NFL Week 3 Anytime Touchdown Scorer Picks & Predictions (2024)

by Mick Ciallela |
Sep 21, 2024

Last week started so well. My first pick of the week, Chris Godwin, hit his Anytime Touchdown (ATD) as well as his First Touchdown (FTD) for a cool +250/+1700 payout. After that, however, there was not much for me to crow about. I did hit a few other ATDs, but they were few and far between. Such is the nature of the ATD and FTD beast. I am back at it again this week to hopefully have better results.

As I have mentioned previously and will continue to emphasize, I am tracking these using bet sizes of 0.4 units on ATD and 0.1 units on FTD. Use your discretion and adjust as you see fit. We compare anytime touchdown stats to prop bet odds and projections to help identify this week's best bets.

Best NFL Week 3 Anytime TD Scorer Prop Bets

(All wagers are 0.5 units)

Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Mike Evans

Anytime TD Odds: +105 at ESPNBet
First TD Odds: +600 at FanDuel Sportsbook

I am now 2-0 on both ATD and FTD bets on Tampa Bay Buccaneers games. Let's keep it going as we go back to our Week 1 play, Mike Evans.

Evans may draw the Patrick Surtain matchup, but Surtain has struggled to start the year. Pro Football Focus has graded 147 cornerbacks who have played at least 20 percent of coverage snaps. Surtain has the fifth-lowest coverage grade among that group. Evans also has three inches and 30 pounds on Surtain, so he can win 50/50 balls on the outside. If Surtain does not travel with Evans, then the veteran wideout should be able to take advantage of left cornerback Riley Moss. Moss's 48.1 coverage grade is 127th among those 147 corners. Moss has allowed 1.53 yards per route run thus far this year. That puts him in the 19th percentile among cornerbacks. The Broncos have not allowed a wide receiver to score against them yet. But I think that changes in Week 3, and I think Mike Evans is the man to do it.

Houston Texans at Minnesota Vikings

Justin Jefferson

Anytime TD Odds: +130 at FanDuel Sportsbook
First TD Odds: +950 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Justin Jefferson caught touchdowns in each of Minnesota's first two games this season. Jefferson looks to build on his hot start when the Vikings host the Houston Texans. Minnesota removed Jefferson from the Week 3 injury report, so he should be a full go by Sunday. Meanwhile, fellow wide receiver Jordan Addison is out with an ankle injury. Jefferson figures to be involved early and often.

Houston has stymied opposing running backs through two weeks, holding them to just 75 yards on 33 carries and 28 receiving yards on six receptions. This should cause Minnesota to attack Houston via the air. The Texans held Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears receivers in check last week, but their leaky secondary served up two deep touchdown passes in Week 1 to the Indianapolis Colts. I like Jefferson to keep his scoring streak intact in this matchup. I also love the FTD odds we get with Jefferson. This +950 price is a bigger payout than usually accompanies a +130 ATD bet.

Los Angeles Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers

Ladd McConkey

Anytime TD Odds: +400 at DraftKings Sportsbook
First TD Odds: +1500 at FanDuel Sportsbook

There are not a whole lot of touchdown trends to glean from the first two games played by these teams. Pittsburgh has scored one total touchdown and allowed one total touchdown through two weeks. Los Angeles also allowed just one touchdown, though they scored five on offense. JK Dobbins and Quentin Johnston each found the end zone twice for the Chargers, while rookie wideout Ladd McConkey has also scored. McConkey is the player that interests me here. Part of it admittedly has to do with the longer odds. But I also like his matchup in the slot versus the Steelers secondary.

The Steelers have been using their rookie, Beanie Bishop, as their primary slot cornerback. Bishop has lined up in the slot on 90 percent of defensive snaps. And the results have not been pretty. Opposing receivers have caught seven of eight targets against Bishop, including the lone touchdown that Pittsburgh has given up through two games. I think McConkey can get open for a score here.

If Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert cannot play due to his ankle injury, my preferred pivot would be Steelers quarterback Justin Fields. He is at +230 for ATD at DraftKings and +900 for FTD at Bet365.

Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints

Chris Olave

Anytime TD Odds: +160 at Bet365 Sportsbook
First TD Odds: +1000 at Bet365 Sportsbook

It feels like the books are retroactively pricing Alvin Kamara after his four-touchdown blowup game last week in Dallas. The same can be said to a lesser degree for Rashid Shaheed. That creates some opportunities for other players on the Saints' side. My favorite ATD player in this game is wide receiver Chris Olave. Olave is not among the six Saints who have scored touchdowns yet. However, he is still arguably their most skilled player and gets an outstanding Week 3 matchup versus the Philadelphia Eagles.

The Eagles have allowed five touchdowns so far this season. All five have been to opposing wide receivers. They have given up the third-most scrimmage yards to wideouts. Olave runs 82 percent of his routes on the outside of the offensive formation. He should face off against a combination of Darius Slay and Quinyon Mitchell. That duo has allowed 175 receiving yards and a touchdown on 18 total targets. Seven of Olave's nine career touchdown catches have come at home, and I think he has an excellent opportunity to bump that number up on Sunday.

Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans

Tony Pollard

Anytime TD Odds: +110 at DraftKings Sportsbook
First TD Odds: +500 at DraftKings Sportsbook

The Green Bay Packers and Tennessee Titans are two of six teams to allow at least one rushing touchdown and at least one receiving touchdown to opposing running backs so far this year. I am not opposed to a Josh Jacobs ATD/FTD bet, but I prefer Tony Pollard in this matchup.

There was preseason talk of a 50-50 split between Pollard and Tyjae Spears. But Pollard's usage has been way more secure through two weeks. Pollard has 43 opportunities (carries plus targets) compared to just 16 for Spears. The Packers served up Saquon Barkley's three-touchdown performance in Week 1. Last week, they were able to keep Colts back Jonathan Taylor out of the end zone. But he still amassed 135 yards from scrimmage on just 14 touches. Pollard has six red zone opportunities through two games, so he is a solid bet to score on Sunday.

New York Giants at Cleveland Browns

Jerome Ford

Anytime TD Odds: +145 at ESPNBet
First TD Odds: +600 at ESPNBet

Cleveland gave D'Onta Foreman the start over Jerome Ford last week. If that happens again in this game, then perhaps a Foreman FTD bet (+700 at BetRivers) is worth a look. But I still believe Ford is the better Browns back, and the more likely of the two to score on Sunday against the New York Giants.

Ford is averaging 5.7 yards per carry and has secured seven of nine targets in the passing game. Foreman is averaging three yards per rush and fumbled the ball near the goal line last week. New York has allowed opposing running backs to rush for 5.81 yards per carry and catch 11 of 13 targets out of the backfield through two weeks. As long as Ford gets a decent amount of reps on Sunday, he has a great chance to score a touchdown.

Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts

Jonathan Taylor

Anytime TD Odds: -120 at Fanatics Sportsbook
First TD Odds: +450 at Fanatics Sportsbook

I am picking Jonathan Taylor for my ATD and FTD bets in this game mostly because I do not trust Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson to get it done in the air. The Chicago Bears have one of the best coverage units in the NFL. But they are in the middle of the pack defensively against the running game. I expect Indianapolis to lean on Taylor much more in this matchup than they did a week ago when Taylor only touched the ball 14 times. Taylor has five red zone carries through two weeks, so he is my preferred pick here.

Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Anytime TD Odds: +195 at DraftKings Sportsbook
First TD Odds: +950 at DraftKings Sportsbook

The Miami Dolphins have what many consider to be the most explosive set of skill players in the NFL. But with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa sidelined indefinitely following another concussion, I cannot trust Skylar Thompson to run this offense effectively or efficiently. Therefore, I am turning my attention to the other side of their Week 3 matchup with the Seattle Seahawks. Zach Charbonnet has scored in each game for Seattle, but he has been a very inefficient rusher. Instead, I expect the Seahawks to exploit the mismatch between slot receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Miami slot cornerback Kader Kohou.

Kohou has PFF's second-lowest grade at cornerback and has allowed the fourth-most yards per route run. Smith-Njigba caught 12 passes last week on 16 targets. That type of volume combined with an elite matchup makes for an ideal ATD/FTD play.

Carolina Panthers at Las Vegas Raiders

Zamir White

Anytime TD Odds: +105 at DraftKings Sportsbook
First TD Odds: +600 at Bet365 Sportsbook

Zamir White has gotten off to a slow start for the Las Vegas Raiders this season. White has just 84 yards on 27 touches while backup running back Alexander Mattison has scored in each of the Raiders games. The pendulum should shift back in White's direction in Week 3 when the Raiders host the Carolina Panthers. At the risk of putting too much trust in coachspeak, Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce had stated his desire to feed White 20 touches as the team's lead back. This feels like a good week to make that happen.

The Panthers have picked up where they left off last year. That is not a compliment. So far, opposing running backs have rushed for 333 yards and three scores while averaging 4.9 yards per carry against Carolina. Las Vegas is one of the biggest favorites on this week's board. There should be no shortage of opportunities to score points, especially on the ground. Zamir White should have his best game of the season in Week 3, and I expect that to include a touchdown.

Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys

Derrick Henry

Anytime TD Odds: -115 at Fanatics Sportsbook
First TD Odds: +650 at Fanatics Sportsbook

Dallas got completely steamrolled by the New Orleans Saints at home last week. Saints running back Alvin Kamara scored four times, and the Cowboys have now allowed five touchdowns to enemy backs through two games. Things do not figure to get much easier for Dallas when they host Derrick Henry and the Baltimore Ravens. Henry has scored in each of his two games as a member of the Ravens. Still, Baltimore has been criticized for going away from Henry late in each of those contests. This feels like a game where the Ravens will look to wear Dallas down with the run.

From a narrative standpoint, Henry lives in Dallas and reportedly wanted to sign with the Cowboys in the offseason. A little extra motivation never hurt, and could give King Henry an added boost on Sunday. I look forward to seeing his touchdown celebration while cashing an ATD (and hopefully a FTD) ticket.

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams

Jauan Jennings

Anytime TD Odds: +260 at DraftKings Sportsbook
First TD Odds: +1100 at FanDuel Sportsbook

The San Francisco 49ers have been without star running back Christian McCaffrey in each of their first two ballgames. Now they are expected to be missing wide receiver Deebo Samuel and tight end George Kittle when they face the Los Angeles Rams. Other players will have to step up and take on a larger role in this game. I believe Jauan Jennings will be up to the task. Jennings proved on the biggest stage that he can be trusted when called upon. The fifth-year pro caught a touchdown in last season's Super Bowl and threw for another. (We would not get credit for a thrown touchdown, for the record.)

Jennings should man the slot for San Francisco and face Quentin Lake most often in coverage. Lake has allowed 70.5 percent of passes to be completed in his coverage over his three-year career. I look for Kyle Shanahan to figure out a way to get Jennings open over the middle near the goal line to help fill the void left by Kittle's absence.

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals

Marvin Harrison Jr.

Anytime TD Odds: +140 at Caesars Sportsbook
First TD Odds: +1200 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Marvin Harrison Jr. caught two touchdowns before you could blink to help lead Arizona to a blowout win against the Rams last week. He gets an excellent chance to score again on Sunday when the Cardinals host the Detroit Lions.

This game should feature plenty of offensive fireworks. The implied total is the highest of all 16 Week 3 games, and the second highest of the 2024 season thus far. Points should come fast and furious in this game. Harrison Jr. plays on the outside on about 78 percent of offensive snaps. That means he will most likely be guarded by either fellow first-round draft pick Terrion Arnold (89 percent outside) or veteran Carlton Davis (80 percent outside). Neither cornerback has acquitted themselves well to this point in the young season. Arnold allows 1.68 yards per route run and an 85 percent catch rate, while Davis is giving up 2.22 YPRR and a 72 percent completion rate. Each has surrendered a touchdown catch so far. No matter how you slice it, this is a favorable matchup for Harrison Jr.

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