Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 3 Picks & Predictions: Ravens vs. Patriots (2022)
Here is my breakdown for Ravens vs. Patriots along with my top predictions and top picks.
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Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 3 Picks & Predictions: Ravens vs. Patriots
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots
Check out our Ravens at Patriots matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Sept. 25, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: Gillette Stadium
- TV: FOX
Ravens at Patriots: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Ravens -3
- Over/Under: 43.5
- Moneyline: Ravens -155, Patriots +135
Ravens at Patriots: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Sept. 21.
- Spread: Patriots – 11% bets, 19% money
- Over/Under: Under – 31% bets, 48% money
- Moneyline: Patriots – 78% bets, 97% money
Ravens at Patriots: Key Injuries
Baltimore Ravens: Week 3 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Calais Campbell | DE | NIR-Rest | DNP |
| Devin Duvernay | WR | Concussion | DNP |
| Justin Houston | OLB | NIR-Rest | DNP |
| Marlon Humphrey | CB | Groin | DNP |
| Marcus Peters | CB | NIR-Rest | DNP |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | Knee | FP |
| Travis Jones | DT | Knee | FP |
| Lamar Jackson | QB | Right Elbow | LP |
| Isaiah Likely | TE | Groin | LP |
| James Proche | WR | Groin | LP |
| Ronnie Stanley | OT | Ankle | LP |
| Brandon Stephens | CB | Quad | LP |
| Damarion Williams | CB | Ankle | LP |
Baltimore Ravens: IR, PUP & Out
- EDGE Steven Means (Achilles, IR): OUT
- CB Kyle Fuller (knee, IR): OUT
- OT Ja’Wuan James (Achilles, IR): OUT
- LB Vince Biegel (Achilles, IR): OUT
- EDGE David Ojabo (Achilles, PUP): OUT
- EDGE Tyus Bowser (Achilles, PUP): OUT
- RB Gus Edwards (knee, PUP): OUT
New England Patriots: Week 3 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Kyle Dugger | S | Knee | DNP |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | Knee | DNP |
| Joshuah Bledsoe | SAF | Groin | LP |
| Cody Davis | DB | Calf | LP |
| Davon Godchaux | NT | Back | LP |
| Raekwon McMillan | MLB | Thumb | LP |
| DaMarcus Mitchell | DE | Knee | LP |
| Adrian Phillips | DB | Ribs | LP |
New England Patriots: IR, PUP & Out
- RB Ty Montgomery (ankle, IR): OUT
- WR Tyquan Thornton (shoulder, IR): OUT
- EDGE Ronnie Perkins (undisclosed, IR): OUT
- CB Joejuan Williams (shoulder, IR): OUT
Ravens at Patriots: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Baltimore Ravens Trends
- HC John Harbaugh: 59-48-6 ATS (8.4% ROI) on road
- QB Lamar Jackson: 16-9 ATS (26.5% ROI) on road
New England Patriots Trends
- HC Bill Belichick: 29-24-1 ATS (7.9% ROI) without QB Tom Brady
- HC Bill Belichick: 30-16-2 ATS (26.8% ROI) as underdog
- HC Bill Belichick: 25-23 ML (33.5% ROI) as underdog
- HC Bill Belichick: 5-1-1 ATS (54.1% ROI) vs. Ravens HC John Harbaugh
- HC Bill Belichick: 5-2 ML (49.3% ROI) vs. Ravens HC John Harbaugh
Ravens at Patriots: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Ravens Offense vs. Patriots Defense: 2022
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.17 | 6 | -0.015 | 11 | 5 |
| Total SR | 43.8% | 17 | 45.7% | 21 | 4 |
| Total DVOA | 31.9% | 1 | -5.3% | 11 | 10 |
Ravens Offense vs. Patriots Defense: 2021
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.009 | 19 | -0.063 | 4 | -15 |
| Total SR | 46.4% | 10 | 42.5% | 7 | -3 |
| Total DVOA | 1.7% | 17 | -12.8% | 4 | -13 |
Patriots Offense vs. Ravens Defense: 2022
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.033 | 17 | 0.103 | 26 | 9 |
| Total SR | 47.5% | 9 | 45.2% | 17 | 8 |
| Total DVOA | 7.4% | 11 | 9.9% | 21 | 10 |
Patriots Offense vs. Ravens Defense: 2021
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.07 | 10 | 0.078 | 27 | 17 |
| Total SR | 48.6% | 4 | 43.2% | 11 | 7 |
| Total DVOA | 10.5% | 9 | 9.3% | 28 | 19 |
Ravens at Patriots: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 32 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR. 2021 data: Min. 200 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Lamar Jackson
- EPA + CPOE: 0.180 (No. 5)
- AY/A: 10.3 (No. 1)
- QBR: 76.5 (No. 4)
- ATS Value vs. Average: 2.3 (No. 6)
2021: Lamar Jackson
- EPA + CPOE: 0.084 (No. 20)
- AY/A: 6.9 (No. 18)
- QBR: 56.8 (No. 17)
- ATS Value vs. Average: 0.4 (No. 14)
Career: Lamar Jackson
- AY/A: 7.8
- QB Elo per Game: 82.1
2022: Mac Jones
- EPA + CPOE: 0.058 (No. 14)
- AY/A: 6.4 (No. 19)
- QBR: 32.0 (No. 26)
- ATS Value vs. Average: -0.1 (No. 17)
2021: Mac Jones
- EPA + CPOE: 0.114 (No. 12)
- AY/A: 7.0 (No. 16)
- QBR: 56.9 (No. 16)
- ATS Value vs. Average: -0.7 (No. 21)
Career: Mac Jones
- AY/A: 6.9
- QB Elo per Game: -14.6
Key Matchup: Patriots Run Defense vs. Ravens Run Offense
Even though this year the Ravens are “only†No. 11 with a 43.0% rush rate, they are a running team at their core. That’s what happens when you have QB Lamar Jackson (a ground attack cheat code) and OC Greg Roman (a run game coordinator by trade).
In trading away No. 1 WR Marquise Brown this offseason and replacing him in the draft with two tight ends (instead of wide receivers), the Ravens signaled that they want to return to their 2019 run-heavy ways.
But they could struggle to run against the Patriots. No. 1 RB J.K. Dobbins (knee) is yet to return from last year’s season-ending injury. No. 2 RB Gus Edwards (knee, PUP) is out. Backup RBs Kenyon Drake (17-39-0 rushing) and Mike Davis (7-15-0) have been pedestrian injury fill-ins.
Additionally, starting LT Ronnie Stanley (ankle) is yet to play this year after appearing in just one game last year and six games the year before that. And backup LT Ja’Wuan James (Achilles, IR) is out.
With all these injuries, the Ravens offense has been predictably terrible on the ground this year, and the Patriots defense has been average at worst.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Rush EPA | -0.264 | 29 | -0.046 | 17 | -12 |
| Rush SR | 27.9% | 31 | 48.8% | 27 | -4 |
| Rush DVOA | -43.5% | 32 | -6.3% | 17 | -15 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 3.04 | 31 | 3.73 | 8 | -23 |
| Yards per Play | 7 | 1 | 4.7 | 6 | 5 |
| Points per Game | 31 | 4 | 17 | 8 | 4 |
As a result, the Patriots defense has been a top-five unit in yards per play and points game through two games — just like the Ravens offense.
If the Patriots keep the Ravens in check on the ground, that could force them into a heavy reliance on the passing game, and while the Ravens have had success in the air this year (No. 1 in pass DVOA, 103.8%) it’s never a positive development to become one dimensional against a Belichick defense.
Plus, the Ravens have had fortuitous matchups to open the year, facing the bottom-two defenses in pass DVOA in Weeks 1-2.
- Jets (Week 1): 55.4% (No. 32)
- Dolphins (Week 2): 48.2% (No. 31)
I’m skeptical that the Ravens pass offense is as good as it has recently looked — and if their run offense struggles in Week 3 then they could have an underwhelming performance overall.
In the preseason market, this number was a pick’em. Not that much has changed between then and now.
Best Line: Patriots +3 (+100, Caesars)
First Recommended: Patriot +3 (-108)
Personal Projection: Patriots -0.5
Limit: Patriots +2
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