NFL Week 4 Early Odds, Best Bets & Trends (2023)

by Austin MacMillan |
Sep 26, 2023

Here is an early look at NFL Week 4 odds and trends.

NFL Week 4 Early Odds & Trends

Lions @ Packers - Thursday, September 28 - 8:15 PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - DET -1.5 | O/U 45

Lions trends:

Previous 20 games as a road favorite: 7-12-1 to the Under
Previous 10 games against Green Bay: 8-2 ATS
Previous 12 Divisional games: 10-2 ATS

Packers trends:

Matt LaFleur as an Underdog: 15-4 ATS
Previous 20 home games: 13-7 ATS
Previous 22 games after a win: 14-8 ATS

Best bet - GB +1.5

I think the wrong team is favored in this matchup, especially with Green Bay playing at home on short rest.

Falcons @ Jaguars (Wembley Stadium - London, UK) - Sunday, October 1 - 9:30 AM EST

Current Consensus Lines - JAC -3 | O/U 43.5

Falcons trends:

Previous 10 games as an underdog: 9-1 to the Under
Arthur Smith (Career): 16-20-1 ATS
International games: 2-0 ATS

Jaguars trends:

Trevor Lawrence (Career): 16-24 ATS
Previous 10 non-conference games: 1-9 ATS
Previous 23 games coming off a loss: 8-15 ATS

Best bet - ATL +3

The Jaguars simply have not been great as a favorite since drafting Trevor Lawrence, and Arthur Smith led the Falcons on a successful trip to London in 2021, where they won and covered as a short favorite against the Jets.

Broncos @ Bears - Sunday, October 1 - 1:00 PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - DEN -3 | O/U 46

Broncos trends:

Previous 10 games as a favorite: 1-9 ATS
Previous 10 games as a road favorite: 2-8 ATS; 8-2 to the Under
Previous 20 road games: 8-12 ATS; 13-7 to the Under

Bears trends:

Previous 25 games off a loss: 8-16-1 ATS
Previous 20 games as a home underdog: 7-13 ATS
Matt Eberflus (Career): 5-17 ATS
Justin Fields (Career): 7-17 ATS

Best bet - CHI +3

The thought process here is simple - neither team deserves to be favored in this game, I'll take the free points with the home underdog in Chicago.

Ravens @ Browns - Sunday, October 1 - 1:00 PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - CLE -2.5 | O/U 41.5

Ravens trends:

John Harbaugh as an underdog (Career): 46-30-3 ATS
Previous 20 games as a road underdog: 15-4-1 ATS
Lamar Jackson as an underdog (Career): 12-1-1 ATS

Browns trends:

Kevin Stefanski as a favorite (Career): 12-20 ATS
Previous 10 games as a home favorite: 3-7 ATS
Previous 15 games coming off a win: 4-11 ATS

Best bet - BAL +2.5

The combination of Lamar and Harbaugh has been extremely profitable to back in underdog positions over the course of their career, and I don't foresee this week being any different.

Bengals @ Titans - Sunday, October 1 - 1:00 PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - CIN -2 | O/U 44.5

Bengals trends:

Joe Burrow (Career): 33-16-1 ATS
Previous 20 road games: 14-6 ATS
Previous 20 games as a road favorite: 12-7-1 ATS
Previous 30 games in the conference: 20-11 ATS

Titans trends:

Mike Vrabel as an underdog (Career): 26-17-1 ATS
Previous 10 games as a home underdog: 7-3 ATS; 7-3 to the Over
Previous 27 games in the conference: 16-11 ATS

Best bet - TEN +2

The Bengals have simply not looked like themselves over the first 3 weeks of the season, and Mike Vrabel getting points at home is too good to pass up.

Dolphins @ Bills - Sunday, October 1 - 1:00PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - BUF -2.5 | O/U 53.5

Dolphins trends:

Tua Tagovailoa ATS: 3-0 (2023); 23-14 (Career)
Previous 14 divisional games: 10-3-1 ATS
Previous 19 games coming off a win: 13-6 ATS
Previous 10 games as a road underdog: 7-3 to the Over

Bills trends:

Sean McDermott as a favorite (Career): 35-24-4
Josh Allen (Career): 47-37-3 ATS
Previous 20 games as a home favorite: 11-7-2 ATS

Commanders @ Eagles - Sunday, October 1 - 1:00 PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - PHI -7 | O/U 44.5

Commanders trends:

Previous 12 divisional games: 4-7-1 ATS
Previous 18 games coming off a loss: 7-10-1 ATS
Previous 20 games as an underdog: 13-7 to the Under

Eagles trends:

Previous 20 games: 13-7 to the Over
Previous 20 home games: 12-7-1 ATS; 14-6 to the Over
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 12-8 to the Over

Best bet - PHI -7

Philly tends to be able to dictate the pace and put up points in these spots, while Washington has really struggled. I expect this game to look a lot like Washington's matchup last week with Buffalo.

Buccaneers @ Saints - Sunday, October 1 - 1:00 PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - NO -3 | O/U 40.5

Buccaneers trends:

Baker Mayfield (Career): 30-42-1 ATS
Todd Bowles (Career): 37-45-5 ATS
Previous 20 games as a road underdog: 8-10-2 ATS; 15-5 to the Over

Saints trends:

Dennis Allen as a favorite (Career): 4-10-2 ATS
Previous 13 divisional games: 5-7-1 ATS
Previous 10 home games: 3-6-1 ATS

Best bet - TB +3

Neither of these teams has really trended well in these spots in recent performances, but I'll take the Buccaneers in what should be a close ballgame between divisional foes, especially with the injury to Derek Carr.

Vikings @ Panthers - Sunday, October 1 - 1:00 PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - MIN -3.5 | O/U 45

Vikings trends:

Previous 27 games in conference: 9-16-2 ATS
Previous 20 games as a road favorite: 12-7-1 ATS; 12-8 to the Over
Kevin O'Connell (Career): 8-12-1 ATS

Panthers Trends:

Previous 10 games as a home underdog: 7-3 to the Under
Previous 23 non-divisional games: 7-16 ATS
Previous 23 games off a loss: 8-14-1 ATS

Best bet - CAR +3.5

The Vikings are broken right now, failing to take advantage of the Chargers gifting them an opportunity to win last week's matchup in a must-win spot at home. Carolina tends to muck these games up at home, and I like this spot for the Panthers no matter who's under center.

Rams @ Colts - Sunday, October 1 - 1:00 PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - IND -1 | O/U 45

Rams trends:

Sean McVay as an underdog: 17-11-1 ATS
Previous 11 non-conference games: 3-7-1 ATS
Matt Stafford (Career): 91-104-5 ATS
Previous 10 games as a road underdog: 3-6-1 ATS; 7-2-1 to the Under

Colts trends:

Previous 10 games as a home favorite: 3-7 ATS
Previous 20 home games: 7-13 ATS
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 7-13 ATS; 13-7 to the Under

Best bet - LAR +1

Matt Stafford has looked really healthy this year, returning to his Super Bowl form, and Sean McVay's defense has been playing with their hair on fire. Whether Anthony Richardson returns this week or not, I like this Rams team that has looked much better than most anticipated to get the win in Indy.

Steelers @ Texans - Sunday, October 1 - 1:00 PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - PIT -3 | O/U 41

Steelers trends:

Previous 27 conference games: 16-10-1 ATS
Mike Tomlin as a favorite (Career): 82-93-2 ATS
Previous 20 games as a road favorite: 7-11-2 ATS; 16-4 to the Under

Texans trends:

Previous 6 games coming off a win: 2-4 ATS
Previous 10 home games: 0-9-1 SU; 4-6 ATS
Previous 23 non-divisional games: 8-14-1 ATS

Best bet - HOU +3

Pittsburgh has tended to play down to their competition in these spots, and Houston has looked extremely competent under rookie QB CJ Stroud in their opening 3 matchups.

Raiders @ Chargers - Sunday, October 1 - 4:05 PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - LAC -5.5; O/U 47.5

Raiders trends:

Previous 13 divisional games: 8-5 ATS
Previous 20 games as a road underdog: 13-7 ATS; 12-8 to the Under
Previous 18 games off a loss: 7-11 ATS

Chargers trends:

Previous 12 divisional games: 7-5 ATS
Brandon Staley as a favorite (Career): 11-13-1 ATS
Previous 20 games against the Raiders: 13-7 to the Under

Best bet - Under 47.5

I feel like the public perception of these two teams tends to drive the game total up higher than it should be, as these teams have tended to go under in these spots.

Cardinals @ 49ers - Sunday, October 1 - 4:25 PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - SF -14 | O/U 44

Cardinals trends:

Previous 13 divisional games: 5-8 ATS
Joshua Dobbs: 3-0 ATS (2023); 4-1 ATS (Career)
Previous 20 games as a road underdog: 14-5-1 ATS

49ers trends:

Brock Purdy (Career): 9-2 ATS
Previous 29 games coming off a win: 19-10 ATS
Kyle Shanahan as a favorite (Career): 26-30-1 ATS

Best bet - ARI +14

The Cardinals have been undervalued in each of their opening three games and have covered with relative ease behind a defense and offensive line that has been playing really well. The 49ers have been rolling teams this year, but Shanahan tends to take his foot off the gas in spots like this.

Patriots @ Cowboys - Sunday, October 1 - 4:25 PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - DAL -7 | O/U 43

Patriots trends:

Mac Jones (Career): 16-20 ATS
Bill Belichick as an underdog (Career) 32-24-2 ATS
Previous 10 games as an underdog: 2-8 ATS; 7-3 to the Over

Cowboys trends:

Mike McCarthy as a favorite (Career): 102-72-4 ATS
Previous 10 games coming off a loss: 9-1 ATS
Previous 10 games as a home favorite: 7-3 ATS; 7-3 to the Over

Best bet - DAL -7

I tend to lean towards the underdog more often than not, but I actually see this as being a great bounce back game for Dallas in a spot where they have performed very well recently.

Chiefs @ Jets - Sunday, October 1 - 8:20 PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - KC -9.5; O/U 42.5

Chiefs trends:

Previous 31 games coming off a win: 14-16-1 ATS
Previous 20 games as a home favorite: 8-12 ATS; 13-7 to the Under
Mahomes as a favorite of more than 3 points (Career): 32-38-1 ATS

Jets trends:

Previous 22 games coming off a loss: 10-12 ATS
Previous 26 conference games: 12-14 ATS
Robert Saleh (Career): 16-21 ATS

Best bet - Under 42.5

Mahomes-led teams have typically not covered large spreads, but Zach Wilson is frankly unbettable at this point. I'll take the under in a spot that has tended to go under for the Chiefs, especially with the total sitting above the key number of 42.

Seahawks @ Giants - Monday, October 2 - 8:15 PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - NYG -1.5; O/U 47

Seahawks trends:

Pete Carroll as an underdog (Career): 48-31-3 ATS
Previous 28 conference games: 11-17 ATS
Previous 20 games as a road underdog: 12-8 ATS; 11-8-1 to the Over

Giants trends:

Brian Daboll (Career): 13-7 ATS
Previous 20 games coming off a loss: 12-8 ATS
Previous 25 non-divisional games: 14-11 ATS

Best bet - SEA +1.5

The Giants were very fortunate to come out on the right side of a large majority of their one-possession games in 2022, and I think we've already seen the regression monster coming for them, as they haven't looked nearly as impressive through their first three games. I'll take the Seahawks in this primetime road spot as an underdog.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:

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