NFL Week 4 Line Movement Analysis (2023)

by Charles Cash |
Sep 28, 2023

Tracking how lines move throughout an NFL week can provide meaningful information to bettors. In general, lines become more sharp throughout the week as the sportsbook collects more information. Each game will have its reasoning for movement (e.g., injuries, betting activity, weather, etc.) and varying degrees of impact on the line.

For example, the Chiefs moved from 6.5 to four-point favorites after the news that Travis Kelce injured his knee in practice two days before the 2023 opening night game. Meanwhile, Cooper Kupp was ruled out against Seattle, and the line stayed within a point of the Seahawks opening line of -5.5.

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NFL Week 3 Line Movement Analysis

The table below is intended to summarize the home team spread and total movement for this weekâ€™s games and help provide context for any significant movements.

		Home Spread			Total
Away	Home	Open	Current	Diff	Open	Current	Diff
MIA	BUF	-2.5	-2.5	0	53.5	54	0.5
MIN	CAR	3.5	4.5	1	45	46.5	1.5
DEN	CHI	3	3	0	45	46.5	1.5
BAL	CLE	-2.5	-3	-0.5	41	40.5	-0.5
NE	DAL	-7	-6.5	0.5	43	43.5	0.5
DET	GB	2	2.5	0.5	45	45	0
PIT	HOU	3.5	2.5	-1	41	42.5	1.5
LAR	IND	-1	1	2	45	46	1
ATL	JAX	-3	-3	0	44	43	-1
LV	LAC	-4.5	-5.5	-1	50.5	48.5	-2
TB	NO	-3	-3.5	-0.5	40.5	39.5	-1
SEA	NYG	-1.5	1	2.5	46.5	47	0.5
KC	NYJ	9	9	0	42.5	41.5	-1
WAS	PHI	-7	-9	-2	44.5	43	-1.5
ARI	SF	-14	-14	0	43.5	44	0.5
CIN	TEN	-1	2.5	3.5	42.5	40.5	-2

(Lines per DraftKings Sportsbook | Line movement via @betstamp | Open odds as of Monday morning | Current odds as of Thursday evening)

NFL Week 4 Spread Movement Analysis

Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans: -1 ?' +2.5

The 3.5-point movement in favor of the Bengals can mainly be attributed to the health of Joe Burrow. Burrow was questionable to suit up in the Monday Night game against the Rams. He ultimately played and was able to help get the Bengals the first win of the season. While he likely is not 100%, the Bengals were able to gut out the win and now face a Titans team that was blown out 27-3 in Cleveland.

Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants: -1.5 ?' +1

The Seahawks are averaging 29.0 points per game through three weeks, but the defense is also giving up almost an identical 29.3 ppg. The Giants are still unsure if they will get Saquon Barkley back this week, so that will be something to monitor as Monday Night nears. The Giants only had 29 rushing yards as a team without Saquon last week.

NFL Week 4 Total Movement Analysis

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles: 44.5 ?' 43

This may be a reaction to how poorly the Commanders looked at home against a legit defense. The spread also moved two points in favor of the Eagles. The Commanders were able to start 2-0 after two narrow wins over the Cardinals and Broncos. They stepped up in class and were blown out 37-3 in Week 3. The total movement does not expect much from the Commanders offense this week.

Denver Broncos at Chicago Bears: 45.0 ?' 46.5

The total increase speaks to how poorly these two defenses are versus any actual offensive reasons through three weeks of the season. Both teams come off massive blowouts where the Broncos gave up 70 points and the Bears defense likely would have matched that number had the Chiefs kept their starters in. In terms of actual statistics, the Bears defense has allowed 35.3 ppg (second worst in NFL) and the Broncos have allowed 40.7 (worst in the NFL).

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