NFL Week 3 Thursday Night Football First Touchdown Scorer Picks & Predictions
Here are our favorite first touchdown scorer player prop bets for Thursday Night Football: Steelers vs. Browns.
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NFL Week 3 Thursday Night Football First Touchdown Scorer Picks & Predictions
Nick Chubb First TD Scorer (+500)
Chubb has the shortest odds of any player in this game, and for good reason – the Browns force-feed him the ball early in games. While Cleveland has a legit two-back system with Chubb and Kareem Hunt, Chubb has 13 first quarter rushing attempts to Hunt’s one. Chubb actually has more rush attempts in the first quarter than the Browns receivers have targets in the first quarter combined (12). And one of these rush attempts was a 4-yard TD run – the first TD scored in last week’s game against the Jets.
The Browns have been methodical and conservative in the first quarter this season. They’ve run 34 first quarter plays, and 32 have been either a run or a short pass. If the Browns are going to score early, it’s likely to come on a long drive and come from a short distance. It won’t surprise me at all if that score comes on a run play, and Chubb has commanded a majority of the team’s touches in the first quarter. +500 may be the shortest odds of the game, but it’s exceptional value even so.
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Pat Freiermuth First TD Scorer (+1400)
Given Pat Freiermuth’s usage, this price for First TD scorer feels like a steal. The Steelers, similarly to Cleveland, have called mostly short passes and runs in the first quarter. They’ve thrown nine short passes, and over half of these (5) have gone Feriermuth’s way. Freiermuth has six first quarter targets on the season – the rest of the Steelers’ offensive players have combined for six first quarter targets on the year. It’s clear that as Trubisky tries to establish an early-game rhythm, he looks for his reliable TE on short patterns.
Due to Pittsburgh’s conservative first quarter play calling, their first TD will likely come on a short play after a long drive, similar to the Browns. Freiermuth not only leads the team in first quarter targets, but he only has one fewer first quarter touch than star Steelers RB Najee Harris (+750 First TD). Betting on Freiermuth to score the first TD is betting on Pittsburgh to keep doing what they’ve been doing on offense, and at an excellent price.
I won’t do a full write-up on Freiermuth’s Any Time TD prop (+330), but for similar reasons, I love this play as well.
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