NFL Week 3 Thursday Night Football Anytime Touchdown Scorer Picks & Predictions
Here are our favorite anytime touchdown scorer player prop bets for Thursday Night Football: Steelers vs. Browns.
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NFL Week 3 Thursday Night Football Anytime Touchdown Scorer Picks & Predictions
David Njoku Anytime TD (+470)
Despite being a trendy fantasy sleeper coming into the season, Njoku's first couple weeks have fallen flat. Njoku has caught4-of-6 targets for 39 yards and zero TDs. Njoku's 11% target share has left plenty to be desired as Jacoby Brissett has been more inclined to look to WRs Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones. Even backup TE Harrison Bryant has more targets than Njoku (8).
Even still, the +470 price tag here is a great value. All of Njoku's targets have been short passes, and three of his four catches have more yards after catch than air yards. Njoku is getting open, getting the ball, and outrunning defenders, even on a small sample size. Two of Njoku's targets have come in the red zone, with one coming at the Jets' 4-yard line last week and falling incomplete. Njoku fits the profile of a player who should convert a high percentage of their targets into TDs.
Jacoby Brissett has nine red zone pass attempts this season, and six have gone to the end zone. I expect him to look Njoku's way when he needs a TD on a tight field. The price on Njoku's TD prop is enough for me to bet on that scenario playing out.
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Diontae Johnson Anytime TD (+230)
Pat Freiermuth's Any Time TD prop is a great value, but if you're looking to diversify your plays Diontae Johnson is a great bet at this price to get in the end zone.
Johnson has a 32% target share – the next highest target share on the team is Freiermuth with 24%. Despite Freiermuth thriving in the short game, Johnson is still who Trubisky looks for when he needs a big play. These targets haven't yet resulted in a TD, but Johnson's 8 TDs in 2021 are a solid tally – I'd expect him to pick up his first of 2022 soon.
The most enticing reason to bet on Johnson to score is the looks he's gotten on deep balls this season. On 16 Steelers deep throws so far this year, Johnson has 7 targets, good for a 44% target share (albeit on a small sample size). He hasn't done a huge amount of damage on these targets, pulling down two catches for 42 yards, but I'd expect him to get a couple of deep shots his way this year.
On the other hand, the deep ball has shredded the Browns this year. On 10 deep pass attempts in 2022, the Browns’ defense has allowed five catches for 239 yards and two TDs. In what will likely be a low-scoring game, the Steelers will have a couple of deep shots in their back pocket when they need a play most. I expect Johnson to be on the receiving end of these plays, and he'll have enough good looks to have a shot at scoring.
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