NFL Week 3 Early Odds, Best Bets & Trends (2023)

by Austin MacMillan |
Sep 19, 2023

Here is an early look at NFL Week 3 odds and trends.

NFL Week 3 Early Odds & Trends

Giants @ 49ers - Thursday, Sept. 21 - 8:15 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines: SF -10.5 | O/U 45

Giants trends:

Previous 20 games: 13-7 ATS
Previous 15 games as an underdog: 11-4 ATS
Previous 10 games as an underdog: 6-3-1 to the Under

49ers trends:

Previous 10 games as a favorite: 8-2 ATS, 7-3 to the Over
Previous 15 home games: 13-2 ATS
Brock Purdy (Career): 8-2 ATS

Best bet: SF -10.5 (-108)

Both teams have been very good in recent years in this spot ATS, but I'll go with the 49ers playing at home on a short week against a Giants team that will likely be without the services of Saquon Barkley.

Falcons @ Lions - Sunday, Sept. 24 - 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines: DET -3.5 | O/U 45.5

Falcons trends:

Previous 6 games as a road team: 5-1 to the Under
Previous 10 games as an underdog : 8-2 to the Under
Previous 6 games as an underdog: 1-5 ATS

Lions trends:

Previous 10 games: 8-2 ATS
Previous 10 home games: 7-3 ATS
Previous 10 home games: 8-2 to the Over

Best bet: DET -3.5 (-110)

Since Dan Campbell took over as head coach, the Lions have been able to dictate the game pace in their favor, heavily trending toward the over, especially at home. Atlanta will try to do what they've done in the first two weeks to make this game ugly, but I think Jared Goff and this explosive Lions offense will outpace the Falcons in this one.

Chargers @ Vikings - Sunday, Sept. 24 - 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines: LAC -1 | O/U 54

Chargers trends:

Previous 10 games on the road: 7-3 ATS
Previous 5 games: 4-1 to the Over
Previous 10 games as a road favorite: 6-3-1 to the Over

Vikings trends:

Previous 10 games: 8-2 to the Over
Previous 15 home games: 12-3 to the Over
Previous 10 games as an underdog: 2-7-1 ATS

Best bet: Over 54 (-110)

Both teams trend heavily toward the over in this spot, and each team's defense has shown the propensity to give up points through the first two weeks.

Bills @ Commanders - Sunday, Sept. 24 - 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines: BUF -6.5 | O/U 44.5

Bills trends:

Previous 10 games as a road favorite: 9-1 to the Under
Previous 10 road games: 8-2 to the Under
Previous 20 games: 13-7 to the Under

Commanders trends:

Previous 10 games as a home underdog: 8-2 to the Under
Previous 20 home games: 16-4 to the Under
Previous 10 games as an underdog: 6-3-1 ATS

Best bet: Under 44.5 (-110)

Despite the high-powered nature of the Bills offense, they actually trend heavily to the under in this spot, which the Commanders do as well

Saints @ Packers - Sunday, Sept. 24 - 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines: GB -1.5 | O/U 43

Saints trends:

Previous 10 games on the road: 7-3 to the Under
Previous 20 games as an underdog: 14-6 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a road underdog: 13-7 ATS

Packers trends:

Previous 10 games: 7-3 ATS
Previous 20 home games: 13-7 ATS
Previous 10 games as a favorite: 3-7 ATS

Best bet: Under 43 (-110)

Both teams have been profitable ATS in these spots, but the Saints tend to slow the pace of play down these positions, which has resulted in Unders far more often than not.

Titans @ Browns - Sunday, Sept. 24 - 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines: CLE -3.5 | O/U 41.5

Titans trends:

Mike Vrabel as an underdog (Career): 25-15-1 ATS
Previous 10 games on the road: 7-2-1 ATS; 7-3 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a road underdog: 12-7-1 ATS

Browns trends:

Kevin Stefanski as a favorite (Career): 10-18 ATS
Previous 20 games at home: 8-12 ATS
Previous 10 games as a home favorite: 3-7 ATS

Best bet: TEN +3.5 (-110)

This is a classic spot to back Mike Vrabel as a dog, especially catching over 3 points against a historically non-profitable favorite as a head coach in Kevin Stefanski.

Texans @ Jaguars - Sunday, Sept. 24 - 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines: JAC -9.5 | O/U 44

Texans trends:

Previous 10 games as an underdog: 7-3 to the Under
Previous 10 games on the road in the division: 7-3 ATS
Previous 20 games as a road underdog: 14-6 to the Under

Jaguars trends:

Previous 7 games against the Texans: 2-5 ATS
Previous 10 games as a favorite: 2-8 ATS
Previous 15 home games: 11-4 to the Under

Best bet: HOU +9.5 (-100)

Jacksonville has really struggled to cover big numbers in these spots as home favorites, and the low-scoring nature of both teams in these spots will only help Houston, who has done well in the division against the number in recent years.

Patriots @ Jets - Sunday, Sept. 24 - 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines: NE -3 | O/U 37

Patriots trends:

Previous 10 games against the Jets: 8-2 ATS (10-0 SU)
Previous 10 games as a road underdog: 7-3 to the Under
Previous 7 games as a favorite: 5-2 ATS

Jets trends:

Previous 5 games against the Patriots: 0-5 ATS
Previous 6 games as a home team: 5-1 to the Under
Previous 20 games: 14-6 to the Under

Best bet: NE -3 (-105)

I don't hate the under in this game either, but Bill Belichick has absolutely owned the Jets over the course of his career, especially recently with Zach Wilson under center.

Broncos @ Dolphins - Sunday, Sept. 24 - 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines: MIA -6.5 | O/U 48

Broncos trends:

Previous 7 games: 6-1 to the Over
Previous 7 games as an underdog: 5-2 ATS
Previous 20 games: 8-12 ATS

Dolphins trends:

Previous 10 home games: 7-3 to the Under
Previous 15 home games: 10-5 ATS
Previous 17 games as a favorite: 12-5 to the Under
Tua Tagovailoa (Career): 21-14 ATS

Best bet: MIA -6.5 (-110)

Despite Denver having a reputation as an under team, they've actually trended heavily toward the over recently. Therefore, I'll take the Dolphins laying less than a touchdown in a spot that they have smashed recently against a broken Broncos squad.

Colts @ Ravens - Sunday, Sept. 24 - 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines: BAL -7.5 | O/U 44

Colts trends:

Previous 5 road games: 5-0 to the Over
Previous 10 games: 8-2 to the Over
Previous 20 games as an underdog: 12-8 ATS

Ravens trends:

Previous 10 home games: 2-7-1 ATS
Previous 11 home games: 10-1 to the Under
John Harbaugh as a favorite (Career): 78-83-5

Best bet: Colts +7.5 (-110)

The Ravens tend to be a more profitable team to back as an underdog; I'll take the Colts getting over a touchdown in this spot where the Ravens tend to skew toward the under, making it harder to cover this number.

Panthers @ Seahawks - Sunday, Sept. 24 - 4:05 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines: SEA -4.5 | O/U 42.5

Panthers trends:

Previous 10 games as an underdog: 7-3 ATS
Previous 20 games as a road underdog: 12-8 ATS
Previous 30 games as a road underdog: 18-12 to the Over

Seahawks trends:

Previous 10 games: 2-8 ATS
Previous 10 games as a home favorite: 3-7 ATS
Previous 20 home games: 13-7 to the Under

Best bet: CAR +6.5 (-110)

I'll take Bryce Young and company to get this cover, as Pete Carroll and the Seahawks have been a much better team to back as an underdog, evident by his career record (61-64-5 ATS as a favorite) as well as their recent performances as a favorite.

Cowboys @ Cardinals - Sunday, Sept. 24 - 4:25 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - DAL -12.5 | O/U 43.5

Cowboys trends:

Previous 20 games: 13-7 ATS
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 14-6 ATS
Mike McCarthy as a favorite (Career): 102-70-4

Cardinals trends:

Previous 20 games as an underdog: 13-7 ATS
Previous 20 games at home: 8-12 ATS
Previous 10 home games against NFC opponent: 7-3 to the Over

Best bet: DAL -12.5 (-110)

Both teams have some ATS trends in their favor in this matchup, but Dallas has shown the ability to handle their business in an impressive way against inferior opponents this year. Additionally, Mike McCarthy is the NFL's most profitable active head coach as a favorite, covering the number at a 60.1% clip.

Bears @ Chiefs: Sunday, Sept. 24 - 4:25 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - KC -13 | O/U 48

Bears trends:

Previous 20 games: 5-14-1 ATS; 13-7 to the Over
Previous 20 road games: 7-13 ATS; 13-7 to the Over
Previous 20 games as a road underdog: 6-14 ATS; 13-7 to the Over

Chiefs trends:

Previous 20 games at home: 7-13 ATS; 7-13 to the Over
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 8-12 ATS
Patrick Mahomes as a favorite of 3+ points (Career): 31-38-1 ATS

Best bet: Over 47.5 (-110)

Even with the trends in the Bearsâ€™ favor with the history of Mahomes as a big favorite, I don't trust them to cover this spread of nearly two touchdowns. Instead, I'll fade this horrible Bears defense by taking the over, which is also supported by Chicago's trends.

Steelers @ Raiders- Sunday, Sept. 24 - 8:20 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - PIT -1 | O/U 44

Steelers trends:

Kenny Pickett (Career): 8-5 ATS
Previous 10 games: 7-3 ATS
Previous 10 games on the road: 7-3 ATS
Previous 20 games: 13-7 to the Under

Raiders trends:

Previous 10 home games: 7-3 ATS; 6-3-1 to the Over
Previous 20 games as an underdog: 12-8 ATS
Previous 20 games as a home underdog: 12-8 ATS; 13-7 to the Over

Best bet: LV +1 (-110)

I feel much more comfortable backing Tomlin and the Steelers as an underdog, and I really don't trust what I've seen from them offensively in the opening weeks, especially without WR Diontae Johnson.

Eagles @ Buccaneers - Monday, Sept. 25 - 7:15 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - PHI -5.5 | O/U 46

Eagles trends:

Previous 20 games: 13-7 to the Over
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 12-8 to the Over
Previous 10 games on the road: 3-7 ATS

Buccaneers trends:

Previous 20 games: 7-12-1 ATS
Previous 20 games as an underdog: 12-8 to the Over
Previous 10 home games: 3-6-1 ATS

Best bet: Over 46 (-110)

The Eagles haven't necessarily been the juggernaut that we saw roll through the regular season last year, so I'd rather take the over, which both teams have trended toward in recent spots similar to this one.

Rams @ Bengals - Monday, Sept. 25 - 8:15 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - CIN -2 | O/U 43.5

Rams trends:

Previous 10 games: 3-6-1 ATS; 8-1-1 to the Under
Previous 10 games as a road underdog: 3-6-1 ATS; 7-2-1 to the Under
Matthew Stafford (Career): 90-104-5 ATS

Bengals trends:

Previous 10 games: 7-3 ATS
Previous 10 home games: 7-3 ATS
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 12-8 ATS
Joe Burrow (Career): 33-16-1 ATS

Best bet: CIN -1.5 (-110)

The Bengals have struggled out of the gate in each of the past two seasons, so it should be no surprise that this year has been no different, especially with Burrow missing a significant portion of training camp. I trust Cincinnati to bounce back in a great spot against a Rams team that has not fared well in these positions of late.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:

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