NFL Week 3 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Underdog Bets (2024)
Last week was a great one to bet on the underdogs in the NFL. Kudos to anyone who bet on the Raiders to beat the Ravens outright at +350 (the spread was Raiders +9). For the week, the underdogs went 11-4-1 against the spread (ATS). Eight underdogs won outright in Week 2. How many could do it in Week 3?
That’s a tricky question to answer, but we have identified some candidates.
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Best Week 3 Underdog Bets
(Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Packers (+114) vs. Titans (-2.5)
- Sunday, September 22 @ 1 p.m. ET on FOX
- Nissan Stadium in Nashville, TN
Based on last week’s performance, the Packers will try to control the game by running the ball down the throat of the Tennessee defense. But they’ll also throw it just enough to keep the Titans’ defense from focusing too much on stopping the run.
However, if the stats are any indication, this plan will not work. Tennessee has the No. 10 run defense (92 yards per game allowed) and the No. 1 passing defense (114 yards per game allowed). Wait a minute… with stats like those, how in the world are the Titans 0-2?
There are a couple of reasons:
- They gave up a special teams touchdown and a pick-six to a dreadful Bears team in Week 1, losing 24-17 despite holding Chicago to 148 yards of offense
- Turnovers. One cost the Titans a touchdown vs. the Jets; another led to a touchdown for New York.
Green Bay’s defense may not be hard on Will Levis and the Titans’ offense, but the Titans’ defense looks better on paper than it is due to poor competition. If Jordan Love plays (a possibility, according to the rumor mill), the Packers win. But even without him, they have a good shot.
Pick: Packers Moneyline (+114)
Dolphins (+164) vs. Seahawks (-4.5)
- Sunday, September 22 @ 4:05 p.m. ET on CBS
- Lumen Field in Seattle, WA
It is not hard to understand why the Dolphins are underdogs in this game. Without Tua Tagovailoa behind center, the offense will not be the same. It will likely be better this week than after Skylar Thompson stepped in vs. the Bills after practicing for a week as the starter. But it will still pale in comparison.
However, Thompson does not have to be great for the Fins to win. He just has to do well enough to keep the Seattle defense from loading the box against the run. De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert could take control of the game if he can do that.
But Seattle’s defense is so good. Is it, though? Two weeks into the season they have the sixth-best defense in terms of total yards and the second-best pass defense in yards per game allowed (128.5). However, they have not been good against the run (142 yards per game allowed).
Then there’s the competition Seattle has faced — Denver Broncos and New England Patriots (who ran for 185 yards). Yes, the Seahawks are 2-0 and Geno Smith looked great when throwing for 327 yards last week, but they have faced two subpar teams and both games were tight.
Miami has a solid defense. Smith will not throw for 300+ yards again. But the Fins will run for 200+.
Pick: Dolphins Moneyline (+164)