3 NFL Week 4 Bets to Fade (2024)

by Mike Fanelli |
Sep 29, 2024

Everyone loves betting on the NFL. However, knowing which bets to make is critical. It's also important to know which bets you should avoid making.

Today, I have three bets you should avoid making in Week 4. I also have three bets in the same games you should make instead. Let's dive into it!

NFL Week 4 Bets to Fade

Avoid Betting Nico Collins Under 80.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

The superstar is off the injury report after a minor hamstring injury earlier in the week. However, Tank Dell won't play Sunday because of a chest injury.
Collins leads the NFL in receiving yards per game entering Week 4 (112.7), totaling 86 or more in every contest despite facing two talented defenses in the past two weeks.
Jacksonville has given up the sixth-most yards per game to wide receivers over the first three weeks (179), surrendering 141 or more in every contest.
The Jaguars have allowed the sixth-most yards per game to outside receivers (121.3) despite ranking 12th in routes run against them by outside receivers. Collins has run 84.4% of his route out wide this season.

Instead, Bet C.J. Stroud Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-145)

Stroud has had only two passing touchdowns over the past two weeks against a pair of talented defenses. However, he had two touchdowns against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 1.
The second-year star averaged 1.5 passing touchdowns per game, totaling two or more in over half the games, including both matchups against the Jaguars.
Jacksonville has allowed the fifth-most touchdowns over the first three weeks (five) despite facing some awful quarterbacks. Last week, they gave up four touchdowns to Josh Allen.
Stroud should pick apart the Jaguars defense that has struggled to get pressure on the quarterback. Furthermore, they will be without defensive leader Foyesade Oluokun and top cornerback Tyson Campbell.

Avoid Betting Brandon Aiyuk Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Aiyuk has gotten off to a slow start, averaging 39.7 receiving yards per game this season, totaling 48 or less in every contest, including last week, despite seeing 10 targets.
He had a chance for a massive performance in Week 3, with Deebo Samuel and George Kittle missing the game. Kittle will play this week, while Samuel is questionable.
Instead, Jauan Jennings has stepped up with Aiyuk struggling, averaging 50.5 yards per game over the first two weeks before totaling 175 in Week 3.
The Patriots held Ja'Marr Chase to 62 yards in Week 1 and Garrett Wilson to 33 last week. Top cornerback Christian Gonzalez has surrendered only 26.3 yards per game in coverage this year.

Instead, Bet DeMario Douglas Over 32.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Douglas shined in Week 3 despite the touch matchup, totaling 69 receiving yards. Furthermore, the second-year receiver has run a team-high 83.8% of his routes from the slot this season.
He has the seventh-best average separation score in the slot (0.131) among wide receivers with at least 40 slot routes over the first three weeks, a better score than Cooper Kupp and Stefon Diggs.
The 49ers rank 23rd in routes run and 25th in targets by opposing slot receivers. Yet, they have surrendered the most yards per game to slot receivers (123.3), giving up 79 or more in every contest.
New England is a heavy underdog in this game, which should lead to Douglas having plenty of opportunities to rack up yards in garbage time.

Avoid Betting Sam LaPorta Under 42.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

LaPorta has struggled to start the season, averaging 31.3 receiving yards per game. By comparison, the former Iowa star averaged 52.3 yards per game as a rookie.
He had 45 yards in Week 1 and 36 last week despite playing only 63% of the snaps because of an ankle injury. However, LaPorta is off the injury report and ready for Monday night's game.
The Seahawks have surrendered the fifth-most yards per game to tight ends over the first three weeks (57.3), giving up 46 or more in back-to-back contests.
Seattle has played two high safety coverage on 46.7% of their snaps this season. LaPorta has played well against this coverage, posting a 1.71 yards per route run average and a 14% target per route run rate.

Instead, Bet DK Metcalf Over 64.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Metcalf had the sixth-most receiving yards in the NFL entering Week 4, averaging 87.3 per contest. The star receiver has had 104 or more in back-to-back games.
He leads the Seahawks in targets with 24, totaling 20 or more in the past two weeks. The only time Metcalf has struggled this year was in Week 1 against Patrick Surtain II.
The Lions have surrendered the most yards to wide receivers this season, giving up 203 per game. They've allowed wide receivers to have 163 or more yards in every contest.
Detroit has failed to stop the opposing team's highest-targeted receiver. They surrendered 110 yards to Cooper Kupp in Week 1, 117 to Chris Godwin in Week 2, and 64 to Marvin Harrison Jr. last week.

Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.