Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 3 Picks & Predictions: Raiders vs. Titans (2022)
Here is my breakdown for Raiders vs. Titans along with my top predictions and top picks.
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Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 3 Picks & Predictions: Raiders vs. Titans
Las Vegas Raiders at Tennessee Titans
Check out our Raiders at Titans matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Sept. 25, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: Nissan Stadium
- TV: FOX
Raiders at Titans: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Raiders -2
- Over/Under: 45.5
- Moneyline: Raiders -129, Titans +110
Raiders at Titans: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Sept. 21.
- Spread: Raiders - 41% bets, 44% money
- Over/Under: Under - 45% bets, 91% money
- Moneyline: Raiders - 36% bets, 57% money
Raiders at Titans: Key Injuries
Las Vegas Raiders: Week 3 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Andre James | C | Concussion | DNP |
| Chandler Jones | DE | NIR-rest | DNP |
| Tre’von Moehrig | FS | Hip | DNP |
| Bilal Nichols | DT | Shoulder | DNP |
| Denzel Perryman | MLB | Ankle | DNP |
| Hunter Renfrow | WR | Concussion | DNP |
| Brandon Bolden | RB | Hamstring | LP |
| Jermaine Eluemunor | OT | Hip | LP |
| Neil Farrell | DE | Shoulder | LP |
Las Vegas Raiders: IR, PUP & Out
- CB Anthony Averett (thumb, IR): OUT
- RT Brandon Parker (triceps, IR): OUT
- EDGE Jordan Jenkins (knee, IR): OUT
- LB Micah Kiser (leg, IR): OUT
Tennessee Titans: Week 3 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Ugo Amadi | SAF | Ankle | DNP |
| Bud Dupree | OLB | Hip | DNP |
| Jamarco Jones | OT | Triceps | DNP |
| Taylor Lewan | OT | Knee | DNP |
| Ola Adeniyi | OLB | Neck | LP |
| Denico Autry | DT | Not Injury Related | LP |
| Treylon Burks | WR | Ankle | LP |
| Kristian Fulton | CB | Hamstring | LP |
| Dontrell Hilliard | RB | Hamstring | LP |
| Joe Jones | LB | Hamstring | LP |
| Kyle Philips | WR | Shoulder | LP |
Tennessee Titans: IR, PUP & Out
- EDGE Harold Landry (knee, IR): OUT
- CB Elijah Molden (groin, IR): OUT
- LB Monty Rice (ankle, IR): OUT
- RB Trenton Cannon (knee, IR): OUT
- LT Taylor Lewan (knee): DNP on Wed., feared OUT for year
Raiders at Titans: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Las Vegas Raiders Trends
- QB Derek Carr: 13-24-1 ATS (25.2% ROI for faders) as favorite
- QB Derek Carr: 1-7-1 ATS (60.9% ROI for faders) as favorite vs. playoff team
Tennessee Titans Trends
- HC Mike Vrabel: 18-12 ATS (15.3% ROI) as underdog
- HC Mike Vrabel: 8-4 ATS (27.7% ROI) as home underdog
- HC Mike Vrabel: 5-1-1 ATS (54.2% ROI) off back-to-back losses
Raiders at Titans: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don't Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Raiders Offense vs. Titans Defense: 2022
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.083 | 22 | 0.141 | 27 | 5 |
| Total SR | 43.9% | 16 | 45.6% | 19 | 3 |
| Total DVOA | -16.0% | 24 | 17.9% | 29 | 5 |
Raiders Offense vs. Titans Defense: 2021
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.001 | 20 | -0.018 | 10 | -10 |
| Total SR | 45.2% | 13 | 42.6% | 8 | -5 |
| Total DVOA | -3.4% | 19 | -2.3% | 12 | -7 |
Titans Offense vs. Raiders Defense: 2022
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.153 | 31 | 0.065 | 23 | -8 |
| Total SR | 42.5% | 19 | 48.0% | 30 | 11 |
| Total DVOA | -19.2% | 29 | 0.8% | 15 | -14 |
Titans Offense vs. Raiders Defense: 2021
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.025 | 15 | 0.061 | 25 | 10 |
| Total SR | 44.7% | 15 | 44.5% | 15 | 0 |
| Total DVOA | -4.2% | 20 | 0.6% | 17 | -3 |
Ravens at Patriots: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don't Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 32 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR. 2021 data: Min. 200 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Derek Carr
- EPA + CPOE: 0.038 (No. 20)
- AY/A: 6.5 (No. 17)
- QBR: 40.6 (No. 21)
- ATS Value vs. Average: -0.3 (No. 19)
2021: Derek Carr
- EPA + CPOE: 0.105 (No. 16)
- AY/A: 7.4 (No. 12)
- QBR: 58.4 (No. 14)
- ATS Value vs. Average: 0.0 (No. 16)
Career: Derek Carr
- AY/A: 7.1
- QB Elo per Game: 14.0
2022: Ryan Tannehill
- EPA + CPOE: 0.042 (No. 18)
- AY/A: 6.3 (No. 20)
- QBR: 48.3 (No. 17)
- ATS Value vs. Average: -0.6 (No. 22)
2021: Ryan Tannehill
- EPA + CPOE: 0.113 (No. 13)
- AY/A: 6.6 (No. 20)
- QBR: 61.8 (No. 8)
- ATS Value vs. Average: 0.1 (No. 15)
Career: Ryan Tannehill
- AY/A: 7.1
- QB Elo per Game: -4.6
Key Matchup: Titans Pass Rush vs. Raiders Pass Blocking
Even without EDGE Harold Landry (knee, IR), the Titans defensive line has a marked advantage over the Raiders offensive line in our FantasyPros unit power rankings.
| Rank | Defensive Line | Opp OL | OL Rank | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | TEN | LV | 30 | 17 |
Specifically, the Titans this year have exceled at rushing the quarterback, and the Raiders have struggled most in pass protection.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 8.6% | 25 | 9.5% | 6 | -19 |
If C Andre James (concussion) misses another game, I think the right side of the offensive line will be especially vulnerable. In his absence last week, rookie RG Dylan Parham shifted to center, and undrafted fourth-year backup Lester Cotton got his first NFL start filling in at right guard. Second-Team All-Pro DT Jeffery Simmons (8.5 sacks last year) could wreak havoc against those two.
And on the end of the line is RT Jermaine Eluemunor, a journeyman backup who has played most of his snaps at guard. He will likely be outmatched by EDGEs Denico Autry and Bud Dupree (hip, assuming Dupree plays).
This line was Titans -1.75 in the preseason market. Yeah, the Titans are 0-2 — but so are the Raiders.
Best Line: Titans +2.5 (-110, BetMGM)
First Recommended: Titans +2.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Titans -0.5
Limit: Titans +2
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