowed the seventh-most rushing yards in 2022 and gave up 4.9 yards per carry to running backs. Not only am I betting the over on Bijan at this number, but I'm also betting on him to clear 75 rushing yards at +250 on DraftKings. The kid is special, and I want to take advantage of his comically low yardage totals before they skyrocket.
Cam Akers UNDER 32.5 rushing yards
This feels like a layup. Akers was out-snapped by RB Kyren Williams 26-4 in the first half of the Rams' Week 1 win over the Seahawks. Akers wound up with 22 carries, but only because Sean McVay let him salt away the game when the Rams were playing with a lead throughout the fourth quarter. Even with those 22 carries, Akers still only ran for 29 yards against a Seattle defense that was among the NFL's worst against the run last year. On Sunday, Akers will face a nasty San Francisco run defense that held opposing running backs to a league-low 59.6 rushing yards per game last season. Smash the under here.
Chris Godwin OVER 55.5 receiving yards
Godwin was targeted six times and had five catches for 51 yards in the Buccaneers' Week 1 win over the Vikings. I think he'll be busier this Sunday vs. the Bears. With Chicago slot corner Kyler Gordon ruled out, Godwin will spend much of the day going up against Josh Blackwell, a former undrafted free agent who's made one career start. Expect Godwin to dominate that matchup and put up strong Week 2 numbers.
James Cook OVER 12.5 receiving yards
Cook was targeted six times in the Bills' season opener against the Jets and had four catches for 17 yards. This week he'll face a Raiders defense that allowed a league-high 818 receiving yards to running backs last season. Cook should be able to clear this modest total.
Drake London UNDER 49.5 receiving yards
The Falcons' outstanding young receiver drew only one target last week and failed to record a catch. London will have better days, but I don't like his chances for a Week 2 bounceback. The Falcons can be outrageously run-heavy under head coach Arthur Smith, and I would expect Smith to favor the run against a Green Bay defense that defends the pass better than it defends the run. London is likely to get a lot of facetime with Packers CB Jaire Alexander, a terrific cover man largely responsible for holding Bears receiver D.J. Moore to a 2-25-0 stat line last week. Take the under here.
Terry McLaurin UNDER 46.5 receiving yards
Trying to play through the pain of turf toe, McLaurin has two catches for 31 yards last week vs. the Cardinals. The veteran receiver isn't fully healthy and will have a tough road matchup against the Broncos. McLaurin will run a lot of his routes into the coverage of CB Patrick Surtain Jr., a human blanket. Don't expect a big day for Scary Terry.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:
- College Football Week 3 Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
- College Football Week 3 Anytime Touchdown Scorer Odds & Picks (2023)
- NFL Betting Primer: Top Picks & Player Prop Bets for Every Game (Week 2)
- NFL Week 2 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz's Favorites (2023)
- MLB Best Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
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