NFL Week 3 Survivor Pool Advice: Picks & Predictions (2024)

It seems odd to be congratulating survivor pool contestants for being alive in their respective pools entering Week 3, but after the carnage we saw in the first two weeks, it is a true testament to those who are still competing.

For the second consecutive week, the top moneyline favorite lost outright, as the Baltimore Ravens blew a double-digit fourth quarter lead in Week 2, which followed the Cincinnati Bengals losing to the New England Patriots in Week 1. The difference in the two weeks were that the Bengals were the only one of the top-10 favorites in the opening week to lose, while four of the top five teams last week (Ravens, Lions, Eagles, and Cowboys) all were upset last week.

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I tipped the Lions as one of our “risky plays” last week, and for the second consecutive week, our “contrarian play” also won, so those who have followed that advice have gained a big leg up on the competition having only used the Chicago Bears and Washington Commanders to this point. 

Like last week, my selections for this week will be broken down into the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios if bettors wish to navigate their own path.

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NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Week 3

Safest NFL Survivor Pool Picks

San Francisco 49ers (-360), Cleveland Browns (-300), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-300) 

I am normally not an advocate for picking division games where the favorite is on the road in survivor contests, but Los Angeles is arguably the team most affected by injuries at the moment. Los Angeles was without four offensive linemen in last week’s 41-10 loss to Arizona (its worst loss since 2019), and now the Rams are potentially dealing with another injury to a star wide receiver (Puka Nacua is on IR) after Cooper Kupp was seen in a walking boot after last week. San Francisco dropped to 3-5 in one-possession games since the start of last season (including the playoffs) in last week’s 23-17 loss to the Vikings, but I do not expect Brock Purdy to have another game with two-plus turnovers like last week.

Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson improved to 7-0 all-time against the Jaguars last week (he had been 6-0 against them with Houston), an Cleveland started fast in that road upset with scores on its first three possessions (a touchdown and two field goals). Watson also improved to 5-0 in games where he does not throw an interception, which bodes well when facing a Giants defense that has only picked off one pass this year. And speaking of the Giants defense, they did not force Washington into a single punt last week, as the Commanders scored on all seven drives (all field goals) excluding kneeldowns.

The Buccaneers are off to their fourth straight 2-0 start, and they are 8-2 in their last 10 games dating back to last season, including the playoffs. Tampa Bay does get two matchups with the lowly Panthers later in the season, but the first one is not until December 1, and given how the first two weeks have played out, survivor pool contestants should not save a team like Tampa Bay for that matchup given that there is no guarantee they will last that long. The Buccaneers have a big scheduling advantage hosting the Broncos in the 1:00 p.m. ET time slot, and Denver is off to its second straight 0-2 start, while falling to 0-5 in September under Sean Payton. The Broncos scored zero points on their first seven possessions last week, and their six points against the Steelers were their fewest in a game since November of 2020. Rookie Bo Nix turned in his second straight game with no touchdowns and two interceptions, so until he and the offense gets things figured out, Denver will be a popular team to fade in survivor pools.

Riskier NFL Survivor Pool Picks That Will Be Popular

Cincinnati Bengals (-420), Seattle Seahawks (-250)

Back the Bengals at your own risk, but they cannot be trusted as the top favorite of the week after the egg they laid in Week 1. There is no telling how Cincinnati will respond from last week’s crushing loss to the Chiefs which it had all but won on the last drive, and the Bengals are still just 6-13-1 in September under Zac Taylor.

The Seahawks get the first crack at the Tua Tagovailoa-less Dolphins in a home matchup this week. It is clear that Miami does not fully trust backup Skylar Thompson, as rumors have swirled all week about which quarterback it would bring in, while being heavily linked to Ryan Tannehill. However, Tyreek Hill, De’Von Achane, Jaylen Waddle, and company are still suiting up for the Dolphins, making them a dangerous offense no matter who is under center. And Seattle’s run defense is not exactly awe-inspiring after allowing 185 rushing yards in an overtime in over the Patriots.

Contrarian NFL Survivor Pool Picks to Beat a Large Pool

Las Vegas Raiders (-230)

The Las Vegas Raiders are the definition of a team best suited for the “contrarian picks” section, as they would not likely be a team one would use in survivor pools in any of the remaining five games they have against divisional opponents. The Raiders shrunk from -360 to -230 moneyline favorites after the Carolina Panthers decided to bench Bryce Young in favor of veteran Andy Dalton. But after last week’s 26-3 loss to the Chargers, Carolina extended its streak of not leading in a game to 272 days. The Panthers now own the worst scoring differential (-60) through two games of a season since the 2019 Dolphins, and they have been outscored 108-13 in their last four games. Slow starts are nothing new for Carolina, who is 0-2 for the third straight season (and the fifth time in the last six seasons), so as long as there is no hangover for Las Vegas after last week’s big road win over Baltimore, it should handle Carolina in this home tilt even if the Panthers have a more veteran presence under center.

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.