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NFL Week 4 Anytime Touchdown Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

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Touchdowns are why we tune into NFL RedZone each Sunday. Below, I will provide my predictions for players who will appear on RedZone with a TD this week (excludes the Sunday night game).

Below are my results from the 2022 and 2023 seasons to date (assuming one unit per prop).

(Data per Fantasy Points Data | Odds as of Friday afternoon)

Season Week Units ROI Record
All Time +1.7 1.0% 79 – 128
2022  All +8.8 5.2% 68 – 102
2023 1  -2.2  -16.5% 4 – 9 
2023 2 -1.9 -15.4% 4 – 8
2023 3 -3.1 -25.8% 3 – 9

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Best NFL Week 4 Anytime TD Scorer Prop Bets

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills

In what should be a continuing theme, the Dolphins are again involved in the highest total game on the week at 53.5 in Buffalo. Waddle missed out on the 70-point Dolphins explosion due to a concussion but practiced in full Wednesday, so he should be back on the field this week. Last season, Waddle led the team in receiving TDs (8) but is scoreless through two games this year. The passing attack was concentrated between Hill and Waddle last season, who accounted for 52.1% of the team’s targets and should continue that way when both dynamic WRs are on the field this season.

Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers

The Panthers’ defense has been better through the air than on the ground through the first three weeks. They rank top 10 in passing yards allowed but rank 27th in rushing yards allowed per game (136.7). They also have given up six rushing TDs, trailing only the Broncos and Texans (7). I’m willing to take a chance on newly acquired Cam Akers in his first game for the Vikings. He has a chance to overtake goal-line opportunities, with Alexander Mattison struggling to convert in that area to start the season. Mattison has received all 6 carries inside the 10-yard line this season and has not converted any of them.

Denver Broncos at Chicago Bears

I’m continuing to simplify the pick in Bears matchups by choosing the opposing RB. Through three weeks, Aaron Jones (2), Rachaad White (1), and Chiefs RBs (4) have combined for seven total TDs against the Bears’ defense. Williams has been the lead back so far, averaging 14.7 touches through three weeks. He has not scored yet, but this week will be as good of an opportunity as he has had to start the year.

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns

Moore is quietly tied for the team lead in targets (24) with Amari Cooper. The Browns passing offense has been very concentrated between Moore and Cooper to start the year, with no other receiver having more than 11 targets from Watson. Cooper was able to find the end zone as the Browns’ passing offense started to click last week in the win over the Titans. If this usage continues for Moore, it will be only a matter of time before he finds the end zone.

New England Patriots at Dallas Cowboys

Last week, it looked like the Cardinals wouldn’t have a chance as 12.5-point underdogs against the Cowboys, but they ended up with the 28 – 16 upset victory. Prior to that, the Cowboys’ defense had only given up 10 points through the first two weeks of the season. The rushing defense let the Cowboys down against the Cardinals, giving up 222 total yards on the ground and two scores. If the Patriots are to have success against the Cowboys, they will need to be able to run the ball. Ezekiel Elliot has been involved, but Rhamondre is still the lead back, averaging 18.7 touches per game.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Houston Texans

Najee Harris (12.7) has received slightly more touches than Jaylen Warren (9.7) through three weeks. Najee has dominated the rushing attempts, while Warren has received more of the work through the air. With the Texans continuing to struggle to stop the run, I will lean toward Najee taking advantage this week after seeing 19 rushes compared to 8 for Warren last week. The Texans have allowed five rushing TDs to RBs so far this season.

Los Angeles Rams at Indianapolis Colts

Moss’ 27 touches per game trails only Tony Pollard in touches per game over the last two weeks. He has scored in both contests and suddenly has one of the best RB roles in the league. We don’t know what will happen if/when Jonathan Taylor returns to the team, but he should see another massive workload for at least one more week.

Atlanta Falcons at Jacksonville Jaguars

Engram has been a consistent target for Trevor Lawrence this season. He he seen eight targets in back-to-back games but is still looking for the first TD of the year. The Falcons have been susceptible to TE’s this year, allowing Sam Laporta to score his first NFL TD last week and Hayden Hurst to score in Week 1. After a surprising loss to the Texans at home last week, expect the Jags to get the offense back on track against the Falcons in London.

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers

The unfortunate season-ending knee injury to Mike Williams has opened up an opportunity for Palmer to slide into a starting role, at least in the immediate future. The Chargers have a bye coming up in Week 5 and will likely need 1st round pick Quentin Johnston to be more involved post-bye. Palmer has been ahead of Johnston to start the year, running a route on 59.7% of dropbacks compared to just 26.9% for Johnston. Palmer was able to take advantage of the added opportunity last week and scored a TD. The Raiders have allowed five TDs to opposing WRs this season, tied for second worst in the NFL.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints

Olave has been the number-one target in the Saints offense to start the year. He leads the team in target share (32.3%) but is still looking for the first TD of the year. He received another end zone target last week and is averaging over 100 yards per game. He’ll have a good chance to break through against a Bucs secondary that has allowed the 27th most receiving yards per game this season.

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles passing offense funnels most targets (57%) to AJ Brown and Devonta Smith. That said, Goedert has been a reliable target for Hurts throughout his career. Even with the slow start, he has averaged five targets a game this year but is still looking for his first TD after scoring three times in 12 games last season. This pick is more a gut feeling after Devonta Smith had a big game in Week 2, and AJ Brown followed suit in Week 3. The Eagles may try and get the TE more involved this week.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers

After seeing only five touches in Week 1 and not playing in Week 2, Mitchell was much more involved in Week 3, seeing 14 touches. The 49ers are two-touchdown favorites, so expect them to be able to control the ball against the Cardinals, who are coming off an upset win against the Cowboys. McCaffrey is a heavy favorite to score (-300), but I’ll take a risk that Mitchell can find the end zone if he gets 14 touches again this week.

Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans

Burks’ role has been steadily increasing since Week 1, although it has not translated to the box score. Last week, he saw six targets, which only trailed Hopkins (7) on the team. He only caught one of those targets for five yards but led the team with 124 air yards. This was a week after he caught a 70-yard pass from Tannehill but was tackled inside the 5-yard line. The Titans passing offense ranks last in the NFL in touchdowns (1), but Burks is listed at long odds as a result.

Editor’s Note: Burks has been ruled out for Week 4.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

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