Navigate

NFL Week 4 Composite Power Ratings (2023)

by |

Each week, I compile power ratings from a bevy of respected sources across the NFL handicapping community. Power ratings are designed to identify how many points a team would be favored by against an average team on a neutral field. By calculating the difference in ratings between the two teams (and adjusting for home-field advantage), you can get a ratings-implied spread to compare to the actual spread. In the second section, I’ve done that while assuming a value of 1.5 points for home-field advantage and using the composite spread from all the sources. Additionally, I’ve provided some comments on trends and numbers that stood out to me.

Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>

Week 4 NFL Composite Power Ratings

  • With the Arizona Cardinals upsetting the Dallas Cowboys, we have a new team at the top: the Buffalo Bills. I had a feeling going into this that we’d have a new top team, but the Bills wouldn’t have been my initial guess. While the ranking of the top four or five consensus teams is aligned across most sources, there appears to be some consternation as to how good each team is. Each of the top four teams has a standard deviation above one point, indicating varying confidence levels in their ratings.
  • Oddly enough, the two teams with the most uncertainty in their ratings are the two teams featured in the 70 to 20 blowout of the Miami Dolphins over the Denver Broncos. I suspect adjusting teams after that game can be a difficult process because, while it’s just one game, it shows both teams’ potential (good and bad).

Week 4 Matchups

  • Thursday night’s matchup between division rival Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions currently has Detroit favored by 1.5 points, but these ratings suggest it should be closer to a pick em, which is what I make the game as. In a game where both teams have strengths against their opponent’s weaknesses, an even line feels more appropriate. With an outright lead of the NFC North on the line, this should be both a competitive and entertaining match (Go Pack Go).
  • Miraculously, the Jets appear to be showing some value based on these numbers. The defense must be doing a lot of work here to show that value, as Robert Saleh has said that Zach Wilson will once again be the starter on Sunday night. Kansas City’s offense was stifled in their first two games, as they were held to fewer than 21 points in both outings before posting 41 points against the league’s worst defense.
  • I’m not totally sure why we’re still seeing the Giants favored on Monday Night Football this week. Though the Seahawks clearly don’t have a great defense (27th in EPA per play allowed), the Giants have an even worse defense (30th in EPA per play allowed) and not nearly as good of an offense. After back-to-back 37-point outings, the Seahawks’ offense ranks 5th in EPA per play and looks like the team everyone expected coming into the season.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

Transform your betting strategy with Automated Line Tracking across all major markets and sports >>


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App