NFL Week 4 First Touchdown Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions (2022)
Someone must score the first TD of the game, and this article will help you increase your odds of hitting on that player based on matchups and team strengths. It will feature a selection for each game of the Sunday slate.
Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>
Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints
Mark Ingram II
Odds: +1000 via Caesars Sportsbook
The Vikings have allowed the second most rushing touchdowns in the league. They have also allowed five touchdowns (62.5%) on eight attempts by opponents in the red zone. The Saints have scored on six of nine (66.7%) attempts to the red zone. Ingram is the most used running back inside the 20 for the Saints. He has three total touches compared to Kamara’s one touch. This game will also occur in London, so both teams will have to travel across the pond. Ingram has the most value based on the red zone usage.
Cleveland Browns @ Atlanta Falcons
David Njoku
Odds: +1300 via FanDuel Sportsbook
David Njoku caught a TD last week against the Steelers, but his teammate, Amari Cooper, hauled in the first one. Cooper had 11 targets, and Njoku had 10. He is being looked at more by Brissett, who has targeted tight ends frequently throughout his career. The Browns use their running backs often in the red zone, but the Falcons have allowed seven passing TDs and only two rushing TDs. They also allowed an early TD last week to Will Dissly of the Seahawks. It may not be surprising if the Browns throw the ball to Njoku early and often.
Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson
Odds: +1000 via FanDuel Sportsbook
The total for this game is 51, so the oddsmakers expect some TDs. Buffalo has a lot of weapons that can find pay dirt, and Josh Allen spreads the ball around. Baltimore has a few players with big-play potential; anyone can score first for either side. The most value lies on Baltimore’s side, and Jackson is the most likely to find the end zone. Buffalo has given up three rushing touchdowns and has allowed teams to score at an 83.3% rate in the red zone. Jackson leads Baltimore in touches in the red zone with four, and he may have to improvise more against this stellar defense.
Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys
Tony Pollard
Odds: +850 via DraftKings Sportsbook
The Commanders are bad against the run and the pass. Cooper Rush is still the quarterback for the Cowboys. For those reasons, Tony Pollard is the best value bet to score first. He has averaged 11.5 yards per carry this season and received ten total targets. The Commanders have allowed 5.4 yards per carry and 12.5 yards per completion. Pollard will receive carries in the run game and targets through the air, so he is the best bet.
Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions
T.J. Hockenson
Odds: +850 via DraftKings Sportsbook
The Lions are fighting an injury bug on offense. D’Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown are both questionable for this game, and some targets might be up for grabs. The Seahawks are not good defensively and have allowed 19 first-quarter points this season. The Lions have allowed none despite allowing the most points overall. On offense, the Lions have scored the most points in the first quarter with 26, so they will strike first. The Seahawks have allowed 12.6 yards per completion this season and have not been good against the run either. The Lions should try and get their big tight end involved early in the absence of their premier players.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Houston Texans
Josh Palmer
Odds: +850 via Caesars Sportsbook
In the first quarter this season, the Chargers have allowed just three points, and the Texans have allowed 16 points. The Texans are also the worst team against the run, allowing a league-worst 202.3 yards per game. Lucky for them, the Chargers average 59 rushing yards per game, which is also the worst in the league. Even though they could run more in this game, their pass-happy offense will be on show. Keenan Allen should return from injury, but Josh Palmer is the bet to make. Allen could be on a limited snap count, which helps Palmer’s chances. Not to mention, Palmer leads the Chargers in red zone targets.
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
Robert Woods
Odds: +1300 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Robert Woods is the leading receiver for the Titans, with nine catches for 137 yards. He received 19% of the team’s targets in the first three games and 33% last week. The Colts only allow 2.6 yards per rush attempt and are more susceptible to the pass. The Titans have also scored 21 points in the first quarter this season compared to 10 for the Colts. Look for them to get in the end zone first through the air. The Titans allow 5.8 yards per rush attempt, so Jonathan Taylor has a solid chance to make an explosive run but priced at +380, he does not offer the same value as Woods.
Chicago Bears @ New York Giants
Justin Fields
Odds: +800 via Caesars Sportsbook
Justin Fields and Khalil Herbert lead the Bears in red zone touches. They both have eight attempts, but Herbert has two more TDs than Fields. He probably has more because he has five rush attempts inside the five compared to Fields’ two carries. If David Montgomery misses this game, which is the expectation, the Bears’ game plan may feature Fields’ ability to use his legs. The Giants allow 5.3 yards per rush attempt, and the Bears want to run the ball. Fields has a great chance of scoring the first TD and has better odds than Herbert.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Philadelphia Eagles
DeVonta Smith
Odds: +900 via FanDuel Sportsbook
The Jaguars are 6.5-point underdogs on the road this week. They look much better than last season but are walking into a monsoon of an offense. The Eagles are 3-0 and have lit it up through the air. They average 13.5 yards per completion, and the Jaguars allow 11.7 yards per completion. Jalen Hurts targeted Smith 34% of the time last week, which was more than he targeted A.J. Brown. The player with the higher target share has better odds, which makes him the best bet.
New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Breece Hall
Odds: +1100 via FanDuel Sportsbook
Zach Wilson will make his first start of the season on the road in Pittsburgh. Joe Flacco attempted 155 passes in the first three games of the season. They are not likely to throw that many times with Wilson, but they could. Breece Hall and Michael Carter have 13 catches each this season, but Hall narrowly has the higher target percentage. He is also the more explosive of the two. He is the better value against a Steelers’ defense without T.J. Watt.
Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers
DJ Moore
Odds: +750 via Caesars Sportsbook
DJ Moore is currently the highest-listed Panther for this prop because Christian McCaffrey has missed multiple practices this week. The Cardinals have allowed the most points in the first quarter this season at 31. On offense, they have not scored a point in the first quarter. The Panthers are more likely to be the side to strike first, and now it is just a matter of picking the right player. Moore has a 22.2% target share this year with Baker Mayfield, which leads the team. His chances of finding the end zone are the best, especially if McCaffrey does not play.
New England Patriots @ Green Bay Packers
Rhamondre Stevenson
Odds: +1700 via DraftKings Sportsbook
Brian Hoyer will lead the Patriots into Lambeau Field because Mac Jones is doubtful due to a high ankle sprain. The offense will probably look similar, but they may run the ball slightly more with Hoyer. The Packers give up 113.3 yards per game and 4.9 yards per carry. Although the Patriots are 9.5-point underdogs, they have a good shot at getting a TD early in the game. The Packers have started slowly in each game this season, and at that price, Stevenson is a great value bet.
Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders
Darren Waller
Odds: +1200 via DraftKings Sportsbook
The Raiders may be without Hunter Renfrow again this week. Last week, Mack Hollins stepped up and had a big day. Hollins had a 22% target share, which tied Davante Adams. Meanwhile, Darren Waller saw 11% of the targets, his lowest split this season. In Week 1, the Seahawks had two TDs to the tight end position against the Broncos. The Broncos have also not allowed a rushing touchdown this season. Waller will likely see more targets this week and is an undervalued player at this price.
Prop Bet Analyzer: View advanced analysis and bet ratings for every prop bet >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.