NFL Week 4 First Touchdown Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)
Someone must score the first touchdown of the game, and this article will help you increase your odds of hitting on that player based on matchups and team strengths. It will feature a selection for each game of the Sunday slate.
I will track my plays here on BettingPros. Let’s get to the first touchdown scorer predictions for NFL Week 4!
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NFL Week 4 First Touchdown Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions
2023 total: Down 1 unit
Atlanta Falcons @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Odds: +2200 via DraftKings Sportsbook
Neither offense performed well last week, but the Jaguars should turn things around this week. The Falcon’s defense has been great against the pass thus far but gives up yards to a decent rushing attack. They allow 117.7 rushing yards per game at 4.2 yards per attempt. Travis Etienne has been on the field much more than Bigsby this season (74% to 17%), but Bigsby has gotten the carries near the goal line. He has scored twice this season on just nine attempts. The Jaguars could have trouble throwing the ball efficiently against this defense and may lean on their rushing attack. Bigsby offers a lot of value based on the matchup.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Houston Texans
Odds: +1600 via FanDuel Sportsbook
The Steelers have not been good on defense this season. They allow 235.3 passing yards per game and 151.7 rushing yards per game. The one bright spot is they only allow opponents to convert 35.7% of the time. The Texans are the fourth-best league-wide at converting third downs at 47.5%. C.J. Stroud has been playing well and is showing chemistry with Dell. Tank Dell has been targeted 17 times in the past two weeks after only playing 48% of snaps in week one. He is getting too many opportunities and has too good of a matchup to pass at this number. Dell is definitely worth an anytime TD bet and a solid first TD bet.
Los Angeles Rams @ Indianapolis Colts
Odds: +1200 via DraftKings Sportsbook
Matthew Stafford has been pretty good this year outside of his turnovers. The offense ranks eighth with 387.3 yards per game while passing on 63.94% of plays. They want to throw the ball and will continue to throw against the Colts’ defense. They allow 250.7 passing yards per game. Tutu Atwell has been one of Stafford’s most reliable targets this season, with eight, nine, and nine targets in the first three games. He has turned those 26 targets into 17 receptions for 246 yards and a TD. He is undervalued heading into this week’s matchup and is a good wager.
Minnesota Vikings @ Carolina Panthers
Odds: +1200 via DraftKings Sportsbook
The Vikings’ offense has been one-dimensional, and the defense has allowed 27.3 points per game. They have not won a game and have started slowly in each. They have not scored a point in the first quarter this season. The Panthers are also winless but have increased their offensive production each week. Bryce Young will be back under center this week after an ankle injury kept him out of action last week. The Vikings allow 261.7 passing yards per game and struggle to cover receivers. Thielen has looked great thus far and is playing against his former team. Buy the revenge perspective and take Thielen to score first against a good matchup.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints
Odds: +850 via DraftKings Sportsbook
The Buccaneers did not look great against the Eagles on Monday night and struggled on offense. They face another tough defense this week. The Saints allow the sixth-fewest points (16.7) per game and get off the field on third downs. The Buccaneers allow teams to convert 51.2% of third downs. Derek Carr has not practiced this week and is trending toward missing the game, which means Jameis Winston will get the start. The Saints will likely run the ball and take deep shots to play into Winston’s strengths. The Buccaneers have struggled against the deep ball this season, and Olave is a major deep ball threat. He averages 13.7 yards per reception and could benefit from Winston’s deep ball accuracy.
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles
Odds: +600 via DraftKings Sportsbook
Swift has been explosive when he touches the ball. He is averaging 6.8 yards per attempt and runs behind one of the best offensive lines in the league. The Commanders have not stopped the run this season. They have given up 128.7 rushing yards per game. They are currently eight-point underdogs. The Eagles should run the ball early and often, and Swift can break a long run on any touch. Swift and Kenneth Gainwell are practically splitting snaps, but Swift is much more explosive. Swift is behind Hurts in this prop market, so take advantage of the additional value from the “tush push.â€
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills
Odds: +900 via FanDuel Sportsbook
Stefon Diggs has been a target monster for the Bills through the first three games. He has 32 total targets and has converted them into 25 receptions, 279 yards, and one TD. Josh Allen is throwing the ball on time and accurately, and Diggs is due for a big game. The Dolphins’ offense has been electric, but their defense has been lacking. They allow 23.7 points per game and 385.3 total yards per game. The Bills are 2.5-point favorites, and the Dolphins just scored 70 points. Diggs is undervalued at this number and should be involved early.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans
Odds: +500 via FanDuel Sportsbook
These offenses are ranked 30th and 31st in total yards per game and average about 15 points per game apiece. The Bengals struggle when defending the run. They give up 5.1 yards per rush attempt. The total is at 40.5, which means the opportunities for scoring may be fewer than usual. Henry has a great chance to get things going this week. His downside in this game comes into play if the Titans have to play catch-up, but since this is a first TD prop, it only plays into his upside.
Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns
Odds: +1400 via DraftKings Sportsbook
The defense may end up coming away with the first score in this game, but there is too much variance to place a bet on that wager. These defenses have been stifling this season. The Ravens allow 18.3 points per game, while the Browns allow 10.7, which is the lowest in the league. It is an opportunity to bet on a playmaker for the Browns. Elijah Moore is averaging 8.3 targets per game and is a reliable target for Deshaun Watson. With no specific matchup that presents value, let’s take a receiver that gets consistent looks.
Denver Broncos @ Chicago Bears
Odds: +1000 via DraftKings Sportsbook
Even though the Broncos allowed 70 points last week, they have a great matchup this week. The Bears are the worst team in the league, and the stats back that up. They allow 285.7 passing yards per game. Russell Wilson and Courtland Sutton started to connect in the second half of the game last week. Sutton posted his best stat line of the season with eight receptions on 11 targets and 91 yards with a TD. He is solid value this week.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers
Odds: +1400 via DraftKings Sportsbook
Jakobi Meyers did not miss a beat after missing a game due to a concussion. He got targeted 12 times and turned them into seven receptions for 85 yards. He also has five targets in the red zone, which ties Davante Adams for the lead on the team. They want to get him the football, and he should receive a lot of targets again this week. This game could be a shootout, and this wager may depend upon who gets the first kickoff. Neither team has a great defense, but the Chargers are dead last in passing yards allowed per game with 337. Multiple players could score here, but Meyers offers the best value based on targets.
New England Patriots @ Dallas Cowboys
Odds: +1400 via DraftKings Sportsbook
Elliott is returning to Dallas for the first time as an opposing player. He averages 34% of snaps but has been efficient. He ran for 80 yards on 16 attempts last week in a rainy game against the Jets. The Cowboy’s one flaw on defense is the amount of rushing yards they allow. They have given up 131.3 rushing yards per game this season. The Cardinals just ran for 222 yards against them. They also looked like a different defense without Trevon Diggs on the field. The Patriots should pound the ball early to open up the passing attack. Elliott is in play to score a revenge TD.
Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers
Odds: +1800 via DraftKings Sportsbook
The 49ers look like the best team in the league, and the Cardinals are not the best defensive team. It should be someone on the 49ers scoring first based on that alone. The Cardinals are not good at defending the rush, so it will probably be Christian McCaffrey. He is too low for this market, though. Brock Purdy has already run for a TD this season and can play with his legs. Many players draw lots of attention from defenders, which could leave wide-open lanes for Purdy if everyone is covered. Let’s hope he uses his legs to get the early TD.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:
- MLB Best Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
- MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
- College Football Week 5 Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
- NFL Betting Primer: Top Picks & Player Prop Bets for Every Game (Week 4)
- NFL Week 4 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz’s Favorites (2023)
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