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NFL Week 3 Betting Primer: Picks & Player Prop Bets (2024)

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Introducing the Week 3 edition of the NFL Betting primer, proudly brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m thrilled to be your guide as we delve into each game on the NFL slate. Here, you’ll find expert insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and enticing player props that could pave the way for impressive single-game parlays.

Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 2 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for all remaining Week 3 games on Sunday.

NFL Week 3 Betting Primer

Top Favorites:

  • Colts – 1
  • Browns – 6.5
  • Saints -2.5
  • Buccaneers -6.5
  • Ravens – 1

Top Underdogs:

  • Packers – ML (+130)
  • Dolphins – ML (+180)

Top Totals:

  • CHI/IND – under 43.5
  • PIT/LAC – under 35
  • HOU/MIN – under 46
  • TB/DEN – under 41
  • CAR/LV – under 40
  • ARI/DET – over 51.5

Chicago Bears @ Indianapolis Colts

Sides:

  • The favorites have won 13 of the Colts’ last 14 games.
  • The Colts were 6-0 as favorites in 2023 and 0-1 as favorites this season.
  • The Bears are 6-3-1 ATS and 6-4 straight up in their last 10 games.
  • The Bears have covered the spread in seven of their last nine games.
  • The Bears have lost 12 of their last 14 road games.

Totals:

  • Four of the last five Colts’ games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Only once has a Richardson-led offense scored more than 10 points in the first half (six starts) with seven or fewer points in three of those contests.
  • Each of the Bears’ last five games as underdogs has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Bears’ last 12 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • They are 6-1-1 toward the under in their last eight games.
  • Each of the Bears’ last four road games has gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

The Colts had a rough outing in Week 2 against the Green Bay Packers. Anthony Richardson was inaccurate, and the Colts didn’t lean on the ground game enough. Meanwhile, their defense couldn’t stop the run, even though everybody knew it was coming.

It was a mismanaged offensive game plan by Colts HC Shane Steichen.

So even though the GB-IND first half under and game total under came through with flying colors in a projectable run-heavy game with two inaccurate QBs, the Colts didn’t hold up their end of the bargain as road favorites.

I don’t think that happens two weeks in a row, especially with the Colts back at home. Because as crazy as it sounds, this Bears offense in Week 3 doesn’t project so much differently than the Packers did in Week 2.

Caleb Williams has not shown the pocket polish many were expecting. He will struggle against the Colts’ heavy Cover 3 scheme.

And his propensity to take sacks – 31% pressure to sack rate, same as Bryce Young – suggests more stalled drives/3-and-outs.

Last week, GB head coach Matt LaFleur crafted a game plan around Malik Willis and the Packers’ rushing attack to beat the Colts. As much as I’d like to say Shane Waldron can do the same, the Bears don’t have the personnel or coaching to take advantage at a similar level.

If the Bears can’t run the ball on the Colts – who just placed DeForest Buckner on IR – there’s no hope for D’Andre Swift. That’s my concern from the Bears side. Even if they install a run-heavy game plan, it might be less effective, with Swift leading the charge behind a poorer offensive line.

The approach here is simple. It’s the same as last week (except the Colts cover): The first half under, the game total under, and Colts ATS.

The Bears haven’t scored more than 10 points in either first half this season. And I respect Chicago’s defense enough to slow down the Colts offense and their big plays.

Chicago is 2-0 ATS this season. But it’s by the slimmest of margins. Regression is crashing down in Week 3.

Player Props:

I said from the jump, this has to be the spot for the Bears’ run game to get going. The last two RBs they have faced have gone over 150 rushing yards. I will also say to be aggressive on the Khalil Herbert rushing props. Maybe he will get more run this week. I’d expect him to take full advantage of the plus-matchup.

My Picks:

New York Giants @ Cleveland Browns

Sides:

  • The Giants have lost eight of their last nine road games.
  • The Giants are 6-4 ATS over their last 10 games.
  • The Browns have covered the spread in six of their last seven home games.
  • The Browns have won eight of their last 10 games as favorites.
  • 8-2 on the ML at home, 9-3 as a favorite.

Totals:

  • Five of the Browns’ last six games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Browns’ last 10 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Browns are 12-7-1 toward the over in their last 20 games.

Overall:

The Browns’ OL has been a mess over the season’s first two weeks. But reinforcements should be on their way with Dawand Jones, Jedrick Wills, and Jack Conklin. This will provide a major boost for the Browns offense, which seemed to find any rhythm in Week 2 after a disastrous Week 1. Deshaun Watson was noticeably better (low bar to pass) but still far from his old self from Houston. He only took sacks but averaged just 5.5 yards per attempt.

To his credit, the Browns are the only offense to score a touchdown on 100% of its red-zone opportunities this season.

Given that the Giants’ defense couldn’t stop the Commanders’ offense anywhere but the red zone in Week 2, we will see potentially the best offensive output from the Browns in Week 3. They have the fifth-highest pass rate over expectation this season (3%). The Giants have been a bottom-5 pass defense against Sam Darnold and Jayden Daniels. They are allowing the league’s highest completion rate (80%).

Meanwhile, the Browns allow the league’s lowest completion rate (53%). Back at home, I expect their defense to make Daniel Jones’ life miserable. If Carolina shows out with Andy Dalton at QB this week, the Giants will secure their spot at No. 32 in all power rankings.

Don’t bet on the Browns in Week 3. Bet AGAINST the NFL’s worst team. The Giants offense played well last week against the NFL’s worst defense and STILL couldn’t win/cover.

Player Props:

I thought Week 2 was going to be the Amari Cooper week. Alas, it’s still too early. He had a massive drop on a deep pass that would have put him over his total.

Cooper caught three of eight targets for 11 yards in Week 2. He’s fifth in air yards (278) this season. The Browns WR has 27 receiving yards so far this season. Something has to give here.

Hence, I am going right back to Cooper’s props. Again, people, it’s feast or famine with Cooper. In 2023, Cooper posted six games with 34 or fewer receiving yards. In the other nine games, he went over 77 receiving yards. When you bet Cooper props, you bet the alternative number. The Giants allow the second-most fantasy points per dropback (per Fantasy Points data) this season.

My Picks:

Green Bay Packers @ Tennessee Titans

Sides:

  • The Titans have lost five of their last six games.
  • The Titans are 5-5 at home since the start of 2023.
  • The Titans have covered the spread in six of their last nine games at Nissan Stadium.
  • The Packers have covered the spread in five of their last six games.
  • The Packers are 12-7 ATS as underdogs in their last 19 games played.
  • Since 2023, the Packers have been 9-2 when they allowed fewer than 23 points on defense and 8-3 ATS.
  • Green Bay was 4-6 ATS when they allowed more than 23 points.
  • The Titans have a sub-20-point implied team total despite being slight home favorites.

Totals:

  • The Titans were 4-4 toward the O/U at home in 2023, averaging 42.5 points per game.
  • The Titans are 12-6-1 toward the under in their last 19 games.
  • The Packers are 13-8 toward the over since the start of 2023.
  • From Week 1-10 of the 2023 season (before Jordan Love took a major step in his progression), the Packers’ first half-point totals were 10, 23, 14, 10, 10, 23, 23, 7, 27, 10, and 19.
  • Green Bay scored 10 points in the first half of Week 2 in Willis’ first start.
  • Eight of the Packers’ last 11 games have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

NFL fans have been “treated” to the Will Levis experience for two weeks in a row. And it’s a shame because the Titans have played well overall through two games, especially on defense. Through two games, they rank first in the NFL in yards per play allowed (3.8). Alas, the Titans are 0-2 ATS and straight up. With better (more responsible QB play), they’d easily be 2-0 overall and ATS.

But Levis has been the third-most pressured quarterback through two weeks, which has contributed to his mistakes. I’m afraid his turnover-worthiness won’t be going away anytime soon.

Fun fact: In Week 1, the player with the highest turnover-worthy play rate (10%) was Jalen Hurts, who played the Packers. In Week 2, Anthony Richardson had the highest turnover-worthy play rate (13%). He played the Packers.

Sense a pattern?

Meanwhile, you’ve got the “Plucky Packers” led by Malik Willis in the revenge game of ALL revenge games. He is facing the team that drafted him and who he was a part of less than a few weeks ago – a team that gave him away for peanuts (7th-round draft pick).

I’m not here to convince you that Willis has turned the corner. He’s not going to be an NFL starting quarterback. But can he be this year’s Joshua Dobbs? Plucky backup, who covers spreads left and right? I think he can be.

Will it be pretty? Not likely. But what we saw last week from Sam Darnold against his old team…the offense prevailed. I’ll follow the trend by backing the Packers (who are great bets as underdogs anyway) on the road. Because let’s be honest. That’s the only reason they are favorites with Levis as QB1.

As for the total, this is another easy UNDER play. As noted, the Titans’ defense is great, and both quarterbacks are sack machines.

Player Props:

Will Levis has yet to surpass 200 passing yards this season. He’s gone under this number in seven of his last 10 games played.

My Picks:

Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints    

Sides:

  • The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games.
  • 1-8 ATS overall in their last nine games played.
  • At home in their last 20 games – 12-8 ATS as home favorites.
  • The Eagles have lost each of their last four road games.
  • The Eagles are 4-10-2 ATS when their defense allowed 20 or more points since the start of last season.
  • They covered just three spreads when they allowed 20 points on defense.
  • The Saints have covered the spread in six of their last seven games.

Totals:

  • Four of the Saints’ last five games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Eagles are 10-10 O/U since the start of 2023. But they are 3-8 toward the over on the road.
  • Both the Saints and Eagles boast top-5 red zone defenses through two games.

Overall:

This line opened as Eagles -3.5 before flipping to Saints -2.5 after the conclusion of Monday Night Football. This might be a slight overreaction to the Eagles’ loss – considering they were a dropped pass away from victory.

Or it’s bettors swarming toward the New Orleans Saints as the hottest team in the NFL. I’ve been burned twice by the Saints in back-to-back weeks, so I’m tentatively approaching this marquee contest.

And as it stands two weeks in, the only Saints’ game I’ve projected correctly was with the over last week.

The Saints offense is for real, with Klint Kubiak calling the shots and integrating motion and play action at an extremely high rate. Derek Carr has been flawless and has seen the third-lowest pressure rate in the NFL. When kept clean, Carr executes the offense at a high level.

As for the Eagles… They should have covered the 5.5-point spread last week. But it’s been the same old song-dance with this team since the second-half collapse during last season. Underwhelming. And so far, in 2024, we are getting more of the same. The defense still isn’t completely fixed. The pressure on the quarterback is non-existent (31st in the NFL).

And the offense is missing their best WR, A.J. Brown.

It feels weird in 2024 to view a Derek Carr-favored team against an underdog Eagles squad led by Jalen Hurts. After all, both guys usually struggle in their respective positions. Carr is 37% ATS as favorite, while Hurts is 46% ATS as an underdog (6-7). But Hurts’s record in his last eight games? 2-6. Carr? 6-2.

The trends clearly suggest that the Saints, by a field goal, is the clear play. What could go wrong?

Especially with how bad the Saints have been defending mobile QBs.

Player Props:

Considering I haven’t been profitable handicapping Saints games, I will likely allocate most of my funds toward the props—specifically, Jalen Hurts’s rushing yards. Dennis Allen’s defense has always been vulnerable against mobile QBs. In 2023, they ranked third in QB rushing yards allowed. In two of Hurts’s prior games against Allen’s Saints defenses, he’s rushed for his two HIGHEST rushing yardage totals of his NFL career (106 and 69), including 18 carries in each contest. Fresh off an 85-yard rushing performance and 13 carries, Hurts should continue terrorizing Allen’s defense with his legs.

Chris Olave had one of the highest target rates per route run during the NFL preseason. In Week 2, he had 53% percent air yards share and 38% target rate per route run.

But he’s been relatively uninvolved with his counting stats due to the Saints’ lack of total pass attempts. In a more back-and-forth contest, Olave should fly over 4.5 receptions. He had four catches on the Saints’ first drive in the second half of Week 2.

My Picks:

Los Angeles Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Sides:

  • The Steelers have won five of their last six games.
  • The Chargers are 2-0 ATS this season.
  • Pittsburgh is 12-8 ATS since the start of 2023 and is 2-0 this season in two road games.

Totals:

  • Seven of the Chargers’ last eight road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Fourteen of the Chargers’ last 17 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Chargers are 2-0 toward the under this season. As are the Steelers.

Overall:

This game could get ugly in a hurry. In the aftermath of Week 2’s win over the Panthers, Justin Herbert is dealing with an ankle injury. He’s expected to play, but these compounding lower body injuries for Herbert are concerning me, especially with them playing on the road against this fierce Steelers defensive line with T.J. Watt leading the charge (pun intended).

This is undoubtedly one of the better coaching matchups of Week 3. John Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin will play chess and battle in the trenches, combining the best of both.

Both teams want to run the football, ranking 31st and 30th, respectively, in pass rate over expectation.

Justin Fields will make his third start for the Steelers, with Russell Wilson reportedly NOT being a full participant at practice. Fields has been extremely proficient as the Steelers’ quarterback, with zero turnover-worthy plays through two games. He’s managed the game for the Steelers and has done just enough offensively to help them remain undefeated.

The tight spread indicates how closely these teams match up, and it seems unlikely either will run away in this contest with how these teams play offensively.

I jumped on the Steelers -2.5 in my early look ahead at the Week 3 NFL slate, and I see no reason to shy away from that now. Fields has continued to improve and still offers game-breaking ability with his legs to deliver if the Steelers need to.

Meanwhile, Herbert has been constantly banged up. And when you compare the two players straight up two weeks in as passers, Fields’s efficiency has been superior. He has also made more big-time throws per PFF.

Given the home-field advantage, I feel the Steelers should be given more than 1.5 points.

Player Props:

George Pickens only caught two of four targets (20% target share) for 29 yards in Week 2.

At a glance, it’s easy to write this stat line as “Pat Surtain treatment.” Not quite. Pickens had a 51-yard catch (with Surtain in coverage) wiped away due to a holding penalty away from the play.

He has another TD call nullified because of OPI on Van Jefferson. Fields also missed him deep twice.

Essentially, he had one of the best games I’ve seen from a WR that resulted in a stat line of 2 catches for 29 yards. If you go back and consider the penalties, etc., Pickens was closer to a monster game with 135 yards.

The current receiving line doesn’t accurately portray his abilities and upside weekly. He has a 26% target share this season, and the fourth-highest air yards share in the NFL (53%).

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. LA running back J.K. Dobbins has exceeded his rushing prop in his last seven full games. And he’s never backed down against the Steelers. In three career games versus the Steelers, Dobbins has rushed for 93, 113, and 120 yards.

My Picks:

Houston Texans @ Minnesota Vikings

Sides:

  • The Vikings have won each of their five previous games against the Texans.
  • The Vikings have failed to cover the spread in six of their last eight games. They are 2-0 ATS this season under Sam Darnold.
  • All but four of the Vikings’ last 17 games played have been decided by eight points or less (76%).
  • The Vikings have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games as underdogs.
  • The Texans have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games as road favorites.
  • The Texans are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games as favorites (3-8 ATS as a favorite since the start of 2023).
  • Nine of their last 11 wins have been by seven or fewer points.
  • Overall, Houston is just 10-9 against the spread over its last 19 games and 8-7-1 in road games ATS.

Totals:

  • Four of the Vikings’ last five games as underdogs have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Four of the Vikings’ last six games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Vikings are 2-0 toward the under this season.
  • Teams averaged 42 points in Minnesota, 2-6-1 toward the over since the start of the 2023 season.
  • The Texans have gone under in 12 of their last 19 games, which featured them playing many offenses that are averaging fewer than 20 points per game.

Overall:

My analysis felt justified last week backing the Texans/Bears under 45 because the defenses weren’t getting the respect that they deserved. For two straight weeks, Houston ranked fourth in fewest first downs allowed. You can’t run the football on their defense. Expect the Vikings to happily oblige by abandoning the run game with the third-highest pass rate over expectation through two games.

Sam Darnold – PFF’s third-highest-graded QB this season – will be tasked with more passing attempts than the previous two weeks.

But similar to last week, I feel the C.J. Stroud mystique with all the Texans’ weapons overshadows the two defenses in this game. The Vikings’ defense has been legitimate through two games. Beating the Giants isn’t amazing, but limiting the 49ers at home to fewer than 20 points is utterly impressive. SF was just 2 for 10 on third downs. The 49ers hadn’t scored fewer than 17 points in any game since Week 8 last season.

The Vikings have the second-highest pressure rate in the NFL (39%).

Given how well Brian Flores’ defense has played against offenses following the Kyle Shanahan scheme, I am going with the under for the second straight week in Minnesota.

If I had to bet the spread, I wouldn’t take anything less than Texans -1.5. Their propensity to not cover spreads by the slimmest margins means you need to get the best number possible.

Player Props:

Stefon Diggs had six targets (17% target share), catching four passes for 37 yards in Week 2. Diggs has gone under 49.5 receiving yards in four straight games.

Dell failed to go over 3.5 receptions for just the second time since Week 9 of last season in Week 2.

Both Diggs and Tank Dell underwhelmed versus the Bears and have posted modest target rates (bottom 50) through two games.

However, given a matchup against the blitz-heavy Vikings in Week 3, I’d expect both guys to be more involved as C.J. Stroud’s quick outlet. I project Diggs to have a busy day, given his low average depth of target. His receptions prop line is set at 4.5, with plus money toward the over.

The Houston Texans are a no-joke run defense.

Per Next Gen Stats, Houston allowed Bears running backs in Week 2 to gain more yards than expected on just one of 16 rushes (6.3%), their lowest rate of runs over expected since 2018. In 2023, the Texans allowed -270 RYOE to opposing running backs, the fewest in the NFL and the 3rd-fewest over the last six seasons.

With Aaron Jones in a committee with Ty Chandler, the under on his rushing yardage is the clear play here.

Nico Collins has gone over 66.5 receiving yards in six straight games. He’s gone over 62.5 receiving yards in nine of his last 11 games.

My Picks:

Denver Broncos @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sides:

  • The Buccaneers have won each of their last seven games against opponents on a losing streak.
  • The Buccaneers have covered the spread in four of their last five games.
  • Tampa Bay is 5-1-1 ATS as a home favorite in their seven games.
  • The Underdogs have won six of the last nine Buccaneers’ games.
  • The Broncos are 3-6 ATS on the road dating back to 2023 (1-2 ATS last 3)

Totals:

  • Six of the Broncos’ last eight games against NFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Four of the Broncos’ last six games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Ten of the Broncos’ last 14 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Tampa Bay has averaged 35 points total at home in 2023 (2-7 record toward the over).

Overall:

If the two weeks of Survivor Pools have taught me anything, it’s that you aren’t just picking one team to win. You are also picking one team you think will lose. Case in point, if you had just placed your bets against the Carolina Panthers (who figured to be the worst team entering this season), you’d be 2-0 and still vying for the top prize in Survivor. Picking against the worst team in the NFL was the best strategy for Survivor Pools. Go figure.

I see this matchup similarly. An erratic rookie quarterback making a road start against an experienced and well-schemed defense led by Todd Bowles.

Denver won’t have OT Mike McGlinchey for blocking upfront, and they might not be able to take advantage of the defensive injuries for Tampa.

The Buccaneers’ defense entered Week 2 extremely banged up, but Bowles’ scheme prevailed. They shut down the Lions in the red zone and kept the Lions’ in pass-heavy sets despite being without Calijah Kancey and Vita Vea. Vea will have a chance to play in Week 3.

But does it even matter?

Through two games, the Broncos’ run game has been non-existent. Bo Nix leads the team in rushing yards as the team ranks No. 1 in raw pass rate (perks of trailing in games).

Bo Nix posted a 47.5 passer rating with two interceptions in his first road start against a seasoned defensive-minded coach in Mike Macdonald Week 1.

Meanwhile, the Broncos haven’t been able to stop the run defense – although some of the more advanced metrics, such as expected points added, suggest they might not be as bad based on the counting stats. Either way, Tampa Bay isn’t much of a running team. Rachaad White is banged up with a groin injury.

I think we see the same script we’ve seen from the Buccaneers the last two weeks. Baker Mayfield with pass protection throws lasers at Chris Godwin while CB Patrick Surtain locks up with Mike Evans.

The Buccaneers’ top red-zone defense will suffocate any chance of the Broncos finding the end zone.

Tampa Bay opened the year as a 3.5-point home favorite against a BETTER rookie QB in Week 1. They won by 17 points. And the score was 37-14 before a garbage-time touchdown by the Commanders.

Given TB’s skill at limiting points in the red zone, I also lean toward the under at 41.

Player Props:

In Week 1, Godwin led all Bucs receivers with eight catches on eight targets for 83 yards and a touchdown, accounting for a 27-percent target share and 30-percent target rate. In Week 2, Godwin again had an outstanding day, receiving eight targets (42% target share) and seven passes for 117 yards, including a massive 64 yards after the catch. Slot Godwin won’t stop seeing targets. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

Javonte Williams has finished under 42.5 rushing yards in six straight games. He has 40 rushing yards COMBINED in the last two weeks.

My Picks:

Carolina Panthers @ Las Vegas Raiders 

Sides:

  • The Panthers have lost their last 10 road games.
  • The Panthers have lost 11 of their last 12 games.
  • Carolina didn’t cover the spread on the road once in 2023. Regression should be coming under new head coach Dave Canales.
  • The 2023 Buccaneers (Canales was the OC) were 8-2 ATS on the road.
  • The Raiders have covered the spread in five of their last six games.
  • The Raiders are 9-2-1 ATS over their last 12 games.
  • The Raiders have covered the spread in five of their last six games.

Totals:

  • Each of the Panthers’ last five games against AFC opponents has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Ten of the Panthers’ last 13 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Raiders’ last 12 games have gone UNDER the total points line, 12-7 toward the under.

Overall:

Who knew how fun this matchup could be? Andy Dalton will start for the Panthers after the organization benched Bryce Young. I am confident that this anemic offense we have seen through two games will improve in Week 3. The market agrees, and the line has moved two points from LV -7 to LV -5. The Red Rifle has arrived. And although his presence should only improve the offensive production, the defense might play better as well, knowing they don’t have to do everything to win.

That being said, the Panthers’ run defense remains a major issue. They rank 31st in rushing yards allowed per game (199.5), picking up where they left off last season.

And the Raiders… well, they have been fun through two games, at least regarding how their offense has operated with Gardner Minshew and new offensive coordinator Luke Getsy. Getsy has all but abandoned the run game, opting to move the ball through the air with short-to-intermediate throws. The Raiders rank second in pass rate over expectation this season (5.7%), trailing only the Bengals (9.4%).

Unfortunately, the good times might not keep rolling. Head coach Antonio Pierce has been disappointed by a lack of rushing and a new zone-blocking scheme. The Raiders head coach has pointed more blame on the blocking upfront, but Zamir White just looks like a poor fit in this scheme. They brought in Alexander Mattison for a reason, and he’s looked like a much better rusher.

But Pierce is doubling down on his commitment to White.

“I’m gonna keep pumping him up,” Pierce said. “Our goal is to get 20+ touches with him [White]. That was the goal this week, didn’t happen. That’s going to be the goal this week and every week while he’s the starting running back and I’m here.”

This seems like a square peg/round hole situation. The Raiders offense has been inspiring with high passing volume, but the head coach wants to go back to his run-heavy routes. Against Carolina’s atrocious run defense, it’s not a terrible strategy. But is giving White 20-plus touches at the expense of Davante Adams, Brock Bowers, etc., truly the best offensive game plan? I am not overly convinced. Seems like the Raiders are going through somewhat of an identity crisis on offense, and that concerns me and their ability to cover the spread.

I’ll take the Panthers on the road at +6 and take the game total under 40.

I truly think that Young hamstrung the entire Panthers offense and that we will finally see Canales’ vision with a competent passer under center.

That being said, functioning and thriving are drastically different things. Note that despite more optimism about the Panthers after Young’s benching, the total has moved from 43 to 40.

The Raiders’ defense is still their team’s strength, and they have shown it two weeks in, ranking tenth in first downs allowed per play.

All in all, I prefer the bet on the total than the side.

Player Props:

We know the Panthers brought in Diontae Johnson to be the No. 1 WR in this offense. But the chemistry he has with Dalton remains to be seen. Meanwhile, we’ve seen Dalton connect with Adam Thielen before. In Week 3 of the 2023 season, the duo connected on 11-of-14 passes for 145 yards and one touchdown, per Panthers.com. I’m surprised his lines (43.5) and 3.5 receptions are this high for Week 3.

We nailed the over on Gardner Minshew’s completions in Week 2, and many will point to the slightly negative game script as a result. But this offense is centered around the quick passing game. Minshew had 14 completions in the first half alone and hit the over mid-third quarter.

Even against a bad Panthers run defense, I don’t think the Raiders lose their identity completely on offense.  Minshew has 25-plus completions in two straight games. He leads the NFL in completions, completion rate with the third-lowest aDOT to boot.

Note that I wrote the above analysis BEFORE seeing the quotes from Pierce. So let’s pivot OFF the Gardner Minshew OVER 21.5 pass attempts and onto the OVER Zamir White’s 14.5 rushing attempts.  It’s Pierce’s goal (if not mission) to get him over this number. Projections agree, with White slated for 16 rushing attempts.

My Picks:

Miami Dolphins @ Seattle Seahawks

Sides:

  • In each of the Seahawks’ last eight games, their opponents have scored first.
  • Seattle is 9-2 as a favorite in the last 11 games.
  • The favorites have won 15 of the Seahawks’ last 17 games.
  • Seattle is 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games played (3-6-1 over the last ten games).
  • The Seahawks have failed to cover the spread in their last seven games as favorites.
  • The Seahawks are 3-5-1 at home as favorites ATS in their last nine games.
  • The Dolphins have lost four of their last five games.
  • Miami has failed to cover the spread in each of their last five games.
  • Miami was below 20 percent ATS as an underdog dating back to last season, 1-5 overall in 2023.
  • Miami did not win a game in 2023 after trailing at halftime. That changed for the first time in Week 1 versus the Jaguars. They reverted back to their old ways in Week’s loss versus the Buffalo Bills.
  • The Dolphins have lost each of their last eight road games against teams that held a winning record.

Totals:

  • Four of the Seahawks’ last seven games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Each of the Dolphins’ last four games has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Dolphins’ last 10 games as underdogs have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

The Seahawks are 0-1-1 ATS to start the 2024 season. They didn’t cover at home against Bo Nix and failed to cover the 3-point spread versus the Patriots in their OT road victory in Week 2. They will head back home to face the Miami Dolphins, who are coming off additional rest because they played last Thursday night.

Tua Tagovailoa’s concussion and absence is a major headline of this game, but tackle Terron Armstead’s potential absence should not be overlooked.

However, I’m firmly off Seattle has heavy home favorites, coming off an OT victory. Their track record has been so bad covering as home favorites. Geno Smith is just 40% ATS as a favorite.

So, it’s just a matter of taking the Dolphins with the points or with the straight-road upset. The line has moved heavily in Miami’s direction after it was available at one point: MIA +6.5. I’ll follow the line movement but go a step further: The Dolphins with the upset.

Again, Miami has traditionally been bad against the great teams. But are the 2024 Seahawks truly great after they went 0-2 ATS against the Broncos/Seahawks in back-to-back weeks?

I’d also like to point out that Mike McDaniel might have the major offensive edge even with Skylar Thompson at quarterback.

Thompson (a former 7th-rounder out of Kansas State) started in three games as a rookie, going 1-2 as the starter. (2-1 ATS). However, in his first start, he also got hurt, making him 2-0 ATS in his two full starts as a rookie, including one in the postseason at Buffalo when Miami was 13.5-point underdogs.

Mike Macdonald’s defense is complex and I’m not sure that either offense they have faced this season at the offensive firepower to expose it. Flashback to 2022 in Macdonald’s first season as the Ravens DC.

Week 2 against the Dolphins led by Mike McDaniel. Tua Tagovailoa threw for nearly 500 passing yards and six TDs. Waddle and Hill both went over 170 receiving yards.

Miami has the requisite firepower to potentially expose Seattle’s defense. I don’t think they have been tested yet this season.

Therefore, I think this is a sneaky spot for offensive production. There are too many talented players on both sides of the ball for us to NOT see any fireworks.

Seattle showed last week that they are more than happy to open up the passing game, generating a +12% pass rate over expectation compared to Week 1’s zero percent.

Player Props:

I fully expected the Dolphins to implement a quick passing game with Thompson at QB. Before Tagovailoa’s injury, he had the quickest time to throw in the NFL. Jaylen Waddle should remain a staple in that strategy. Since the start of 2023, Waddle has finished with under 3.5 catches in just three games. Two were against the Chiefs.

My Picks:

Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals

Sides:

  • The Lions have covered the spread in five of their last six road games.
  • The Lions have covered the spread as favorites in seven of their last nine games.
  • The Detroit Lions are 10-6 ATS over their last 16 games.
  • The Lions are the No. 1-ranked team ATS since Dan Campbell was hired as the head coach (72%)—the most profitable teams against the spread to bet on since the halfway point of the 2021 season.
  • The Lions have been just below 70% ATS favorites since the start of 2023.
  • Arizona is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games.

Totals:

  • Eight of the Cardinals’ last nine home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Lions’ last 14 games have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

The Lions offense has let us down in back-to-back weeks, coming up just short of the games’ projected totals. But if any offense will “regress to the mean” in Week 3, it’s Detroit. Keep this in mind.

Jared Goff leads the NFL in red-zone pass attempts without a red-zone TD pass (19). The points are coming.

And it will likely be here in Week 3 against the Cardinals. If Ford Field were the Coors Field of the NFL, then State Farm Stadium would be either Great American Ball Park or Yankee Stadium. Eight of the Cardinals’ last nine home games have gone OVER the total points line.

It’s the third straight week betting on the Lions’ over. What could go wrong?

As for the sides, I don’t see why Arizona isn’t in it. They’ve shown out the first two weeks and are building momentum as a threat in the NFC West. If it’s a shootout, then it’s anybody’s game.

Like last week, the underdog was the value selection against the Lions. Rinse and repeat with the Red Birds as HOME underdogs.

Ask yourself, is the better QB even favored here?

Player Props:

Slot WRs have destroyed the Lions. Cooper Kupp (14) and Chris Godwin (7) have SAILED over their reception numbers versus Detroit.

Sam LaPorta has taken a backseat in the Lions’ offense due to the emergence of Jameson Williams. He’s been under 4.5 catches in both games this season. And last year, when Williams played, he averaged 4.5 catches in just 53% of his games. Given that Arizona has allowed a combined just two catches to opposing No. 1 TEs this season, the UNDER on LaPorta is the move.

My Picks:

San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams

Sides:

  • The 49ers have won 12 of their last 13 games against NFC West opponents.
  • The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games.
  • The 49ers are 8-8 ATS as road favorites in their last 16 games.
  • The road team has covered the spread in 12 of the 49ers’ last 14 games.
  • SF is 11-4 ATS when they score 23-plus points since the start of 2023.
  • The Rams have won six of their last nine games against NFC opponents.
  • The Rams are below 54% ATS as underdogs since the start of 2023.
  • The Rams 2023 starters are 1-8 as underdogs straight up. 0-2 as underdogs this season (1-1 ATS).
  • The favorites have won 12 of the Rams’ last 13 games.

Totals:

  • Four of the 49ers’ last five games as favorites against the Rams have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Six of the Rams’ last nine games with their starters have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Rams are 8-7 toward the O/U in their last 15 games.
  • Against offenses other than the Browns, Cardinals, Seahawks, or injury-plagued Bengals, the Rams allowed at least 20 points on defense in every game in 2023. Only four times since the start of 2023 has the defense allowed fewer than 300 yards of offense.

Overall:

One of my biggest “wins” so far this season from a betting perspective has been on the Arizona Cardinals. They are 2-0 ATS so far, and they dismantled the Rams team in Week 2.

Rams starting guard Jonah Jackson is going to miss time. He will need to be replaced.

However, LA will get starting tackle Alaric Jackson back at tackle after he served a two-game suspension. This will put OT Warren McClendon on the bench after he allowed three sacks in Week 2.

So, although the Rams’ OL is far from the product it was to start the year, the tackle play should be much better in Week 3. I wouldn’t OVERLY count the Rams’ OL woes from Week 2 in this specific Week 3 matchup.

But that’s about as positive as it gets looking at the state of the Rams’ offense. The top two WRs are gone. Without protection and his top playmakers, Matthew Stafford/Sean McVay are facing a major uphill battle as they host their NFC West rivals in Week 3.

But the Rams are hardly the only team dealing with injuries. Insert the 49ers with Deebo Samuel added to their laundry list of injuries and out on Sunday. George Kittle now has a hamstring injury and will miss the game as well.

These teams know each other extremely well, and I am all too familiar with Sean McVay kicking a pointless field goal last season to prevent SF from covering the spread. The 49ers are a bad bet as a heavy road favorite.

I don’t have a lot of confidence backing this Rams’ undermanned unit. But I think this can be a gutsy effort from the Rams to keep things closer than most think. If I had to pick a side, it would be backing warrior Matthew Stafford as a +6.5-point underdog at “home.” But ultimately, the under is my strongest play.

I was able to get it early at 46.5 and the line has moved down to 43.5. Be sure to check out the early lookahead show every Monday on the BettingPros YouTube feed.

Player Props:

Given the injuries to the Rams WRs, I’d expect them to ride Kyren Williams pretty hard.

We faded Tyler Johnson last week with flying colors. I think we see more of rookie WR Jordan Whittington this week, with him projected to take on the starting slot role in the Rams offense in the absence of Cooper Kupp.

My Picks:

Baltimore Ravens @ Dallas Cowboys

Sides:

  • The favorites have won 14 of the Cowboys’ last 17 games.
  • Dallas won Week 1 as an underdog and lost Week 2 as a favorite.
  • The overall favorites have covered the spread in 15 of the Cowboys’ last 21 games.
  • Dallas went 8-1 at home last season. They have lost back-to-back home games.
  • The Cowboys have won 16 of their last 18 home games.
  • Last 16 games as a home favorite? Dallas is 10-6 ATS.
  • The Ravens have won each of their last nine games against NFC opponents.
  • The Ravens have covered the spread in eight of their last 10 games following a loss.

Totals:

  • Eleven of the Cowboys’ last 16 games have gone OVER the projected total, with their offense firing on all cylinders the last 10 of 14 games through the air.
  • Twelve of the Cowboys’ last 15 home games have gone OVER the total points line per DraftKings Sportsbook.
  • Since 2023, Dallas is 7-3 toward the over at home, averaging over 53 points per game.
  • In 2023, Dallas finished with 12 straight games with 300-plus yards on offense and scored 20-plus points in all games except for their back-to-back road losses (both unders).
  • They scored 26 offensive points against Cleveland on the road in Week 1 and 19 at home in Week 2.
  • The majority of the 2023 Ravens games that went OVER came at home (five of their last seven). But they tended to be against better offenses.
  • The game went over the projected total in Week 2 at home versus the Raiders.
  • The Ravens have gone OVER in five of the last seven games (six of the previous 10).

Overall:

We faded the Ravens in Week 2 because they consistently played “down” to their competition. But with them down to a 0-2 start, there’s no more room for error.

I fully expect them to throw their best punch at the Dallas Cowboys, who continue to be one of the biggest teases in the NFL. One week, they dominate, and the next week, they get dominated.

When these lines were first released with Baltimore as an underdog, I immediately hopped on the +1.5. The market agreed with me, pushing the line to Dallas +1.

I’d be backing the Ravens either way. And even though Lamar Jackson’s team isn’t the actual underdog, at 0-2 on the road against Dallas, the team probably feels like the underdog in this spot.

The only QB better ATS as an underdog than Jackson is Patrick Mahomes.

As for the total, it’s big for a reason. Both teams are 2-0 toward the over, and Jerry World has been trending towards the game total over in the last two seasons.

Both the Ravens’ and Cowboys’ defenses are still adjusting to life with new coordinators. Given the massive total, I lean toward the under, but I likely shy away from two top pass-catchers going head-to-head.

Player Props:

Rico Dowdle led the ground attack for Dallas in Week 2 with seven carries for 30 yards, averaging 4.3 yards per carry. He started and had the first carry. Ezekiel Elliott carried the ball six times for 16 yards. Deuce Vaughn had four rushes for 11 yards. Dowdle also contributed to the passing game, catching four of five targets for 29 yards.

The snaps were 43 percent for Dowdle, 40 percent for Elliott, and 14 percent for Vaughn. Elliott ran the most routes.

It’s an ugly 3-way committee that nobody can confidently project the usage. As a result, I’ll take the under on Elliott’s rushing prop. Both RBs to face Baltimore this season went UNDER their rushing totals by more than 13 yards.

Mark Andrews was targeted five times (15% target share) and brought in four receptions for 51 yards in Week 2, with 16 YAC, a 63% snap share, and 73% route participation.

Week 1 was a mirage. Andrews is still a very important part of the Ravens’ passing game. From Weeks 2-9 of the 2023 season, Andrews went over 3.5 catches every week.

My Picks:

Kansas City Chiefs @ Atlanta Falcons

Sides:

  • The Chiefs have won each of their last eight games.
  • The Chiefs have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games.
  • The underdogs have covered the spread in 12 of the Chiefs’ last 15 games.
  • The Falcons are 6-11-2 ATS since the start of 2023.
  • Better at home, finishing at 5-4 straight up.
  • Better at home, finishing at 5-4 straight up.
  • However, the underdogs have won 10 of the Falcons’ last 14 games.

Totals:

  • Eight of the Falcons’ last nine games against AFC opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Falcons rank sixth in fewest red-zone TDs allowed per game
  • Atlanta has a 22-point implied team total in Week 2.
  • Six of the Chiefs’ last nine games have gone UNDER the total points line (eight of the last 11).
  • Since the start of 2023, the Chiefs have not allowed a team to score 27 points against them.
  • They are undefeated when they hold teams to 17 points or less.

Overall:

I know fantasy football managers are throwing their hands up and trying to figure out which RB from KC to start this week after the injury to Isiah Pacheco. My ten cents? The answer could be nobody. The Chiefs have annually been one of the highest ranked teams in pass rate over expectation, and an injury to their starting RB suggests that they will just throw more.

Conversely, do we believe that the Falcons will throw more after Kirk Cousins drove them down to victory in the final seconds of Monday Night Football?

Atlanta went 2-9 converting on third downs in Week 2. One was the TD to give Atlanta the go-ahead score.

I don’t believe so. Their best player is Bijan Robinson. Through two weeks, it’s so clear the offense is designed to feature him more than anybody else. We know the Chiefs defense tries to take away what you do best. But to presume they can just completely eliminate the Falcons’ rushing attack in their first road game is a bit of a stretch. Robinson is like any other RB they have yet to face this season. Atlanta’s path to victory isn’t through a shootout against Patrick Mahomes. They won on Monday Night by holding the Eagles under 24 points and 200 yards on offense.

And the Chiefs offense still isn’t firing on all cylinders. Partick Mahomes’ aDOT through two weeks: 5.1. Dead last.

Come to think, this Chiefs team has won by the slightest margins at home the last two weeks – by a toe in Week 1 and by a Harrison Butker field goal in Week 2. They could easily be 0-2 as they could be 2-0. Now, great teams find a way to win. That’s been the Chiefs since last season. But for how long can they keep winning by these slim margins?

Their first road game against Atlanta – who have been solid on defense – represents challenges. But that’s not to say the Falcons have been perfect on offense, either. Still, they have momentum they can build on after a huge win on Monday Night Football.

I’ll take the Falcons as home underdogs at +3, with the trends favoring underdogs in both Falcons/Chiefs games. As for the total, under for me in prime time – 46.5 is hefty when neither team has shown the consistent firepower to put this way over.

Like I said earlier, the Falcons cover (or win) by keeping this game within striking distance.

Player Props:

If Saquon Barkley caught that pass from Jalen Hurts on Monday night, Kirk Cousins would have attempted just 23 passes. He’s already finished under his prop line of 32.5 twice this season, as the Falcons have been more run-heavy the most projected this offseason. Through two games, they rank 27th in pass rate over expectation (-11%). It’s possible this increases as Cousins gets more comfortable in the offense, but it’s so clear that this offense wants to run through Bijan Robinson. Even at 31.5 pass attempts, I love the under.

Same for the under on his No. 1 WR. London got six receptions, with two catches coming on the final drive in Week 2. Two weeks in, and I’m still skeptical that London is even the true No. 1 WR on this offense, considering he is tied with Darnell Mooney for second on the team in targets.

We know the Chiefs will take away the Falcons’ best weapon. Through two weeks, this has allowed players like Isaiah Likely and Mike Gesicki to see a ton of production. No team has allowed more targets, catches, or yards to TEs. Ergo, this should be a solid spot for Kyle Pitts.

My Picks:

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