NFL Week 4 First TD Scorers Picks & Predictions (2024)
Someone must score the first touchdown of the game. This article will help you increase your odds of hitting on that player based on matchups and team strengths. It will feature a selection for each game of the Sunday slate.
I will track my plays here on BettingPros. Let's get to the first touchdown scorer predictions for NFL Week 4.
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NFL Week 4 First Touchdown Scorer Picks
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons
Kyle Pitts has a great matchup against the Saints. The Saints allow the third-most yards, second-highest yards per reception and fifth-most receptions per game to tight ends. Both teams have done a good job of keeping their opponents out of the end zone early in the game. They both allow one first-quarter point per game through three games. Pitts scored in Week 1 but has not scored since. He has been targeted three times in the red zone, with his lone reception being his touchdown. Pitts should be a higher priority this week in a plus-matchup.
Pick: Kyle Pitts (+1200 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Indianapolis Colts
Justin Fields has been solid this season by limiting his turnovers. He has a great matchup this week and could open it up more to his offensive weapons. George Pickens is averaging six targets per game, which leads the team. A big part of this bet could be the Steelers' defense. They have allowed 26 points this season, with 10 in a game being their most. The Steelers should make life hard for Anthony Richardson, which gives Pickens a better chance at being the first scorer. He is as low as +750 at other sportsbooks and offers plenty of value at this number.
Pick: George Pickens (+1200 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers
Aaron Jones is returning to Green Bay for the first time as a Viking and has a good matchup. The Packers allow 105.7 rushing yards per game and 47.67 receiving yards per game to running backs. Saquon Barkley diced up this defense in Week 1 and caught two balls for 23 yards and a score. Jones could have some success in the passing game early. The Packers lead the league in interceptions and the Vikings might utilize Aaron Jones early. Jones is averaging 4.7 targets and 5.4 rushing yards per attempt. He is a good player to target in a revenge game against his former team.
Pick: Aaron Jones (+800 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans
There is a lot of usage going to Travis Etienne in Jacksonville. He has 10 carries in the red zone, resulting in 23 yards and two touchdowns. Etienne also has two targets but only one catch for three yards. He averages 70% of snaps and 4.3 targets per game. He will be involved a lot early and might get overlooked. The Texans have allowed more points per first quarter per game than the Jaguars. They also do not score much in the first quarter. The Jaguars have a better chance than it seems to score first. You can get their best player at a great number.
Pick: Travis Etienne Jr. (+850 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Los Angeles Rams @ Chicago Bears
The Rams have not played well defensively this season. They are allowing the second-most points per game (30.3) this season and are getting torched through the air. They allow the fourth-most passing yards (248.7) per game and only average 1.3 sacks per game. Caleb Williams should have plenty of time to throw in the pocket. Keenan Allen has not played since Week 1 but has been limited at practice, which is a good sign he will play. He was targeted 11 times in Week 1 and twice in the red zone. Grab him at a good price this week in a positive matchup.
Pick: Keenan Allen (+1400 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Bucky Irving has come on in the backfield for Tampa Bay but may not play this week. He was downgraded to out on Thursday after he was limited on Wednesday. He is dealing with a hamstring injury and is at risk of missing this week. White averages 72% of snaps and could see more if Irving is out. White has had fewer rushing attempts each week since the season started, but his work in the passing game has remained the same. The Eagles have allowed 134.7 rushing yards per game. There should be room to run for the inefficient White. The volume should be there, especially if Irving misses the game.
Pick: Rachaad White (+700 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Cincinnati Bengals @ Carolina Panthers
Tee Higgins had three catches for 39 yards on six targets in his first game of the season in Week 3. He was targeted twice in the red zone but could not haul one in. Higgins also played 90% of the snaps and was not limited at all. He should be open against a Panthers defense that has allowed the most points per game this season. The Bengals should target Higgins near the end zone, which makes him a quality candidate to score first.
Pick: Tee Higgins (+1100 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Denver Broncos @ New York Jets
Allen Lazard has been a big piece of the Jets' offense, averaging 5.3 targets per game on 88% of snaps. The matchup with the Broncos could be a good one for Lazard. Patrick Surtain II should shadow Garrett Wilson, which means Lazard has a favorable matchup. Lazard should not have higher odds than Mike Williams based on usage, so this is a solid number for Lazard. The Jets likely lean on Breece Hall to start the game, but Aaron Rodgers will look for his buddy near the end zone.
Pick: Allen Lazard (+1400 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Washington Commanders @ Arizona Cardinals
Marvin Harrison Jr. is starting to get acclimated to the professional game. He has 194 yards and three touchdowns over the past two weeks and finds himself in another positive matchup. The Commanders have allowed the most receiving scores to the wide receiver position. He is playing 88% of snaps and averages 7.3 targets per game. Trey McBride, who averages seven targets per game, is in concussion protocol and could miss the game. Harrison will be used a lot this week and is a smash play at this number.
Pick: Marvin Harrison Jr. (+950 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
New England Patriots @ San Francisco 49ers
Jordan Mason is averaging 79% of snaps this season and has 67 carries this season, the most in the league. He has 16 attempts inside the 20 and averages 3.6 yards per carry. The Patriots have allowed one rushing touchdown per game. Mason will likely find the end zone in this game. It is the chalky play, but likely the right one in this matchup, especially if George Kittle and Deebo Samuel miss the game.
Pick: Jordan Mason (+390 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Cleveland Browns @ Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders have not been good against the run this season. The defense has allowed 152.7 rushing yards per game and has allowed at least one rushing touchdown per game. Jerome Ford played 79% of snaps last week and received 14 opportunities last week. I would target the Raiders' defense over the Browns, and this is the best matchup. Both of these offenses are unreliable, but the Browns can lean on Ford if they can control the line of scrimmage. Ford is a solid play at this number.
Pick: Jerome Ford (+900 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers
Rashee Rice is averaging 78% of snaps and is receiving 9.7 targets per game. He caught 12 his of 14 targets last week and has become Patrick Mahomes' favorite target. The Chargers' defense is beat up and Mahomes could have more time in the pocket this week if Joey Bosa does not play. He has caught both of his red zone targets this season, including one for a TD. Expect Rice to be featured early and often without Isiah Pacheco in the lineup.