Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 2 Projected Spreads, Predictions & Best Bets
My projections and best bets breakdown last week was robust. This week’s version will be much sleeker.
Because I’m lazy.
In this article each week I'll present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that - as of writing on Wednesday - I'm most likely to enter into the $1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I'll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet here as an update.
All odds are from the following sportsbooks.
Check out our BettingPros matchups page, where you can see the percentage distributions of spread, over/under and moneyline bets tracked in the BettingPros App.
Freedman's Week 1 Projections Against the Spread
Here are my personal spread projections for each Week 1 game ordered according to when each game kicks off. The consensus lines are pulled from our BettingPros odds page on Wednesday morning and are presented - along with my projected lines and edges - from the perspective of the home team.
Odds as of Wed., 3:15 pm ET.
| Home Team | Road Team | Consensus Line | Freedman Line | Projected Edge |
| KC | LAC | -4 | -6.5 | -2.5 |
| NYG | CAR | -2 | -1.75 | 0.25 |
| PIT | NE | 2 | -0.75 | -2.75 |
| NO | TB | 2.5 | 1.5 | -1 |
| CLE | NYJ | -6 | -5 | 1 |
| BAL | MIA | -3.5 | -4 | -0.5 |
| JAX | IND | 4 | 2.5 | -1.5 |
| DET | WAS | -1.5 | -1.5 | 0 |
| LAR | ATL | -10.5 | -12.25 | -1.75 |
| SF | SEA | -9.5 | -9.25 | 0.25 |
| DEN | HOU | -10 | -9.25 | 0.75 |
| LV | ARI | -5.5 | -1.5 | 4 |
| DAL | CIN | 8 | 6 | -2 |
| GB | CHI | -10 | -10.25 | -0.25 |
| BUF | TEN | -10 | -10.25 | -0.25 |
| PHI | MIN | -2.5 | -2.75 | -0.25 |
Based on my current projections, I'm willing to bet on five teams at their consensus lines right now.
- Chiefs -4 vs. Chargers
- Steelers +2 vs. Patriots
- Rams -10.5 vs. Falcons
- Cardinals +5.5 at Raiders
- Packers -10 vs. Bears
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
Check out our Chargers at Chiefs matchup page.
- Kickoff: Thursday, Sept. 15, 2022, 8:15 pm ET
- Location: Arrowhead Stadium
- TV: Prime Video
Chargers at Chiefs: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Chiefs -4
- Over/Under: 54.5
- Moneyline: Chiefs -200, Chargers +175
Chargers at Chiefs: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Sept. 14.
- Spread: Chargers - 33% bets, 40% money
- Over/Under: Under - 28% bets, 55% money
- Moneyline: Chargers - 35% bets, 44% money
Chargers at Chiefs: Key Injuries
Los Angeles Chargers Injuries
- WR Keenan Allen (hamstring): OUT
- TE Donald Parham (hamstring): OUT
- CB J.C. Jackson (ankle): Questionable
- Chargers Injury News
Kansas City Chiefs Injuries
- CB Trent McDuffie (hamstring, IR): OUT
- RT Lucas Niang (knee, PUP): OUT
- TE Blake Bell (hip, IR): OUT
- K Harrison Butker (ankle): OUT
- Chiefs Injury News
Chargers at Chiefs: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Los Angeles Chargers Trends
- Teams With Back-to-Back Divisional Games: 32-18-2 ATS (25.4% ROI) in Week 2
Kansas City Chiefs Trends
- HC Andy Reid: 33-20-1 ATS (21.8% ROI) in division (with Chiefs only)
- HC Andy Reid: 24-13 ATS (27.8% ROI) in Weeks 1-4 (with Chiefs only)
- QB Patrick Mahomes: 13-8-1 ATS (19.5%) in primetime (including postseason)
Chargers at Chiefs: Key Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don't Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Chargers Offense vs. Chiefs Defense: 2022
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.067 | 11 | 0.006 | 14 | 3 |
| Total SR | 45.3% | 14 | 40.3% | 8 | -6 |
| Total DVOA | 11.8% | 11 | 0.5% | 16 | 5 |
Chargers Offense vs. Chiefs Defense: 2021
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.088 | 5 | 0.038 | 23 | 18 |
| Total SR | 47.4% | 5 | 47.1% | 29 | 24 |
| Total DVOA | 16.0% | 4 | 4.5% | 24 | 20 |
Los Angeles Chargers Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don't Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 20 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR. 2021 data: Min. 200 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Justin Herbert
- EPA + CPOE: 0.206 (No. 5)
- AY/A: 10.0 (No. 2)
- QBR: 84.8 (No. 3)
- ATS Value vs. Average: 3.0 (No. 3)
2021: Justin Herbert
- EPA + CPOE: 0.123 (No. 9)
- AY/A: 7.6 (No. 10)
- QBR: 70.9 (No. 3)
- ATS Value vs. Average: 3.3 (No. 5)
Career: Justin Herbert
- AY/A: 7.6
- QB Elo per Game: 78.4
Chiefs Offense vs. Chargers Defense: 2022
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.435 | 1 | -0.125 | 8 | 7 |
| Total SR | 58.6% | 1 | 42.9% | 12 | 11 |
| Total DVOA | 44.5% | 1 | -33.7% | 3 | 2 |
Chiefs Offense vs. Chargers Defense: 2021
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.14 | 2 | 0.044 | 24 | 22 |
| Total SR | 51.1% | 1 | 46.8% | 27 | 26 |
| Total DVOA | 18.1% | 3 | 4.8% | 26 | 23 |
Kansas City Chiefs Quarterback Statistics
2022: Patrick Mahomes
- EPA + CPOE: 0.358 (No. 1)
- AY/A: 11.8 (No. 1)
- QBR: 94.1 (No. 1)
- ATS Value vs. Average: 5.2 (No. 1)
2021: Patrick Mahomes
- EPA + CPOE: 0.146 (No. 3)
- AY/A: 7.6 (No. 11)
- QBR: 67.7 (No. 5)
- ATS Value vs. Average: 3.9 (No. 3)
Career: Patrick Mahomes
- AY/A: 8.7
- QB Elo per Game: 120.0
Key Matchup: TE Travis Kelce vs. Chargers Pass Defense
For the first two years of his career, All-Pro S Derwin James — within DC Gus Bradley’s defense — effectively erased Kelce in their head-to-head matchups.
- 2018, Week 1: 1-6-0 receiving | six targets
- 2018, Week 15: 7-61-0 receiving | nine targets
- 2019, Week 17: 3-24-0 receiving | five targets
Enter defense-focused HC Brandon Staley with his new scheme in 2021, and all of a sudden Derwin is literally defenseless against Kelce.
- 2021,Week 3: 7-104-0 receiving | 11 targets
- 2021,Week 15: 10-191-2 receiving | 13 targets
If the Chargers can’t stop Kelce, they’re not winning this game.
Bet: Chiefs -4 (-107, PointsBet)
First Recommended: Chiefs -3 (-110)
Personal Projection: Chiefs -6.5
Limit: Chiefs -5.5
New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers
Check out our Patriots at Steelers matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Sept. 18, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: Acrisure Stadium
- TV: CBS
Patriots at Steelers: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Patriots -2
- Over/Under: 40
- Moneyline: Patriots -126, Steelers +108
Patriots at Steelers: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Sept. 14.
- Spread: Patriots - 35% bets, 60% money
- Over/Under: Under - 74% bets, 94% money
- Moneyline: Steelers - 73% bets, 81% money
Patriots at Steelers: Key Injuries
New England Patriots Injuries
- RB Ty Montgomery (ankle, IR): OUT
- WR Tyquan Thornton (shoulder, IR): OUT
- EDGE Ronnie Perkins (undisclosed, IR): OUT
- CB Joejuan Williams (shoulder, IR): OUT
- LB Ja’Whaun Bentley (toe): DNP on Wed.
- S Adrian Phillips (ribs): LP on Wed.
- LG Cole Strange (shoulder): LP on Wed.
- QB Mac Jones (back): FP on Wed.
- Patriots Injury News
Pittsburgh Steelers Injuries
- S Damontae Kazee (wrist, IR): OUT
- S Karl Joseph (undisclosed, IR): OUT
- WR Calvin Austin (foot, IR): OUT
- EDGE T.J. Watt (pectoral): DNP on Wed., projected OUT
- RB Najee Harris (foot): LP on Wed.
- CB Levi Wallace (ankle): LP on Wed.
- LB Robert Spillane (eye): LP on Wed.
- C Mason Cole (ankle): LP on Wed.
- Steelers Injury News
Patriots at Steelers: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
New England Patriots Trends
- HC Bill Belichick: 29-24 ATS (8.0% ROI) without QB Tom Brady
- HC Bill Belichick: 39-16 ATS (41.7% ROI) off a loss
- HC Bill Belichick: 9-4 ATS (40.3% ROI) without QB Tom Brady off a loss
Pittsburgh Steelers Trends
- HC Mike Tomlin: 46-23-2 ATS (29.8% ROI) as underdog
- HC Mike Tomlin: 38-33 ML (35.9% ROI) as underdog
- HC Mike Tomlin: 63-55-3 ATS (4.7% ROI) at home
- HC Mike Tomlin: 87-32-1 ML (12.4% ROI) at home
- HC Mike Tomlin: 14-3-2 ATS (54.1% ROI) as home underdog
- HC Mike Tomlin: 13-6 ML (63.1% ROI) as home underdog
Patriots at Steelers: Key Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don't Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Patriots Offense vs. Steelers Defense: 2022
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.201 | 30 | -0.174 | 6 | -24 |
| Total SR | 47.3% | 11 | 39.4% | 7 | -4 |
| Total DVOA | -10.7% | 23 | -31.9% | 4 | -19 |
Patriots Offense vs. Steelers Defense: 2021
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.07 | 10 | 0.006 | 16 | 6 |
| Total SR | 48.6% | 4 | 43.5% | 12 | 8 |
| Total DVOA | 10.5% | 9 | -0.6% | 14 | 5 |
New England Patriots Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don't Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 20 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR. 2021 data: Min. 200 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Mac Jones
- EPA + CPOE: 0.064 (No. 16)
- AY/A: 6.3 (No. 21)
- QBR: 9.7 (No. 32)
- ATS Value vs. Average: -0.3 (No. 20)
2021: Mac Jones
- EPA + CPOE: 0.114 (No. 12)
- AY/A: 7.0 (No. 16)
- QBR: 50.9 (No. 16)
- ATS Value vs. Average: -0.08 (No. 24)
Career: Mac Jones
- AY/A: 7.6
- QB Elo per Game: -16.4
Steelers Offense vs. Patriots Defense: 2022
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.117 | 24 | 0.051 | 18 | -6 |
| Total SR | 34.4% | 31 | 48.3% | 24 | -7 |
| Total DVOA | -17.0% | 26 | -2.5% | 13 | -13 |
Steelers Offense vs. Patriots Defense: 2021
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.051 | 23 | -0.063 | 4 | -19 |
| Total SR | 40.2% | 30 | 42.5% | 7 | -23 |
| Total DVOA | -11.0% | 25 | -12.8% | 4 | -21 |
Pittsburgh Steelers Quarterback Statistics
2022: Mitchell Trubisky
- EPA + CPOE: -0.013 (No. 30)
- AY/A: 5.6 (No. 24)
- QBR: 48.0 (No. 18)
- ATS Value vs. Average: 0.4 (No. 12)
2021: Mitchell Trubisky
- EPA + CPOE: N/A
- AY/A: N/A
- QBR: N/A
- ATS Value vs. Average: N/A
Career: Mitchell Trubisky
- AY/A: 7.6
- QB Elo per Game: -15.9
Key Matchup: Steelers Run Defense vs. Patriots Run Offense
Last year, the Patriots had one of the best rushing offenses in the league, and the Steelers had a mediocre-at-best run defense.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Rush EPA | -0.012 | 7 | -0.022 | 27 | 20 |
| Rush SR | 45.7% | 4 | 41.1% | 19 | 15 |
| Rush DVOA | 4.9% | 7 | -0.8% | 27 | 20 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.52 | 9 | 4.34 | 19 | 10 |
In Week 1, however, the script was flipped.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Rush EPA | -0.185 | 22 | -0.175 | 12 | -10 |
| Rush SR | 45.0% | 15 | 20.0% | 1 | -14 |
| Rush DVOA | -9.7% | 25 | -29.6% | 5 | -20 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 3.88 | 23 | 2.92 | 2 | -21 |
Against the rebuilt Bengals offensive line in Week 1, the Steelers defensive front seven strongly asserted itself, holding RB Joe Mixon to just 3.0 yards per carry on 27 attempts.
Like the Bengals, the Patriots significantly altered their offensive line this offseason. They traded RG Shaq Mason and lost LG Ted Karras in free agency. They move OT Trent Brown from the right side to the left, and they moved OT Isaiah Wynn from the left to the right. They moved OL Michael Onwenu from right tackle in 2020 and left guard/right tackle in 2021 to right guard this year. And they drafted LG Cole Strange in the first round.
On top of that, they shifted away from a gap-heavy power rushing attack and toward a Shanahan-style zone-blocking scheme this offseason, and the results were not positive in Week 1, as RBs Damien Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson and Ty Montgomery combined for just 71 yards on 19 carries.
EDGE T.J. Watt (pectoral) — the 2021 Defensive Player of the Year — is out with an injury, and his presence certainly impacts the game: He might be worth 1.5 points against the spread.
But the Patriots offense is based on the running game, and Watt’s value is primarily as a pass rusher (65 sacks in 2018-21), not as a run defender. With DTs Cameron Heyward, Larry Ogunjobi, Chris Wormley and Tyson Alualu on the interior, the Steelers still could challenge the Patriots in the trenches.
Bet: Steelers +2.5 (-107, PointsBet)
First Recommended: Steelers +1.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Steelers -0.75
Limit: Steelers +1.5
Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams
Check out our Falcons at Rams matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Sept. 18, 2022, 3:05 pm ET
- Location: SoFi Stadium
- TV: FOX
Falcons at Rams: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Rams -10.5
- Over/Under: 46.5
- Moneyline: Rams -600, Falcons +430
Falcons at Rams: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Sept. 14.
- Spread: Falcons - 60% bets, 76% money
- Over/Under: Under - 38% bets, 91% money
- Moneyline: Falcons - 7% bets, 64% money
Falcons at Rams: Key Injuries
Atlanta Falcons Injuries
- LB Deion Jones (Shoulder, IR): OUT
- LG Jalen Mayfield (Back, IR): OUT
- CB Isaiah Oliver (knee, IR): OUT
- DT Marlon Davidson (knee, IR): OUT
- RB Damien Williams (ribs): DNP on Wed.
- Falcons Injury News
Los Angeles Rams Injuries
- RB Kyren Williams (ankle, IR): OUT
- G Logan Bruss (knee, IR): OUT
- LB Travin Howard (groin, PUP): OUT
- C Brian Allen (knee): DNP on Wed.
- LT Joseph Noteboom (knee): DNP on Wed.
- LS Matthew Orzech (calf): DNP on Wed.
- WR Van Jefferson (knee): DNP on Wed.
- Rams Injury News
Falcons at Rams: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Atlanta Falcons Trends
- HC Arthur Smith: 5-3-1 ATS (15.4% ROI) on road
- East Coast Teams: 115-94-8 ATS (6.3% ROI) on West Coast for afternoon game
Los Angeles Rams Trends
- HC Sean McVay: 8-3 ATS (42.6% ROI) in Weeks 1-2
- HC Sean McVay: 28-22-1 ATS (9.3% ROI) against non-playoff teams
- HC Sean McVay: 11-6 ATS (25.8% ROI) off a loss
Falcons at Rams: Key Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don't Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Falcons Offense vs. Rams Defense: 2022
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.003 | 20 | 0.175 | 30 | 10 |
| Total SR | 51.4% | 5 | 52.6% | 30 | 25 |
| Total DVOA | 20.3% | 5 | 20.1% | 27 | 22 |
Falcons Offense vs. Rams Defense: 2021
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.076 | 27 | -0.025 | 9 | -18 |
| Total SR | 41.2% | 27 | 44.5% | 15 | -12 |
| Total DVOA | -17.1% | 28 | -8.5% | 5 | -23 |
Atlanta Falcons Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don't Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 20 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR. 2021 data: Min. 200 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Marcus Mariota
- EPA + CPOE: 0.062 (No. 17)
- AY/A: 6.5 (No. 20)
- QBR: 57.9 (No. 10)
- ATS Value vs. Average: -0.7 (No. 23)
2021: Marcus Mariota
- EPA + CPOE: N/A
- AY/A: N/A
- QBR: N/A
- ATS Value vs. Average: N/A
Career: Marcus Mariota
- AY/A: 7.2
- QB Elo per Game: -11.3
Rams Offense vs. Falcons Defense: 2022
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.251 | 31 | 0.131 | 28 | -3 |
| Total SR | 40.3% | 24 | 52.6% | 30 | 6 |
| Total DVOA | -45.5% | 31 | 15.0% | 25 | -6 |
Rams Offense vs. Falcons Defense: 2021
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.082 | 8 | 0.08 | 28 | 20 |
| Total SR | 46.6% | 9 | 48.2% | 32 | 23 |
| Total DVOA | 10.6% | 8 | 11.3% | 30 | 22 |
Los Angeles Rams Quarterback Statistics
2022: Matthew Stafford
- EPA + CPOE: 0.023 (No. 21)
- AY/A: 3.0 (No. 33)
- QBR: 23.6 (No. 28)
- ATS Value vs. Average: 0.9 (No. 8)
2021: Matthew Stafford
- EPA + CPOE: 0.129 (No. 6)
- AY/A: 8.2 (No. 5)
- QBR: 69.2 (No. 4)
- ATS Value vs. Average: 0.6 (No. 11)
Career: Matthew Stafford
- AY/A: 7.2
- QB Elo per Game: 22.2
Key Matchup: WR Cooper Kupp vs. SCBs Dee Alford & Mike Ford
You know who Kupp is.
He’s the guy who last year led the league with an obscene 191 targets and 37 red-zone targets, which he leveraged into a Triple Crown 145-1,947-16 receiving stat line (per our Advanced Wide Receiver Stats Report). In 17 games, only thrice did Kupp have fewer than 10 targets (per our Weekly Target Report). And then in Week 1 he ran a route on 100% of QB Matthew Stafford's dropbacks, played on 100% of the offensive snaps and went 13-128-1 receiving on 15 targets against a Bills defense that last year was No. 1 in pass DVOA (-23.0%).
Kupp is good.
And the Falcons defense is horrible in pass defense. Last year, it was No. 29 in pass DVOA (20.2%). Last week, it was No. 30 (5.3%).
In our internal FantasyPros unit power rankings, we see the Rams pass catchers as having a significant edge over the Falcons secondary.
| Rank | WRs & TEs | Opp Secondary | Secondary Rank | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | LAR | ATL | 17 | 12 |
The Falcons have strength on the perimeter with CBs A.J. Terrell and Casey Hayward, but Kupp lines up most in the slot, where CBs Dee Alford (undrafted rookie) and Mike Ford (journeyman, 9.9 yards per target for career) played in Week 1.
Bet: Rams -10.5 (-110, DraftKings)
First Recommended: Rams -10.5 (-106)
Personal Projection: Rams -12.25
Limit: Rams -11
Arizona Cardinals at Las Vegas Raiders
Check out our Cardinals at Raiders matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Sept. 18, 2022, 3:25 pm ET
- Location: Allegiant Stadium
- TV: CBS
Cardinals at Raiders: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Raiders -5.5
- Over/Under: 51.5
- Moneyline: Raiders -225, Cardinals +195
Cardinals at Raiders: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Sept. 14.
- Spread: Raiders - 52% bets, 59% money
- Over/Under: Over - 77% bets, 92% money
- Moneyline: Cardinals - 39% bets, 96% money
Cardinals at Raiders: Key Injuries
Arizona Cardinals Injuries
- WR DeAndre Hopkins (suspension): OUT
- WR Antoine Wesley (groin, IR): OUT
- G/T Cody Ford (ankle, IR): OUT
- CB Antonio Hamilton (foot, PUP): OUT
- S Charles Washington (chest, IR): OUT
- QB Colt McCoy (calf, IR): OUT
- TE Zach Ertz (calf): DNP on Wed.
- WR Andy Isabella (back): DNP on Wed.
- WR Rondale Moore (hamstring): DNP on Wed.
- EDGE J.J. Watt (calf): DNP on Wed.
- S Jalen Thompson (toe): DNP on Wed.
- CB Trayvon Mullen (toe): LP on Wed.
- LG Justin Pugh (neck): LP on Wed.
- Cardinals Injury News
Las Vegas Raiders Injuries
- CB Anthony Averett (thumb, IR): OUT
- RT Brandon Parker (triceps, IR): OUT
- EDGE Jordan Jenkins (knee, IR): OUT
- LB Micah Kiser (leg, IR): OUT
- C Andre James (concussion): DNP on Wed.
- LB Denzel Perryman (ankle): DNP on Wed.
- S Tre’von Moehrig (hip): DNP on Wed.
- RB Brandon Bolden (hamstring): DNP on Wed.
- Raiders Injury News
Cardinals at Raiders: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Arizona Cardinals Trends
- HC Kliff Kingsbury: 17-6-2 ATS (40.5% ROI) on road
- HC Kliff Kingsbury: 18-8-2 ATS (32.5% ROI) as underdog
- HC Kliff Kingsbury: 13-3-2 ATS (53.1% ROI) as road underdog
Las Vegas Raiders Trends
- QB Derek Carr: 13-23-1 ATS (23.4% ROI for faders) as favorite
- QB Derek Carr: 1-6-1 ATS (57.1% ROI for faders) as favorite vs. playoff team
- Home Favorites: 342-404-25 (5.4% ROI for faders) off a loss
Cardinals at Raiders: Key Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don't Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Cardinals Offense vs. Raiders Defense: 2022
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.006 | 19 | 0.067 | 22 | 3 |
| Total SR | 40.3% | 24 | 45.3% | 18 | -6 |
| Total DVOA | -14.4% | 24 | 9.6% | 20 | -4 |
Cardinals Offense vs. Raiders Defense: 2021
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.079 | 9 | 0.061 | 25 | 16 |
| Total SR | 46.8% | 7 | 44.5% | 15 | 8 |
| Total DVOA | 3.2% | 15 | 0.6% | 17 | 2 |
Arizona Cardinals Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don't Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 20 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR. 2021 data: Min. 200 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Kyler Murray
- EPA + CPOE: 0.058 (No. 17)
- AY/A: 6.9 (No. 17)
- QBR: 52.9 (No. 13)
- ATS Value vs. Average: 1.4 (No. 7)
2021: Kyler Murray
- EPA + CPOE: 0.123 (No. 8)
- AY/A: 7.9 (No. 8)
- QBR: 63.2 (No. 7)
- ATS Value vs. Average: 2.8 (No. 7)
Career: Kyler Murray
- AY/A: 7.2
- QB Elo per Game: 64.7
Raiders Offense vs. Cardinals Defense: 2022
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.125 | 25 | 0.435 | 32 | 7 |
| Total SR | 42.9% | 21 | 58.6% | 32 | 11 |
| Total DVOA | -30.5% | 29 | 47.0% | 32 | 3 |
Raiders Offense vs. Cardinals Defense: 2021
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.001 | 20 | -0.062 | 6 | -14 |
| Total SR | 45.2% | 13 | 43.9% | 14 | 1 |
| Total DVOA | -3.4% | 19 | -8.2% | 6 | -13 |
Las Vegas Raiders Quarterback Statistics
2022: Derek Carr
- EPA + CPOE: 0.014 (No. 23)
- AY/A: 5.4 (No. 25)
- QBR: 26.9 (No. 26)
- ATS Value vs. Average: -0.8 (No. 24)
2021: Derek Carr
- EPA + CPOE: 0.105 (No. 16)
- AY/A: 7.4 (No. 12)
- QBR: 58.4 (No. 14)
- ATS Value vs. Average: 0.0 (No. 16)
Career: Derek Carr
- AY/A: 7.1
- QB Elo per Game: 13.5
Key Matchup: QB Kyler Murray vs. Raiders Coverage Unit
Say what you want about his perennial second-half falloff: Murray is a top-10 quarterback — especially early in the year, before he has accumulated all the hits that come with the NFL season.
Yes, he’s without perimeter WRs DeAndre Hopkins (suspension) and Antoine Wesley (groin, IR). He might also be without slot WR Rondale Moore (hamstring).
But the Raiders also have issues. In Week 1, they allowed Chargers QB Justin Herbert to go off with 279-3-0 passing on a 76.5% completion rate and 10.0 AY/A. They were No. 30 in dropback EPA per play (0.483). And it’s not as if they were great last year in pass defense, rankings No. 26 in dropback EPA per play (0.167).
Part of the challenge for the Raiders is that they’ve experienced heavy turnover this offseason at cornerback, and so their back-end unit has little cohesion.
Last year, the Raiders top perimeter corners were Casey Hayward, Trayvon Mullen, Brandon Facyson and Desmond Trufant.
They’re all gone.
Replacing them are CBs Rock-Ya Sin and Anthony Averett (thumb, IR), the second of whom is already out with an injury, which means that last year’s No. 5 perimeter corner, Amik Robertson, is now starting. Yikes.
Returning from last year is slot CB Nate Hobbs, a 2021 fifth-rounder who has allowed an 81.4% completion rate for his career.
At safety the Raiders have the mediocre duo of Johnathan Abram and Tre’von Moehrig (hip), who didn’t practice on Wednesday. And LB Denzel Perryman (ankle), the team’s main off-ball coverage backer, also missed practice on Wednesday due to injury.
And the players are adjusting to a new scheme under DC Patrick Graham.
Within our FantasyPros unit power rankings, we see Murray as having a significant edge against the Raiders defense in general and the secondary in particular.
| Rank | Quarterback | Offense | Opp Defense | Defense Rank | Secondary Rank | QB-Def Edge | QB-Sec Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Kyler Murray | ARI | LV | 23 | 26 | 14 | 17 |
In the offseason market, this line was Raiders -2.5. In the Thursday lookahead market last week, this number was still -2.5. The market reopened at -3 on Sunday night, the line quickly moved to -3.5 and within 24 hours it was at -5.5 and even -6, where it met resistance and was bet back down to -5.5.
This line is an overreaction to how badly the Cardinals looked against the Chiefs in Week 1. If Murray can be his usual self against a subpar Raiders secondary, the Cardinals will have a good chance to cover.
Bet: Cardinals +5.5 (-107, PointsBet)
First Recommended: Cardinals +5.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Cardinals +1.5
Limit: Cardinals +3.5
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
Check out our Bears at Packers matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Sept. 18, 2022, 8:20 pm ET
- Location: Lambeau Field
- TV: NBC
Bears at Packers: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Packers -10
- Over/Under: 42.5
- Moneyline: Packers -475, Bears +360
Bears at Packers: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Sept. 14.
- Spread: Packers - 37% bets, 74% money
- Over/Under: Under - 50% bets, 91% money
- Moneyline: Bears - 61% bets, 68% money
Bears at Packers: Key Injuries
Chicago Bears Injuries
- CB Tavon Young (leg, IR): OUT
- G Dakota Dozier (knee, IR): OUT
- OT Alex Leatherwood (illness, PUP): OUT
- WR N’Keal Harry (ankle, IR): OUT
- WR Velus Jones (hamstring): LP on Wed.
- OT Riley Reiff (shoulder): LP on Wed.
- Falcons Injury News
Green Bay Packers Injuries
- LB Krys Barnes (ankle, IR): OUT
- LG Jon Ruynan (concussion): DNP on Wed.
- LT David Bakhtiari (knee): LP on Wed.
- RT Elgton Jenkins (knee): LP on Wed.
- WR Allen Lazard (ankle): LP on Wed.
- Packers Injury News
Bears at Packers: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Chicago Bears Trends
- QB Justin Fields: 4-7 ATS (23.1% ROI for faders) overall
- QB Justin Fields: 3-7 ATS (35.4% ROI for faders) as underdog
- QB Justin Fields: 0-2 ATS (92.2% ROI for faders) vs. Packers
Green Bay Packers Trends
- QB Aaron Rodgers: 65-34-4 ATS (27.1% ROI) at home
- QB Aaron Rodgers: 48-30 ATS (20.4% ROI) in division
- QB Aaron Rodgers: 26-12 ATS (33.6% ROI) at home in division
- QB Aaron Rodgers: 20-7 ATS (44.8% ROI) vs. Bears
- QB Aaron Rodgers: 38-27-2 ATS (13.2% ROI) in primetime
- Teams With Back-to-Back Divisional Games: 32-18-2 ATS (25.4% ROI) in Week 2
- Teams With Back-to-Back Divisional Games: 17-4-1 ATS (58.9% ROI) in Week 2 off a loss
Bears at Packers: Key Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don't Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Bears Offense vs. Packers Defense: 2022
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.004 | 22 | 0.096 | 26 | 4 |
| Total SR | 32.7% | 32 | 41.9% | 11 | -21 |
| Total DVOA | -14.8% | 25 | 25.3% | 31 | 6 |
Bears Offense vs. Packers Defense: 2021
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.087 | 29 | 0.02 | 19 | -10 |
| Total SR | 41.4% | 26 | 46.6% | 26 | 0 |
| Total DVOA | -13.6% | 26 | 3.6% | 22 | -4 |
Chicago Bears Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don't Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 20 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR. 2021 data: Min. 200 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Justin Fields
- EPA + CPOE: 0.011 (No. 28)
- AY/A: 6.8 (No. 18)
- QBR: 42.1 (No. 22)
- ATS Value vs. Average: -1.8 (No. 31)
2021: Justin Fields
- EPA + CPOE: 0.014 (No. 34)
- AY/A: 5.8 (No. 28)
- QBR: 31.4 (No. 31)
- ATS Value vs. Average: -2.3 (No. 41)
Career: Justin Fields
- AY/A: 5.8
- QB Elo per Game: -100.5
Packers Offense vs. Bears Defense: 2022
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.192 | 29 | -0.19 | 5 | -24 |
| Total SR | 45.8% | 13 | 40.6% | 10 | -3 |
| Total DVOA | 9.7% | 14 | -17.0% | 7 | -7 |
Packers Offense vs. Bears Defense: 2021
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.136 | 3 | 0.032 | 22 | 19 |
| Total SR | 48.9% | 3 | 44.5% | 15 | 12 |
| Total DVOA | 20.2% | 2 | -0.9% | 13 | 11 |
Green Bay Packers Quarterback Statistics
2022: Aaron Rodgers
- EPA + CPOE: 0.013 (No. 27)
- AY/A: 4.4 (No. 29)
- QBR: 16.1 (No. 29)
- ATS Value vs. Average: 2.8 (No. 5)
2021: Aaron Rodgers
- EPA + CPOE: 0.176 (No. 1)
- AY/A: 8.8 (No. 2)
- QBR: 74.1 (No. 1)
- ATS Value vs. Average: 4.1 (No. 2)
Career: Aaron Rodgers
- AY/A: 8.4
- QB Elo per Game: 82.0
Key Matchup: QB Aaron Rodgers vs. Bears Secondary
The Packers scored only seven points in Week 1, and Rodgers looked horrible with 22-of-34 for 195-0-1 passing, but the Packers were without LT David Bakhtiari (knee), RT Elgton Jenkins (knee) and No. 1 WR Allen Lazard (ankle), all of whom practiced on Wednesday and have a chance to return in Week 2.
The Packers suffered an embarrassing 38-3 road loss to the Saints in Week 1 last year — and then they went 13-3 the rest of the way and captured the No. 1 seed as Rodgers won his second straight MVP. The Packers are at Lambeau Field, plus ...
... they’re facing the Bears.
I don’t think there’s a question as to whether Rodgers will bounce back in this game. The question is how big the bounceback will be.
The Bears enjoyed a great, weather-aided 19-10 victory as home underdogs to the 49ers last week, holding QB Trey Lance to 13-of-28 for 164-0-1 passing.
But that’s Lance — not Rodgers — and that happened in the pouring rain.
In our FantasyPros power rankings, Rodgers has a clear edge over the Bears defense in general and secondary in particular, both of which are bottom-four units.
| Rank | Quarterback | Offense | Opp Defense | Defense Rank | Secondary Rank | QB-Def Edge | QB-Sec Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Aaron Rodgers | GB | CHI | 30 | 29 | 23 | 22 |
The Bears specifically have two rookies starting in their secondary: SCB Kyler Gordon and SS Jaquan Brisker.
I expect to see Rodgers attack them heavily with Lazard and TE Robert Tonyan — perhaps his two most-trusted pass catchers.
Bet: Packers -10 (-105, DraftKings)
First Recommended: Packers -9.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Packers -10.25
Limit: Packers -10
Freedman's 5 ATS Picks for Season-Long Contests
The five spreads I’ve highlighted above are the ones that right (right now) I’m leaning toward in the DraftKings picks contest.
Note: The lines for this contest can vary from those highlighted above.
- Chiefs -4.5 vs. Chargers
- Steelers +1.5 vs. Patriots
- Rams -10.5 vs. Falcons
- Cardinals +5.5 at Raiders
- Packers -9.5 vs. Bears
Also in consideration are:
- Panthers +2.5 at Giants
- Saints +2.5 vs. Buccaneers
- Jaguars +4.5 vs. Colts
- Cowboys +7.5 vs. Bengals
- Bills -9.5 vs. Titans
In this expanded list, the Jaguars, Saints, and Panthers most catch my eye.
My personal projection shows some value on the Cowboys — especially through the key number of +7 — but I’m highly skeptical of backup QB Cooper Rush and the injured offensive lines.
Look for my tweet update on Sunday before kickoff.
UPDATE (9/18): Here's the tweet.
Week 1 Record
- Picks in articles and tracker: 5-3 (+1.75)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 3-2
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