NFL Week 3 Composite Power Ratings (2024)

Each week, I compile power ratings from a bevy of respected sources across the NFL handicapping community. Power ratings are designed to identify how many points a team would be favored by against an average team on a neutral field. By calculating the difference in ratings between the two teams (and adjusting for home-field advantage), you can get a ratings-implied spread to compare to the actual spread. In the second section, I’ve done that while assuming a value of 1.5 points for home-field advantage and using the composite spread from all the sources. Additionally, I’ve provided some comments on trends and numbers that stood out to me.

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Week 3 NFL Composite Power Ratings

• One of the biggest movers this week, once again, is the New Orleans Saints. I, like many others out there, am eating crow on this Saints team. I previously thought they were going to be dreadful, yet would benefit from an easier schedule by being in the NFC South. I thought Week 1 was a mirage, facing the lowest-rated team in the league, and things would drop back down to earth once they faced a good Dallas Cowboys team. Well, that was not at all the case, and Klint Kubiak has this offense humming. They do face a tough schedule ahead, though, facing three teams ranked in the top 18 of the ratings, so we’ll get an even better sense of whether they’re a top 5 team or should be in the 8-10 range.
• Another standout team that rose dramatically was the Arizona Cardinals. While they don’t have as strong a defense as New Orleans, Arizona has the third-best offense by EPA per play. Though, their 46.4% success rate (which ranks 12th in the league) suggests they may be a bit more dependent on big plays. Still, with both Los Angeles and San Francisco currently dealing with a litany of injuries, the window is slightly open for the Cardinals to make a push for the playoffs, if not the NFC West division title.

Week 3 Matchups

• Even though the Carolina Panthers made a quarterback change from Bryce Young to Andy Dalton, their rating didn’t move much (it’s gone down just slightly). The Panthers also went from 7-point underdogs against the Raiders when lines opened to now being 5.5-point underdogs, suggesting that Dalton is about 1.5 spread points better than Young (I agree with that and would even suggest he’s worth a full two points with how poor Young has played). That said, if you trust the ratings, that move may have been a bit too much as the ratings suggest the Raiders should be favored by 6.7 points.
• A bigger shock is the rating spread suggesting that the Vikings should be favored over the Texans. Now, this depends on what your value of home-field advantage is (I’m using a base 1.5 points), but composite still has Houston as only 1.2 points better than Minnesota. Houston, though, is one of the more divisive teams with a ratings standard deviation of 2.0, which is second behind the Packers, who are currently dealing with a quarterback injury. This is probably a stay-away game for me from a spread perspective as I have this spread dead on based on my ratings. However, Minnesota is still in play as a potential teaser leg if this stays at a 2.5-point spread.