Navigate

NFL Week 4 Betting Primer: Picks & Player Prop Bets (2024)

by |

Introducing the Week 4 edition of the NFL Betting primer, proudly brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m thrilled to be your guide as we delve into each game on the NFL slate. Here, you’ll find expert insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and enticing player props that could pave the way for impressive single-game parlays.

Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 4 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for all remaining Week 4 games on Sunday.

NFL Week 4 Betting Primer

Top Favorites:

  • Steelers -2
  • Lions -3.5
  • Cardinals -3.5
  • Browns ML (-135)

Top Underdogs:

  • Bills ML (+120)
  • Patriots +10.5
  • Jaguars +6

Top Totals:

  • BUF/BAL over 46.5
  • CIN/CAR over 47
  • TB/PHI under 42

Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints

Sides:

  • The Saints have won each of their last four games against NFC South opponents.
  • The Saints have covered the spread in four of their last five games.
  • The Falcons are 5-3 ATS in their last eight home games as underdogs and 7-4 as home favorites on the moneyline.
  • The Falcons are 6-12-2 ATS since the start of 2023.
  • Better at home, finishing at 5-5 straight up.
  • However, the underdogs have won 10 of the Falcons’ last 15 games.
  • Kirk Cousins as a favorite ATS (48%).
  • Derek Carr as an underdog (56%).

Totals:

  • Atlanta is 0-2 towards the over this season at home, averaging 33.5 points per game.
  • The Falcons are on a streak of three straight unders.
  • Four of the Falcons’ last five home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Four of the Saints’ last six games have gone OVER the total points line
  • New Orleans has a top-5 red-zone defense this season.

Overall:

Two starting offensive linemen went down for the Atlanta Falcons in Week 3: Drew Dalman and Kaleb McGary. Dalman was placed on IR, while McGary has an MCL sprain. This will be a potential issue for the Falcons’ offense when they drop back to throw.

New Orleans boasts the fourth-most pressures this season.

Still, the Falcons are traditionally a team that plays better at home. But will playing in front of the hometown crowd improve their offense on third downs? Especially given the OL injuries upfront. Note that after three games, Atlanta’s offense ranks last in third down conversion rate.

They constantly desire to run the football on offense with their best player, Bijan Robinson (on the injury report with a shoulder injury). To protect their immobile quarterback, I expect Atlanta to continue feeding B-Rob (for better or worse) as both a rusher/receiver. I’m not expecting a ton from the Falcons passing attack that continues to be a work in progress. The one weakness we could expect Atlanta to expose would be in the underneath (more RB targets) as Kirk Cousins looks to get the ball out quickly. Per Next Gen Stats, that’s the biggest mismatch for the Falcons offense in this matchup.

The Falcons’ defense has been average, but they still have a major glaring hole: No pressure. That’s going to be problematic against Derek Carr, who has the fourth-highest passer rating from a clean pocket this season.

So even with Saints center Erick McCoy out for the next six to eight weeks, I think we see fireworks from the Saints offense akin to what happened in the first two weeks of the year when Carr was kept clean.

Player Props:

Trust the process. It’s back to Rashid Shaheed week. Shaheed was targeted five times but goose-egged in Week 3. But he was close to a couple of big plays/scores. He still accumulated over 100 air yards with a 53% air yards share. Buy low. The Eagles weren’t the zone-heavy matchup we wanted Shaheed in. The Atlanta Falcons – 12th in zone coverage per FantasyPoints Data Suite – is the spot for a major bounce back. They rank in the top 5 in Cover 3 and 31st in pressure rate.

Per Next Gen Stats, the Falcons have pressured opposing quarterbacks on just 20% of dropbacks, marking the second-lowest pressure rate through the first three weeks of a season since pressure was introduced in 2018. The Saints offensive line has allowed a 14th-lowest 31.4% pressure rate and has surrendered just three sacks, tied for the second-fewest entering Monday night.

It’s the exact recipe for a Derek Carr-Rashid Shaheed bounce-back effort. Over.

Cousins has already finished under his prop line of 31.5 thrice this season, as the Falcons have been more run-heavy than the most projected this offseason. Through three games, they rank 27th in pass rate over expectation (-11%).

My Picks:

Indianapolis Colts vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Sides:

  • The Steelers have covered the spread in each of their last five games in September.
  • The Steelers are 12-6 ATS on the road (67%).
  • The Steelers have won six of their last seven games.
  • The Steelers are 5-4 ATS and on the ML on the road since the start of 2023.
  • Pittsburgh is 13-8 ATS since the start of 2023 and is 3-0 this season.
  • The favorites have won 14 of the Colts’ last 15 games.
  • The Colts are 7-1 as favorites since the start of 2023

Totals:

  • Four of the last six Colts’ games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Each of the last four games between the Steelers and Colts has gone OVER the total points line.
  • Only once has an Anthony Richardson-led offense scored more than 10 points in the first half (seven starts), with seven or fewer points in four of those contests.
  • The Steelers are 3-0 toward the under this season.
  • Nine of the Steelers’ last 12 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

There’s truly no better matchup on paper than the Steelers’ heavy offense against the Colts’ atrocious run defense. Even though the Steelers’ offense hasn’t been uber-efficient, they should be set up for success in this Week 4 matchup.

Per Next Gen Stats, the Colts defense has surrendered the second-most rushing yards this season (537). They rank in the top 8 in the NFL in terms of success rate allowed (37.2%) and EPA per carry allowed (-0.15).

Najee Harris “will be ready to rock and roll,” per head coach Mike Tomlin, after appearing with his arm in a sling earlier in the week. Harris and Arthur Smith’s favorite, Cordarrelle Patterson, are expected to carry the bulk of the load as both rushers and receivers.

Justin Fields has been extremely proficient as the Steelers’ quarterback, with zero turnover-worthy plays through three games. He’s managed the game for the Steelers and has done just enough offensively to help them remain undefeated.

He’s completing passes at the second-highest rate in the NFL—third-highest completion rate over expectation this season.

It’s the polar opposite with Colts QB1, Anthony Richardson. He LEADS the NFL in turnover-worthy play rate (8%) and ranks LAST in completions percentage on passes with a 50% completion probability.

This is a major issue against the Steelers’ defense, especially because Pittsburgh is a tough team to run against, limiting what the home team can do offensively.

Per Next Gen Stats, the Steelers’ defense has allowed opposing rushers to generate positive RYOE on just 24.1% of carries, the third-lowest rate in the NFL. The Steelers have also allowed a league-low -67 rushing yards over expected.

I’m not suggesting Jonathan Taylor can’t find any running room, but it doesn’t project for a career day rushing in Week 4.

The advantages clearly side with Pittsburgh, even on the road. Their offense aligns with the Colts’ greatest weakness. We’ve already seen a run-first offense led by a mobile QB (Malik Willis, Green Bay Packers) take care of business against the Colts this season.

They have defensive personnel to take away the run game and No. 1 WR Michael Pittman Jr., who will likely be shadowed by CB Joey Porter Jr.

I had this spread closer to a PIT -3 in my BettingPros projections.

As for the total, ride the under train. Pittsburgh did the same thing last year, forcing every game toward the under with their elite defense and conservative offensive playcalling.

Player Props:

The Steelers are a “slot-funnel” defense. Colts slot WR Josh Downs contributed with a 25% target share (five) and caught three passes for 22 yards in his season debut. Downs saw a strong target share in his first game back. Take the OVER on his receiving yards prop in Week 4.

Najee Harris was the primary ball carrier on the ground for the Steelers in Week 3, rushing 18 times for 70 yards, but he did not find the end zone. Harris had four opportunities in the red zone. He also saw a season-high 59% snap share in Week 3. Cordarrelle Patterson added 33 rushing yards on four carries, averaging 8.3 yards per attempt. Jaylen Warren was limited to just 5 yards on three carries after leaving with a knee injury. Harris caught all 5 of his targets for 16 yards. We could see Patterson take on the Warren receiving role if the latter misses time. Harris should feast on the ground and find the end zone very soon. He is tied for the NFL lead in red zone carries without a TD this season.

Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth has exactly four receptions in three straight games this season. He’s Fields’ No. 1 short passing target, and that shouldn’t change against the Colts. Indianapolis allowed ten catches to Cole Kmet in Week 3.

In this similar matchup last season between Arthur Smith’s Falcons and Gus Bradley’s Colts, Atlanta heavily featured its tight ends in the offensive game plan. They had 10 targets, seven receptions, and nearly 90 receiving yards.

My Picks:

Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings

Sides:

  • The Packers have won each of their last 11 home games following a road win.
  • The Packers have been the first to 15 points in each of their last eight games.
  • The Packers have won the first quarter in 11 of their last 12 games.
  • Green Bay is 10-6 at home in their last 16 home games (63%) and 9-7 ATS (56%). But over their last 13 home games, they’re just 42% ATS.
  • GB as a favorite: 6-13-1 ATS (32%).
  • The Packers have covered the spread in six of their last seven games.
  • Since 2023, the Packers have been 10-2 when they allowed fewer than 23 points on defense and 9-3 ATS. Green Bay was 4-6 ATS when they allowed more than 23 points on defense.
  • Minnesota has a 20-point implied team total.
  • The Vikings have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games against NFC North opponents.
  • They are 50% ATS (4-4-1) in their last nine games as road underdogs.
  • The Vikings have failed to cover the spread in four of their last six games as underdogs.
  • The Vikings have failed to cover the spread in six of their last nine games. They are 3-0 ATS this season under Sam Darnold.
  • All but five of the Vikings’ last 17 games played have been decided by eight points or less (77%).

Totals:

  • Each of the Vikings’ last three games has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Four of the Vikings’ last six games as underdogs have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Four of the Vikings’ last seven games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Vikings are 3-0 toward the under this season.
  • The Packers are 14-8 toward the over since the start of 2023.
  • From Weeks 1-10 of the 2023 season (before Jordan Love took a major step in his progression), the Packers’ first half-point totals were 10, 23, 14, 10, 10, 23, 23, 7, 27, 10, 19, and 20.
  • Green Bay has averaged 15 points in the first half in Malik Willis’ first two starts this season.
  • Nine of the Packers’ last 11 games have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

Jordan Love is expected to play in Week 4 after a two-week hiatus. His potential return comes at a near perfect time, with an NFC North showdown on the docket.

When these two teams faced off last season, the Vikings were 1.5-point favorites in both spots. The road team won in both matchups last season. Both games went UNDER the total. 34 points were scored in Green Bay and 43 points were scored in Minnesota.

Love was flawless in the second matchup (3 TDs and 250-plus passing yards) while Aaron Jones rushed for 120 yards.

Packers head coach Matt LaFleur has been an absolute wizard offensively as coach so far this season. With Love (hopefully) back against a familiar opponent, they take care of business.

How will the Vikings offense respond if they aren’t operating as frontrunners? That’s been the case for the last three weeks. They’ve been able to build leads and function at a high level on offense.

But this Packers team has been one of the highest-scoring teams early in games since the middle of last season.

And they have been one of the best DEFENSES in forcing opposing quarterbacks into mistakes. For three straight weeks, the QB they have faced has finished first in turnover-worthy play rate.

Quarterback Sam Darnold might not be as perfect as he’s been through the first three weeks of the season even with WR Jordan Addison making his return to the lineup.

But it won’t just be on Darnold for them to move offensively. I think it’s an Aaron Jones revenge game that matters. The Packers didn’t want him back, and he’s been on a hot streak ever since.

Kevin O’Connell would be wise to attack the Packers’ biggest weakness against the run with his ultra-motivated running back and save Darnold from making a bone-headed mistake.

Still, I’m on the Packers’ side here under the impression that Love plays. Also, lean toward the over in that scenario.

But if we get news Malik Willis is starting, I am shifting heavily toward the under on the game total.

Player Props:

We nailed the “over” on Stefon Diggs’ receptions in this exact same spot last week. Rinse and repeat, but this time with Jayden Reed. Again, in a matchup against the blitz-heavy Vikings in Week 4, I’d expect Reed to be heavily involved as the Packers’ quick outlet. In two games against Minnesota last season, Reed averaged 80-plus receiving yards with five catches per contest.

Against the Vikings last season, Tucker Kraft hauled in six catches for 48 yards. Like the move on Reed, quick-short passes will be in high demand in this matchup. I expect the Packers TE1 to play a major role.

As alluded to earlier, Jordan Addison will return to the lineup for the Minnesota Vikings. I like the over on his receiving yards. His BettingPros projections have him over 43.5 yards. He should see favorable looks in this spot if Green Bay uses Jaire Alexander in shadow coverage against Justin Jefferson. And if they don’t … Addison showed last season that he can more than manage. He went a perfect 5-for-5 for 52 yards while Alexander covered him last season. Addison went over 39.5 receiving in over half his games last season with Jefferson healthy.

My Picks:

Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Sides:

  • The Jaguars have lost eight of their last nine games.
  • The Jaguars have covered the spread in 10 of their last 14 road games.
  • The Jaguars have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last nine games.
  • The 2023 Jacksonville Jaguars were 7-4 overall as a favorite. They are just 2-7 as an underdog since the start of last season.
  • The Texans have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games and are 0-3 ATS this season.
  • The Texans are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games as favorites (3-9 ATS as a favorite since the start of 2023).
  • Nine of their last 11 wins have been by seven or fewer points.
  • Overall, Houston is just 10-10 against the spread over its last 20 games.

Totals:

  • The Texans have gone under in 13 of their last 20 games, which featured them playing many offenses that are averaging fewer than 20 points per game.
  • Five of the Jags’ last seven games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Jaguars have scored 24-plus points in five of their last 11 games.

Overall:

Hard to make more excuses for the Jacksonville Jaguars after their shellacking on Monday Night Football and starting 0-3. Not great. But they were 1-2 this time last season. So, it’s not impossible for them to turn things around again. Although their peripherals were much better in 2023.

It’s funny how quickly the tides have turned in the AFC South. The Jags were 8.5-point favorites versus the Texans at home last season, and 1.5-point favorites IN Houston. The Jaguars won outright in the second contest on the road.

Fast forward to Week 4 of the 2024 season, and nobody is giving the Jaguars much of a shot. The line moved from HOU -4.5 to HOU -6 even though both teams are coming off horrible losses.

I should note that the “sharp” money is on the Jaguars. Why? Because the Texans can’t cover the spread as favorites. They’ve constantly been overrated.

And last week we saw that play out more convincingly.

So, if we aren’t backing the public with Houston, are we going back to the Jaguars as road underdogs? Yup. I’m betting on luck—Jacksonville ranks 31st in luck next to the other 0-3 teams per Teamrankings.com—to change for the Jaguars.

How have offenses attacked the Texans’ defense? With downfield shots. No. 1-highest faced air yards per attempt this season at (9.6).

This is exactly what the Jaguars want to do on offense.

Trevor Lawrence is second in the NFL in average depth of throw at 10.6.

Per Next Gen Stats, the Jaguars have averaged the second-deepest route depth in the league through three weeks of the season (10.3). And the Texans defense has been specifically vulnerable against play action.

Lawrence has the fourth-highest completion rate increase when using play action throws this season. I think the Jaguars passing game can do damage in this matchup, with rookie Brian Thomas Jr. the centerpiece of the passing attack.

Back in Week 1 – when the Jaguars offense looked solid for the first half – Lawrence’s play action rate was at 35%. That would be top 5 through the first three weeks of the season. Given that tight end Evan Engram might also return for the Jaguars, this is a spot to buy the dip on Jacksonville.

Houston won’t have Tank Dell, and I expect their ground game to struggle. The Jaguars’ defense sells out to stop the run, with the fifth-highest stacked box rate.

I’d expect the Texans’ passing game with C.J. Stroud and his remaining weapons to take center stage against this horrible Jaguars secondary that is 30th in EPA/pass attempts faced this season. Don’t anticipate the Texans to lean on running back Cam Akers too heavily with Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce both already ruled out ahead of Week 4.

I’ll take the Jaguars catching points on the road and take the over as we see both offenses rebound after poor Week 3 performances.

Player Props:

Nico Collins now. Nico Collins Sunday. Nico Collins forever.

Collins has gone over 79.5 receiving yards in three straight games. He’s gone over 79.5 receiving yards in eight of his last 11 games.

Tank Dell has already been ruled out of this matchup. In four of seven games last year with Dell out of the lineup, the Texans WR1 had at least 80 receiving yards.

Per Next Gen Stats, Collins has totaled 95 receiving yards when lined up against press coverage this season, the third-most in the NFL. The Jaguars have aligned their outside corners in press coverage on 36% of snaps, the fifth-highest rate in the league. They also play the most man coverage in the NFL (61%).

Brian Thomas Jr. has played three NFL games. He’s gone over 47.5 receiving yards in two of the three games. He’s been the one bright spot in the Jaguars offense. With Gabe Davis nursing a shoulder injury, this is where we see BTJ erupt.

My Picks:

Chicago Bears vs. Los Angeles Rams

Sides:

  • The Bears have won each of their last six home games.
  • The home team has covered the spread in seven of the Bears’ last eight games.
  • The Bears are 6-4-1 ATS and 6-5 straight up in their last 11 games.
  • The Rams are below 55% ATS as underdogs since the start of 2023.
  • The Rams 2023 starters are 2-8 as underdogs straight up and 1-2 as underdogs this season (2-1 ATS) after their massive win against the 49ers.
  • The favorites have won 13 of the Rams’ last 14 games.

Totals:

  • Each of the Bears’ last four games has gone UNDER the total points line. They are 7-1-1 toward the under in their last nine games.
  • Ten of the Bears’ last 13 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Rams’ last 10 games with their starters have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Rams are 9-7 toward the O/U in their last 16 games.
  • Against offenses other than the Browns, Cardinals, Seahawks, or injury-plagued Bengals, the Rams allowed at least 20 points on defense in every game in 2023. Only four times since the start of 2023 has the defense allowed fewer than 300 yards of offense.

Overall:

What a gutsy effort from Matthew Stafford last week. The man wills his way with an undermanned-injured roster.

But it will be another tough task on the road against a strong Bears defense, where there are not many advantages in LA’s favor (if at all).

Per Next Gen Stats, almost every advanced metric favor the Bears’ defense against the Rams’ offense.

The one area where the Rams’ defense might have a chance is pressure. If they can get home against Caleb Williams, that will pose problems for the Bears’ offense. We know that Chicago can’t run the football.

They are looking to improve that with a potential RB change (more to come) but it’s more of an OL issue. If the Bears win, it will likely come on the arm of Williams against this dreadful Rams pass defense that ranks 31st in EPA/pass play allowed.

Keenan Allen is back at practice, which can only help the Bears rookie quarterback.

When these lines first opened up early Monday, I was overly convinced to take the Rams as underdogs. But after diving deeper into the matchup, I’m less convinced that LA can duplicate last week’s gutsy performance. Chicago has advantages on both sides of the ball, whereas the coaching/quarterback edge favors the Rams.

I’m not touching sides and instead opting for the over at 40.5, given how bad the Los Angeles’ defense is.

Player Props:

Roschon Johnson led the Bears with eight carries for 30 yards, followed by D’Andre Swift, who rushed 13 times for 20 yards in Week 3. Khalil Herbert contributed nine yards on four carries. Herbie has been strictly used as the Bears’ short-yardage back. All of Herbert’s red-zone attempts were inside the 5-yard line.

Swift did have two red-zone carries in this contest. For negative eight yards. Woof. To make matters worse for Swift, Johnson was active, earning two red-zone carries as well. Johnson played 37% of the snaps in his season debut. Re-watching this game, you could barely tell Swift is the “starter.” He had another drop as well, while Johnson was soaking up targets in the second half.

It’s beyond over for Swift at this point. If he couldn’t get any rushing production done in this layup matchup versus the Colts, it’s not going to happen for him in 2024. The Bears can’t run the ball with Swift against any opponent, even the Rams. Swift hasn’t even come CLOSE to 43.5 rushing yards this season, with his season “high” a staggering 30 yards back in Week 1. Woof.

This hasn’t gone unnoticed by the Bears’ brass. Per ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler:

“Watch for Bears running back Roschon Johnson to possibly get an extended look this week. Chicago has struggled mightily to run the ball and turned to Johnson, more of a bruiser, for eight carries in Week 3 vs. the Colts. The Bears need to get downhill faster.”

Expect the Bears to attack the Rams’ secondary as opposed to their run defense. Interestingly enough, the one area where the Rams run defense is solid is in the red zone. Look for Williams to dial up passing TDs (presuming they score at all).

Given how great the matchup is for these Bears WRs, I love this as a bounce-back spot for D.J. Moore. Per Next Gen Stats, the Rams’ defense has surrendered league-highs in completions (8), yards (271), and touchdowns (5) on deep pass attempts through three weeks this season.

My Picks:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Sides:

  • The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 10 games.
  • The Eagles have lost each four of their last five road games.
  • The Eagles are 4-10-2 ATS when their defense allowed 20 or more points since the start of last season. They covered just three spreads when they allowed 20 points on defense.
  • The Buccaneers have covered the spread in four of their last six games.
  • Tampa Bay is 5-2-1 ATS as a home favorite in their eight games.
  • The Underdogs have won seven of the last 10 Buccaneers’ games.

Totals:

  • Each of the Eagles’ last six road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Eagles are 10-11 O/U since the start of 2023. But they are 3-9 toward the over on the road.
  • The Eagles have allowed just one red-zone TD score per game this season.
  • Tampa Bay has averaged fewer than 35 points total at home since 2023 (2-8 record toward the over).

Overall:

These two teams played twice last season. Those games scored 36 and 41 points. Totals closed at 44 and 43 respectively.

A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are both out. The Eagles have a Week 5 bye week. This obviously puts into question how much offensive firepower the Eagles have.

Three weeks into the season, Philadelphia is an underwhelming team.

Seems like we can’t get a complete game from them on offense or defense.  Jalen Hurts leads the NFL in turnover-worthy plays (8).

But the NFL is filled with imperfections. See Tampa Bay last week.

The Buccaneers fell flat on their face in Week 3, failing to show up against the Denver Broncos in their own building. Baker Mayfield was constantly under duress, and the defense couldn’t hold up with all the injuries.

But they should have reinforcements in Week 4. Tackle Luke Goedeke should return to help bolster the Bucs’ OL. But it’s still a tough task to hold up against Jalen Carter and the rest of the Eagles DL. Cody Mauch has been a turnstile at right guard. Per Next Gen Stats, Mauch has allowed 14 pressures from the right guard position this season (tied for most).

The defense might get back two lynchpin pieces between DT Vita Vea and S Antoine Winfield. They need to get healthy on defense ASAP. Currently, the Buccaneers are 30th in the NFL in missed tackles on defense.

Now, if Vea misses this game, it’s a massive boost for the Eagles and Saquon Barkley. Barkley has been the star of the Eagles offense this season, and I’d expect the team to lean on him heavily without healthy bodies among the WRs.

Per Next Gen Stats, the Buccaneers defense has allowed one full yard fewer per carry on opposing runs directed between the tackles with Vita Vea on the field (3.3) than off the field (4.3) since the start of last season.

Todd Bowles will do whatever he can to stop the run, though, as he has traditionally done as the Buccaneers head coach. However, loading the box can result in boom-or-bust results.

Per Next Gen Stats, the Buccaneers defense has aligned with more defenders than blockers in the box on a league-high 57% of plays this season.

Bowles’ defenses have emphasized stopping the run, leading the NFL in loaded box rate in three of the last four seasons. The Buccaneers’ defense has struggled to defend the run when loading the box this season, allowing 41.7% of designed runs to gain more yards than expected (fifth-highest in the NFL).

Barkley has gained a league-high 112 rushing yards on 16 carries vs loaded boxes, including two touchdowns. He has gained more yards than expected on half of his carries but has been hit behind the LOS on 12 of 16 carries. Barkley’s success rate drops from 53.2% against blocked boxes to 31.3% against loaded boxes.”

My lean on this game is not on either side…but on the under. The Eagles are going to put pressure on Mayfield. The Buccaneers quarterback has the highest pressure-to-sack rate (36%) among qualifying passers.

And we’ve seen this Eagles offense struggle when tackle Lane Johnson (concussion protocol) doesn’t play.

The splits have been glaring since 2021…

Per Next Gen Stats, the Eagles’ 7.8 yards per attempt with Lane on the field would rank 2nd in the league during that span; however, their 6.7 mark without Lane would be the 9th-lowest in the league. Additionally, the team’s pressure rate allowed jumps from 13th lowest in the league with Lane (33.5%) to the highest rate allowed without him (42.3%).”

Bowles is going to throw the blitz at Hurts – has he has done in previous matchups to solid success – to limit the Eagles passing game and scoring opportunities.

Player Props:

How to win at Player Props 101. Find the squeaky wheel and give it grease. After Mike Evans’ big Week 1, he’s taken a major backseat to Chris Godwin. After Week 3, Todd Bowles said, “We’ve got to get Mike Evans more involved.”

Take the over for Evans this week. He has one deep target this season, as Mayfield has the second-lowest average depth of throw in 2024. I don’t anticipate that “trend” to last.

In Week 3, rookie Bucky Irving took the lead in Tampa Bay’s backfield with 70 yards on nine carries (7.8 yards per carry), falling just short of the end zone. Rachaad White added 17 rushing yards on six carries while playing a massive 74% snap share.

Irving’s snaps were relatively the same as the last two weeks (32%). But two of his biggest rushes came when White was also on the field.  Despite White’s early-season struggles, the team has not reduced his snaps. However, this will likely change going forward. Todd Bowles has seen enough White rush attempts for no gain to realize Irving needs more carries.

White has finished with under 36.5 rushing yards in three straight games. The Eagles don’t stack the box against the run, but that won’t save White. He averaging 1.0 yards per carry against light boxes this season compared to Irving’s 7.0 yards per carry.

My Picks:

Carolina Panthers vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Sides:

  • The Panthers have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games.
  • The Panthers have lost 11 of their last 13 games.
  • The Bengals have won nine of their last 10 games against NFC opponents.
  • The Bengals are 11-6 ATS on the road.
  • Joe Burrow is 15-5 against the spread following a loss. Joey Covers.

Totals:

  • Eight of the Panthers’ last nine home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Ten of the Panthers’ last 14 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Bengals’ last nine games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Six of the Bengals’ last seven games as favorites has gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

The week is FILLED to brim with revenge games. One of the big headlines is Andy Dalton against the Bengals, fresh off his historic day passing in his first start for the Carolina Panthers in Week 3.

Carolina’s entire team showed new life in Week 3 both offensively and defensively. We’ve seen Dave Canales work his magic with jettisoned veterans quarterbacks before, so we can’t be too quick to brush off the Red Rifle’s performance as we project the Panthers moving forward.

Dalton was effective because he was delivering his throws in rhythm. Quick drops and get the ball out to the primary receiver.

Per Next Gen Stats, Dalton was efficient in the quick passing game, completing 20 of 27 on passes under 2.5 seconds for 211 yards and one touchdown.

I’d like to come to the table with some clever stat about how a specific part of Canales’ offense can beat the Bengals defense…but this defense has issues everywhere. I have little doubt that the Panthers will be able to move the ball either through the air or on the ground. The only saving grace I see for Cincy is that they might get some defensive tackle depth back between Sheldon Rankins and B.J. Hill.

You also need to expect Carolina to try to be aggressive, given that they know the Bengals will score points on their defense. Cincinnati has the No.1 offense in pass rate over expectation.

The Panthers finished +5% in pass rate over expectation in Dalton’s first start this season.

Last week, I was all over the Bengals-Commanders over. Two defenses that can’t stop anybody, against solid offenses. I think we get the same script here. The Bengals have been over machines based on how bad their defense has played, and the Panthers – under the Red Rifle – can now score points. Hoorah Panthers fans.

As for sides, it has to be the Bengals. Are they really going to fall to 0-4? I don’t think so. Like I said, the Panthers defense is going to have no answers for Cincy’s aerial strike boasting a well below average pass defense. And Joe Burrow after a loss, just knows how to cover the spread (75%).

Player Props:

Per Next Gen Stats, Diontae Johnson was targeted 14 times on 37 routes for eight receptions, 122 yards, and a touchdown in Week 3. He was targeted eight times in the first half alone.

Johnson was at his best on in-breaking routes on the day (6-of-8 receptions and 100 of 122 receiving yards). Johnson accounted for 56.8% of the Panthers team air yards for 109 targeted air yards – the next closest Panthers receiver finished with 43 targeted air yards. Johnson was a standout with Dalton, racking up a touchdown on eight receptions from 14 targets for a 38% target share. The Panthers receiver had four looks in the red zone, catching one for the score. He leads the NFL in red-zone targets (7) with only one TD reception. Without Adam Thielen in the fold, I expect Johnson to continue feasting on the underneath routes. Cincy is allowing the second-highest completion rate (75%) this season.

But if you have concerns about the legitimacy of Johnson’s Week 1 sample, opt for the over on Tee Higgins.

Higgins added 39 yards on three receptions from six targets (15.7% target share) in his season debut. But despite Higgins’ full-time return to the lineup, Andrei Iosivas was still very involved, with a 77% snap share.

Higgins didn’t deliver, but he had opportunities to light up the box score in his first game back from injury. He saw two red-zone targets but didn’t score. As a boom-or-bust proposition (paired with a horrible Bengals defense) Higgins will have his spiked weeks in due time (potentially this week).

My Picks:

New York Jets vs. Denver Broncos

Sides:

  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, the Jets have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games when playing with a rest advantage.
  • The Jets have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 14 games and are 2-1 ATS this season.
  • The Broncos are 4-6 ATS on the road dating back to 2023 (2-2 ATS last 4)

Totals:

  • Eleven of the Jets’ last 14 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Four of the Broncos’ last seven games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eleven of the Broncos’ last 15 games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

How can we best put this game into perspective. After all, the Broncos beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the road!

Per Next Gen Stats, the Jets have generated the 2nd-highest pressure rate in the league this season (45.6%).

When blitzing, the Jets’ pressure rate jumps to 60.7%, the highest such rate in the NFL. The Broncos offensive line allowed a 23.1% pressure rate to the Buccaneers in Week 3, their lowest this season after allowing an average 36.4% pressure rate in Week 1-2.

Given that OT Mike McGlinchey is still out with an injury, I’d bet the Jets harass Box Nix into some mistakes on the road.

Denver also struggles to stop the run (11th in rushing yards per game), playing more in favor of the Jets’ two-headed monster at running back between Breece Hall and Braelon Allen.

I see too many advantages for the Jets on both sides of the ball to have confidence backing the Broncos as touchdown-plus underdogs for a second straight week. We know that the Jets can be weak against the run (tenth in rushing yards allowed per game), but Denver’s run offense has been abysmal this season.

Javonte Williams has seen his rushing yards drop for three consecutive weeks (23, 17, 12). He lost a fumble last week and proceeded to see one more carry after that. Given his lack of production, we might see other Broncos RBs more involved going forward.

But I hate the touchdown plus the hook spread for the slow-paced Jets offense that doesn’t feel the need to blow out their competition.

Would avoid the sides entirely and opt for the under, although I’m very cool just scratching this game off my Week 4 card entirely.

Player Props:

The Broncos have the highest blitz-rate in the NFL at 45%. We’ll see if they adjust against Aaron Rodgers, but I love the rushing prop on Rodgers if they are going to be sending heat his way. Rodgers looked spry last Thursday night, going for 18 yards on three carries.

Similarly, if the Broncos send multiple defenders Rodgers’s way to generate pressure, he will get the ball out quickly. Take the over on Breece Hall’s receiving yardage props. He’s gone over 28.5 receiving yards in three straight games. Also per FantasyPoints Data, Hall owns the third-highest first-read target share (18%) this season.

Courtland Sutton has been the target leader for the Broncos this season, but he draws a brutal matchup this week against the Jets. We saw Sutton get erased by CB Joey Porter Jr. in Week 2, and I’d expect something similar to happen in Week 4 when he matches up with Sauce Gardner.

Conversely, take the over on Josh Reynolds’ 24.5 receiving yards prop. Gone over for three straight games.

My Picks:

Arizona Cardinals vs. Washington Commanders

Sides:

  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in four of their last five games.
  • Arizona is 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games.
  • The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in six of their last nine games.

Totals:

  • Eight of the Commanders’ last 11 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • When Washington doesn’t allow 20 points on defense since the start of last season, they are a perfect 5-0 toward the under; when they allowed at least 20 points on defense, they are 12-3 toward the OVER.
  • Eight of the Cardinals’ last 10 home games have gone OVER the total points line (1-1 O/U) this season averaging 42 points per game.

Overall:

I felt the total was too high at 49.5 when these lines first opened up early on Monday. Then Jayden Daniels went off on Monday Night. Yikes. It’s moved up to 50.5 to nobody’s surprise.

Daniels had his coming out party in Week 3, but he was solid for the first two weeks of the season. The Commanders offense ranks third overall in EPA/pass attempt trailing only Buffalo and New Orleans.

But like I noted last week, their run game has also been elite. They are first overall in rushing EPA and 11th in success rate.

The Commanders should find success against the Cardinals run defense that teams are rushing at the NFL’s third-highest rate (54%). Detroit imposed it’s running game at will versus Arizona in Week 3, and I’d expect Washington to deploy something similar with Brian Robinson Jr. leading the charge. Austin Ekeler is dealing with a concussion and lacerated ear (yikes). He will miss this contest.

I don’t need to cite stats to discuss how bad the Commanders’ defense is, especially against the pass. Arizona can and will do whatever they want to attack this horrible secondary, although they will be without tight end Trey McBride after he left last week’s game with a concussion.

But I’d also like to note that Washington’s run defense is also horrible, allowing the third-highest yards per rush (5.1) this season. They almost never stack the box (7% – ranked 31st) probably on account that they cannot afford to take players out of their secondary to help in run defense.

How this game goes under the total is that both teams run more than anticipated by the massive total. Neither Washington nor Arizona is overly high in pass rate over expectation, and there’s clear paths to both running games having a lot of success in this matchup.

Specifically, if Washington keeps it close on the road (suggested by the 3.5-point spread), it’s probably because they dominate time of possession with a strong rushing attack.

And Arizona’s pass defense isn’t horrible. They’ve faced the Bills, Rams, and Lions thus far and still rank just middle of the pack in passing yards allowed per game. The Cardinals showed grit (something they’ve done often under Jonathan Gannon) by shutting out the Lions in the second half of last week’s game.

So after further digging and analysis, I’ll stick with my initial take on the under at 50.5.

I’ll also opt for the Cardinals -3.5. I’m still a strong believer in Arizona as a legitimate NFC force, especially at home against the Washington Commanders defense that cannot stop anyone. This Kyler Murray-Kliff Kingsbury revenge game will go in favor of the player.

Murray has yet to face a defense as soft as the Commanders. Per Next Gen Stats, Cardinals WRs have been deemed ‘open’ at the second-lowest rate in the NFL (31.3%) through three weeks.

Player Props:

Brian Robinson has scored at least one touchdown in eight of his last nine road appearances.

Michael Wilson caught eight of his nine targets for 64 yards (27% target share) in Week 3. He’s the clear-cut No. 2 WR on the depth chart and benefits from the great matchup against the Commanders defense. With Trey McBride ruled out, Wilson’s going to see plenty of opportunities to go over his yardage prop.

My Picks:

San Francisco 49ers vs. New England Patriots

Sides:

  • The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight home games.
  • The road team has covered the spread in 12 of the 49ers’ last 15 games.
  • SF is 11-5 ATS when they score 23-plus points since the start of 2023.
  • The 49ers were the most overrated team at home in 2023 ATS, going 3-7, which was fourth worst in the NFL in 2023.
  • The 49ers have covered one spread in their last eight home games.
  • The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 10 games in September.

Totals:

  • Four of the 49ers’ last five games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Five of the last eight Patriots’ games have gone OVER the projected game total.
  • The Patriots’ defense has allowed 300-plus yards in back-to-back weeks. They had allowed one team to go for 300 yards dating back to Week 9 of last year.
  • New England is 11-9 toward the under in their last 20 games (55%).

Overall:

I cannot with good conscience back the 49ers at home ATS as 10.5-point favorites. Every single week it seems like they’ve added a new guy to their injury report. This week it’s DT Javon Hargrave who was just placed on IR.

That potential hole in the 49ers’ defensive interior plays exactly into what the Patriots want to do offensively. Run the football.

Even when the 49ers have tried to stack the box, they haven’t been great defending it. Per Next Gen Stats, the 49ers’ defense has allowed a 69.2% rushing success rate when defending opponents’ carries with 8+ defenders in the box this season, the second-highest in the NFL (13 carries, 72 yards, TD, 5.5 avg).

If the 49ers are without key offensive pieces like Deebo Samuel and George Kittle, it’s Patriots +10.5 for me. This offense is good, but it’s just not firing at the same level as last season.

Per Next Gen Stats, the 49ers offensive weapons have struggled to generate separation this season, with receivers averaging the fewest yards of separation (2.9) of a 49ers offense in the NGS era, and the 2nd-fewest in the NFL this season.

Also – maybe a sneaky spot for the over?

Again, this comes with the caveat that the 49ers get some of their weapons back. Because as much credit as this New England Patriots defense gets at times, they’ve been shredded the last two weeks. I’d expect nothing less from the 49ers are home, but it can’t hurt to have those additional weapons to get this game over the 40.5-point total.

Player Props:

We know that the Patriots want to run the football, but they cannot hand the ball off to Rhamondre Stevenson on every play. When they pass, they will most likely target the middle of the field. This has been a problem for the 49ers defense. Per Next Gen Stats, the 49ers have struggled defending targets to the middle third this season, allowing the most yards per attempt (14.2) and a 60.0% success rate (23rd in NFL).

In each season from 2018 to 2023, the 49ers ranked top 5 in yards per attempt allowed and success rate allowed against passes targeted to the middle third.

Who are the two top weapons in the Patriots passing game? Tight end Hunter Henry and slot WR Demario Douglas. As one-sided this contest seems on the surface, this might be a “bad” matchup for the 49ers defense. Again, a sneaky spot for the over.

Rhamondre Stevenson opened the year with 20-plus carries in back-to-back matchups. Last Thursday night was an outlier performance. Expect, with extra rest, Stevenson to get fed in this spot against a soft 49ers run defense that ranks 29th in EPA/rush allowed.

My Picks:

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Cleveland Browns

Sides:

  • The Raiders have covered the spread in five of their last seven games.
  • The Raiders are 9-3-1 ATS over their last 13 games.
  • The Browns have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games.
  • The Browns have won eight of their last 11 games as favorites and are 9-4 as a favorite.
  • The Browns are 6-7-1 ATS in their last 14 road appearances as underdogs.
  • Vegas is 4-1 as home underdogs.

Totals:

  • Ten of the Browns’ last 11 road games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Five of the Browns’ last seven games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Browns’ last 11 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Browns are 12-8-1 toward the over in their last 20 games.
  • Seven of the Raiders’ last 13 games have gone UNDER the total points line, 12-8 toward the under.

Overall:

It’s a matchup between two teams both heading in the wrong direction. And there’s a lot of injuries. Raider star pass rusher, Maxx Crosby, is dealing with a high ankle sprain.

Meanwhile, Browns OG Wyatt Teller is out. Tackle Jack Conklin might return, but tackle Jedrick Wills was re-injured in Week 3. Tight end David Njoku remains out.

The OL is a major issue, and it’s shown up in the worst way, with Deshaun Watson consistently under pressure. But the Raiders with a hobbled Crosby might not be able to get home as much as they’d like. Through three games, the Raiders have the fourth-worst pressure rate in the NFL.

And although Watson is a sack machine, his mobility allows him to extend plays and pick up first downs. I don’t think this a “smash” spot for the Browns offense by any means, but the Raiders defense has hardly lived up to the billing as their strength of their team after being shredded by Andy Dalton in Week 3.

The Raiders offense fell into a trap last week, being baited into running the ball (unsuccessfully) against a bad Panthers run defense. But when you stop doing what works for you offensively solely to take advantage of a defense, it’s not +EV. Especially when you’ve shown zero semblance of a rushing attack all season.

I’d presume that the Raiders get back on track with a positive PROE in Week 4.

When you pair that projection with the Browns’ third-ranked PROE, well you get the ingredients (albeit gross) to a sneaky shootout. Or at least one that goes over a total as low as 37.5 with the game being played in dome conditions. Also, QBs under pressure can lead to short fields and turnovers.

As for the sides, I’m going with the Browns on the money line. For starters, I’m not convinced that the better quarterback is favored in this game. And second, the Raiders have struggled thus far playing with expectations. Last season after Antonio Pierce took over, there were no expectations for the team. They overachieved. Now with more on their plates, it’s been tough sledding to start the year.

The Browns’ defense has the biggest advantage in this game over the Raiders’ offense, and that’s why I ultimately settled on Cleveland to come away with the road upset.

Player Props:

Deshaun Watson has passed for at least 21 pass completions in three straight games. He’s gone over this number in six of his last nine games dating back to the start of last season. Quarterbacks who have faced the Raiders this season have averaged over 21 completions per game.

My Picks:

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Sides:

  • The Chiefs have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games.
  • The Chiefs have won each of their last nine games.
  • The underdogs have covered the spread in 12 of the Chiefs’ last 16 games.
  • The Chargers are 2-1 ATS this season.

Totals:

  • Each of the Chargers’ last five games has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Fifteen of the Chargers’ last 18 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Chargers are 3-0 toward the under this season. KC is 2-1 O/U.
  • Seven of the Chiefs’ last 10 games have gone UNDER the total points line (nine of the last 12).
  • Since the start of 2023, the Chiefs have not allowed a team to score 27 points against them.
  • They are undefeated when they hold teams to 17 points or less.

Overall:

Starting rookie offensive tackle Joe Alt is out for Los Angeles. Tackle Rashawn Slater and QB Justin Herbert are questionable, with the latest reports that Herbert is expected to play. It’s not great for the Chargers to come away with a home upset against the reigning Super Bowl champions.

But I don’t think it’s so far-fetched. Greg Roman offenses have had success on the ground versus Steve Spagnuolo in previous matchups.

And so far this season, the Chargers have deployed an elite run game. Per Next Gen Stats, Los Angeles is averaging a league-best 2.3 yards before contact per carry on designed runs.

And teams KNOW they are running the ball against them.

Now for the Chiefs. Well, they could easily be 0-3. Eventually, it’s going to catch up with them.

Come to think, this Chiefs team has won by the slightest margins the last three weeks – by a toe in Week 1, by a Harrison Butker field goal in Week 2, and by a pass interference call in Week 3.

Now, great teams find a way to win. That’s been the Chiefs since last season. But for how long can they keep winning by these slim margins?

And the Chiefs offense still isn’t firing on all cylinders. Partick Mahomes’ aDOT through three weeks: 5.4. Dead last. The short, dump-off passes have worked to keep pressure off Mahomes, but the offense isn’t scoring as many points as possible.

Meanwhile, the Chargers’ defense ranks fifth overall in the fewest EPA/play allowed and top 10 in both the fewest passing and rushing yards allowed.

I’m confident that with a run-heavy script from the Chargers and Chiefs’ newly conservative offense, this game is going to FLY under the 40-point total. This isn’t your traditional AFC West shootout between Mahomes and Herbert.

As for the sides, we know the Chiefs will do everything they can to stop the run. But could they potentially OVERPLAY their hand as a result?

J.K. Dobbins is averaging 12.6 yards per carry against stacked boxes.

With the run game going and a chunk plays downfield from Herbert, I think this game is much closer than the seven-point spread suggests. Give me the Bolts.

Player Props:

Carson Steele led the Chiefs with 72 yards on 17 carries in Week 3, averaging 4.2 yards per carry, while Samaje Perine contributed 25 yards on six carries. The rookie received six carries inside the 20-yard mark, with two carries inside the 5-yard line. He has eight rushes inside the red zone this season but hasn’t scored.

Steele was at 62% snaps versus Perine’s 38%. What was encouraging for Steele in his deployment was his routes. He ran a route on 57% of the dropbacks, more than Perine.

All in all, Steele’s role was close to what we’ve seen from Isiah Pacheco in the Chiefs’ offense.

And Steele was productive in his first start as the feature guy. Per Next Gen Stats, despite not gaining a single run of 10+ yards, Steele gained positive EPA on 12 of 17 carries while finishing with positive RYOE (+4). Steele also forced three missed tackles across 18 total touches on the night. During the year, he led all qualified rushers in rushing success rate (69%).

There’s too much fear about Steele’s role evaporating after the team signed Kareem Hunt to the active roster. The last three RBs to face the Chargers have run for at least 44 yards, one being Zamir White.

My Picks:

Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills 

Sides:

  • The Bills have won nine of their last 10 games.
  • The Bills have covered the spread in four of their last five games against AFC opponents.
  • The Buffalo Bills are 13-5 as a favorite since the start of last season. But they are just 8-10 ATS as a favorite.
  • Buffalo has failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 18 games.
  • Josh Allen is 18-9-2 as an underdog ATS via BetMGM (65.5%)
  • Lamar Jackson is 32-34-0 (48.5%) ATS as a favorite.
  • Baltimore is 11-5 on the money line as home favorites. But just 6-11 ATS as home favorites.

Totals:

  • Four of the Bills’ last five games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The majority of the 2023 Ravens games that went OVER came at home (six of their last eight). But they tended to be against better offenses.
  • The Ravens are a perfect 3-0 toward the over this season.
  • The Ravens have gone OVER in six of the last eight games (seven of the previous 11).

Overall:

Give me Josh Allen on the road as an underdog. Worked back in Week 2 versus the Miami Dolphins, and I see no reason to shy away from it after Allen’s dominant Monday night performance.

Both these teams bring their best against top opponents. I expect after both teams dominated Week 3, for us to witness two Super Bowl contenders go head-to-head.

I also love the total in this spot. Baltimore’s biggest strength defensively is against the run, not dissimilar to the Jaguars a week ago. After Buffalo opened up the year sixth in raw rush rate and 18th in pass rate over expectation, they went up to +11% pass rate over expectation. Expect more of the same in Week 4 against the Ravens defense, which ranks 32nd in passing yards allowed per game.

They will put up points in this matchup and force the Ravens out of their run-heavy nature they like to use in positive game scripts. This is not a Derrick Henry game script.

Player Props:

What do we know about the Buffalo Bills defense? They don’t give up big plays. Ergo, the short-intermediate throws (especially over the middle) are ripe for the taking.

After Baltimore went full establish the run versus Dallas, you’ll see more passes with Josh Allen on the other side of this matchup.

The Ravens receivers have suppressed lines because of the severe lack of passes from Lamar Jackson in Week 3. It was the LOWEST number of attempts by the Ravens quarterback in any game in his ENTIRE career where he played the full game. Buy. The. Dip.

Especially on Flowers, who is going to be force-fed touches based on his usage in this offense. Per Next Gen Stats, Zay Flowers has traveled 608 yards in pre-snap motion this season, the 2nd-most in the NFL (LaPorta, 687).

Josh Allen was dialed in on Monday Night Football, ripping the Jaguars secondary to shreds. I’d expect nothing less against the Ravens specifically to his completions prop. I think 20.5 pass completions is too low. The Bills QB has hit this number in six of his last nine road games. With a shootout on deck (not to mention every QB the Ravens have faced has completed at least 20 passes) easy over on Allen’s completions.

My Picks:

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App