NFL Week 3 Line Movement Analysis (2024)
Tracking how lines move throughout an NFL week can provide meaningful information to bettors. In general, lines become more sharp throughout the week as the sportsbook collects more information.
Each game will have its reasoning for movement (e.g., injuries, betting activity, weather, etc.) and varying degrees of impact on the line.
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NFL Week 3 Line Movement Analysis
The table below is intended to summarize the home team spread and total movement for this week’s games to help provide context for any significant movements.
| Home Spread | Total | ||||||
| Away | Home | Open | Current | Diff | Open | Current | Diff |
| LAC | PIT | -2.5 | -1 | -1.5 | 37.5 | 36 | -1.5 |
| PHI | NO | +1 | -2.5 | 3.5 | 49.5 | 49.5 | 0 |
| CHI | IND | -1.5 | -1.5 | 0 | 43.5 | 43.5 | 0 |
| DEN | TB | -7 | -6.5 | -0.5 | 39.5 | 41 | 1.5 |
| HOU | MIN | +2 | +2 | 0 | 45.5 | 46 | 0.5 |
| NYG | CLE | -7 | -6.5 | -0.5 | 39 | 38.5 | -0.5 |
| GB | TEN | -1.5 | -2.5 | 1 | 37.5 | 38 | 0.5 |
| CAR | LV | -7 | -5 | -2 | 38.5 | 40 | 1.5 |
| MIA | SEA | -6.5 | -4.5 | -2 | 42 | 41.5 | -0.5 |
| SF | LAR | +7.5 | +7 | -0.5 | 46.5 | 44 | -2.5 |
| BAL | DAL | -1 | +1 | 2 | 48 | 48 | 0 |
| DET | AZ | +3.5 | +3 | -0.5 | 51.5 | 51.5 | 0 |
| KC | ATL | +4.5 | +3.5 | -1 | 46.5 | 46.5 | 0 |
| JAX | BUF | -6 | -5 | -1 | 46.5 | 45.5 | -1 |
| WAS | CIN | -7 | -7.5 | 0.5 | 47.5 | 47 | -0.5 |
(Lines per DraftKings Sportsbook | Line movement via EV Analytics | Open odds as of Monday morning | Current odds as of Thursday evening)
NFL Week 3 Spread Movement Analysis
Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints: +1 → -2.5
This Eagles-Saints spread is one of two on the Week 3 slate to have jumped the fence from its opening number, and much of that had to do with Philadelphia’s poor performance on Monday night when it blew a late fourth-quarter lead to the Falcons. New Orleans was always going to be a popular play regardless of if the Eagles won or lost last week, as the Saints have scored the most points through two games of a season (91) by any team since the 2009 Saints. Those 91 points are also four shy of the NFL record 95 set by the 1968 Oakland Raiders. Meanwhile, the Eagles passing attack will likely once again be compromised as A.J. Brown is expected to miss another week with a hamstring injury.
Carolina Panthers at Las Vegas Raiders: -7 → -5
Usually when a team makes a switch to bench their starting quarterback in favor of their backup quarterback, the line moves against them. However, this was not the case when Carolina announced veteran Andy Dalton would start in place of Bryce Young, as Young had an NFL-worst 8.9 Total QBR this season. In addition, among 30 quarterbacks with at least 10 starts over the last two seasons, Young ranks 29th in QBR, 30th in win-loss record, 30th in completion percentage, 30th in yards per attempt, and last in off-target percentage. This is still a Panthers team that has the worst scoring differential (-60) through two games of a season since the 2019 Dolphins, but regardless, there is still more faith in Dalton than Young.
NFL Week 3 Total Movement Analysis
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams: 46.5 → 44
No total has moved more than this one between the two NFC West rivals, and injuries are the biggest reason why. Bettors already knew the Rams would be without Puka Nacua and the 49ers would be without Christian McCaffrey, as both players are on IR. However, the confirmation of Deebo Samuel and Cooper Kupp being out takes away arguably each team’s biggest receiving threat, and now George Kittle was the latest surprise addition to the injury report (his status looks bleak) after missing Thursday’s practice. Not to mention, Los Angeles was already without three starting offensive linemen, so oddsmakers do not seem too concerned that the Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these teams.
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals: 51.5 → 51.5
Just because the total is currently at the same number as the opening number, that does not tell the whole story of the line movement throughout the week. The first move was up to 52 then plummeted to 51 soon after. At that lower number, Over backers drove the total to the week-long high of 52.5 before it settled back at the opening number of 51.5. Since the start of the 2023 season, the Under is 12-2 on totals that kicked off at 50 or higher, and with this being the highest projected total of the week, it is worth noting that Unders are also 16-6 in the last 22 games with the highest total of the week, including cashing in each of the first two weeks this year.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.