NFL Week 4 Line Movement Analysis (2024)
Tracking how lines move throughout an NFL week can provide meaningful information to bettors. In general, lines become more sharp throughout the week as the sportsbook collects more information.
Each game will have its reasoning for movement (e.g., injuries, betting activity, weather, etc.) and varying degrees of impact on the line.
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NFL Week 4 Line Movement Analysis
The table below is intended to summarize the home team spread and total movement for this week’s games to help provide context for any significant movements.
| Home Spread | Total | ||||||
| Away | Home | Open | Current | Diff | Open | Current | Diff |
| PHI | TB | 2.5 | 1.5 | -1 | 46.5 | 43 | -3.5 |
| JAX | HOU | -4.5 | -5.5 | 1 | 45 | 45.5 | 0.5 |
| CIN | CAR | 5.5 | 4.5 | -1 | 45.5 | 47 | 1.5 |
| DEN | NYJ | -8 | -7.5 | -0.5 | 38.5 | 39.5 | 1 |
| PIT | IND | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 39.5 | 40 | 0.5 |
| LAR | CHI | -1.5 | -3 | 1.5 | 40.5 | 41 | 0.5 |
| MIN | GB | -3 | -2.5 | -0.5 | 43.5 | 43.5 | 0 |
| NO | ATL | -1.5 | -1.5 | 0 | 45.5 | 42 | -3.5 |
| NE | SF | -10.5 | -10 | -0.5 | 40 | 40.5 | 0.5 |
| WAS | AZ | -4 | -3.5 | -0.5 | 50.5 | 50 | -0.5 |
| CLE | LV | 1.5 | -1.5 | 3 | 39 | 37 | -2 |
| KC | LAC | 7 | 7 | 0 | 40 | 40 | 0 |
| BUF | BAL | -2 | -2 | 0 | 46 | 46.5 | 0.5 |
| TEN | MIA | 1 | -1 | 2 | 37.5 | 36.5 | -1 |
| SEA | DET | -4.5 | -3.5 | -1 | 48 | 46 | -2 |
(Lines per DraftKings Sportsbook | Line movement via EV Analytics | Open odds as of Monday morning | Current odds as of Thursday evening)
NFL Week 4 Spread Movement Analysis
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans: -4.5 ?' -5.5
Though it may look like this line only moved one point since opening at -4.5, there was much more movement than that, as the Texans were bet as high as -7 before Jaguars bettors weighed in at that key number. There is no doubt that Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence has struggled (his 43 Total QBR ranks 25th) as he is amid the second eight-start losing streak of his career. Despite the struggles, underdog backers clearly took a stance that a touchdown is too much to lay in this matchup, especially since Houston is 0-4 ATS in its last four games dating back to last season.
Cleveland Browns at Las Vegas Raiders: +1.5 ?' -1.5
This game is one of two on the Week 4 slate whose line has jumped the fence. Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce was boisterous after last week’s embarrassing loss to the Panthers, implying that he saw certain players making “business decisions†and taking plays off while not helping the betterment of the team. Perhaps the line starting moving back in Las Vegas’s favor when Pierce announced he was sticking with Gardner Minshew at quarterback. Either way, Cleveland is hard to trust after failing to score more than 18 points in any of the first three games of a season for the first time since 2010. In addition, Pierce is 8-3-1 ATS since taking over the Raiders coaching job in Week 9 last year, which is the best ATS mark of any head coach in that span.
NFL Week 4 Total Movement Analysis
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 46.5 ?' 43
The Eagles-Buccaneers total has plummeted from an opening number of 46.5. The only time there was slight buyback on the Over was when the total hit 44.5 and briefly rebounded to 45. From there, it has been a steady decline to where the number is currently at 43. Some of the line movement likely has to do with Philadelphia’s impressive defensive performance last week, holding a Saints team that scored 91 points in Weeks 1 and 2 to just 12 points last week. The other cause for the line movement could be the weather, as there is a 70% chance of thunderstorms in the Tampa area on Sunday afternoon.
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons: 45.5 ?' 42
This is the second total of the week that is down 3.5 points from its opening number. However, we know this line movement is not weather-related as this game is played inside a dome.
The Saints offense came back to reality, managing 219 total yards and 12 points last week after averaging 405.5 yards per game and 45.5 points per game during their 2-0 start. Meanwhile, Atlanta’s offense managed 14 points on six drives in the first half against Kansas City last week, and was then held to three points on four drives and 5.7 yards per attempt in the second half.
This line got all the way as low as 41.5 before rebounding slightly by a half-point to 42. The line movement supports the trend that the Under is 4-1 in Atlanta’s last five home games, and two of the previous three meetings between these teams had 39 or fewer points scored.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.