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NFL Week 3 Thursday Night Football Betting Primer: Expert Picks & Predictions (Giants vs. 49ers)

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Welcome to the Week 3 Thursday Night Preview, proudly presented by Bettingpros.com! I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to be your guide through the NFL’s thrilling world of wagers, offering expert insights and recommendations on everything from sides to totals, and sometimes even player props that could lead to a game-changing single-game parlay. In this edition, we’re laser-focused on the Week 3 Thursday night showdown between the Giants and 49ers, a taste of what’s to come in our official NFL Betting Primer every Friday.

Whether you’re a seasoned betting pro or just starting to explore the exciting realm of NFL wagering - like myself, now that my state has embraced sports betting - this one-game primer is tailored to provide valuable insights and picks for the upcoming matchup and boost those bankrolls into the weekend. Get ready to dive headfirst into the NFL season with a keen betting perspective as we dissect the SF vs. NYG matchup, pinpointing our favorite bets, top picks, and enticing player props. So, fasten your seatbelts for a thrilling journey into the world of NFL betting - it’s time to up your game!

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Thursday Night Football Betting Primer

San Francisco 49ers (SF) vs. New York Giants (NYG) – Spread: SF -10.5

The red-hot SF 49ers take on a Giants' team who narrowly escaped the jaws of defeat to the lifeless Arizona Cardinals in Week 2. The expectation is that Big Blue will be short-handed without star RB Saquon Barkley. It's an obvious spot to expect a Giants beatdown coming off a major comeback win on a short week. It's not a matter of whether the 49ers come away with the win but whether they cover the massive 10-point spread. In the Brian Daboll era, the Giants have lost five games by a 10-point margin or greater. That's more than half of his losses since becoming the Giants' head coach at the start of 2022.

Twice versus Philadelphia last year and once versus Dallas this season - along with matchups versus Detroit and Seattle in 2022. Last year, every single game the Giants got blown out in was preceded by a once-score victory (or tie). So, the same situation they find themselves in on Thursday night.

The Giants' run defense has been underwhelming, to say the least. They are 7th in yards allowed per game and second in rushing TDs allowed, which will prove problematic versus an offense that ranks third in rushing yards per game. I don't envision a scenario where Big Blue can slow down the 49ers offense that has posted back-to-back games with 30 points. Since Brock Purdy took over as the starter last season, the 49ers have scored 30-plus points in 72% of their games; it’s 80% if you remove the game Purdy got hurt in. New York has scored 30 points just three times in the Daboll era…including last week.

On the road, on a short week and undermanned versus a juggernaut squad, I'm backing the 49ers even with a large spread. They should be 2-0 versus the spread this year - Sean McVay just had to kick a pointless FG as time expired last week, and they are just playing at another level than New York.

For totals, I'd lean over on the 49ers team total over 27.5 or just bet the game under at 44.5. The average point total in the games lost by the Giants by 10 points was 42.4.

Player Prop Bets

As for the player props, here are a few injury items to keep in mind before placing bets.

49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk might not play in this game as he is dealing with an AC joint injury. It's a pain tolerance issue, so Aiyuk may not be out there full-time, even if he does suit up. As we often see, when one of the top 49ers playmakers misses games, the other guys just absolutely feast.

Deebo Samuel has been a nearly every down player with a 25% target rate, totaling over 4.5 receptions in both games to start the season (31% target share). Like the over at 4.5 receptions for Week 3. Same for George Kittle with his prop at 3.5 receptions. He's been at 3 catches through Weeks 1 and 2, so he's right on the cusp. If Aiyuk is 100% ruled out (currently a game-time decision), Kittle flies over this number.

If there's no Aiyuk, we should see more of Jauan Jennings on Thursday night, along with Ronnie Bell and Ray-Ray McCloud. When Jennings has played at least 47% of his team's offensive snaps, he has caught at least two passes in 8 of 11 games.

The 49ers’ defense has faced the most pass attempts this season and allowed the second-most completions. The prop bet cheat sheet loves the over on Daniel Jones' completions prop at 19.5 completions, so I like the correlation with the over on his favorite big-bodied pass-catcher. Darren Waller OVER 4.5 receptions is my favorite prop, especially given the plus-money odds on the bet. The 49ers have allowed 7 different players to surpass 4.5 receptions in just two games played. Waller, as the clear No. 1 target in New York, will see plenty enough volume to get there.

Other notes are that we should expect to see more of No. 2 RB Elijah Mitchell after Christian McCaffrey played 100% of the snaps in Week 2, despite a quick turnaround on Thursday night. Head coach Kyle Shanahan said on Monday that he needs to do a better job of making sure Mitchell is in the mix.  Mitchell has earned at least 7 carries in all but one game that he has played alongside CMC, with his two lowest carry totals bottoming out at 5 carries. Five seems like he is the absolute floor for his carries in Week 3.

My Picks:

My Props:

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:


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