Navigate

NFL Week 4 Line Report: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

by |

Welcome back to my Week 4 NFL Line Report at BettingPros, featuring my custom cost-per-point betting analysis. If you're unfamiliar with the concept, I encourage you to check out my Week 1 introduction. Long story short, NFL prices aren't standardized, so not all points are priced equally. I'm going to run valuations on the DraftKings betting board each week and chart prices to identify which scenarios are advantageous to bet the ML versus ATS (and vice-versa).

Overnight Line Moves And Notes Since the Open

DET moved from (-1) to (-1.5) at GB

For the first time in as long I can remember, the Lions are favored at Lambeau. However, I’m a little surprised that we moved off the single point open with injury news trending in the right direction for Green Bay. Both Aaron Jones and Christian Watson are on track to play after logging limited practices.

MIA moved from (+2.5) to (+3) at BUF 

Imagine outscoring an opponent by 50 in a regular season NFL game and winding up as an underdog 72 hours later. The line movement feels like a statement on the Bills’ defense after a dominant performance, but the Jets, Raiders, and Commanders aren’t in the same stratosphere in regard to explosivity as the Dolphins. I’m not projecting another 70-point blowup from Miami, but there’s no way I’m betting against a healthy battery of Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill right now.

LAR moved from (+1.5) to (+1) at IND

This particular line has swung back and forth more than once as the market tries to figure out what to expect going forward from both teams. The Rams looked human for the first time on offense, and bettors are putting chips down on positive regression for Matt Stafford. Well, that or they’re assuming Colt rookie QB Anthony Richardson won’t be able to suit up. Richardson is currently still in concussion protocol but practiced in full on Wednesday.

TB moved from (+3.5) to (+3) at NO

Tampa Bay buckled at the first sign of true defensive competition last week, but that wasn’t enough to stop the flow of money coming in against the Saints. I think top-down New Orleans is the more well-rounded team, but now having to turn to backup Jameis Winston makes them entirely too unpredictable to back.

LV moved from (+6) to (+5) at LAC

If you’ve been following this weekly piece (thanks!), you know I’m fully transparent and unabashed about admitting uncertainty. Ask me why Las Vegas is getting love from sharps, and prepare to see a grown man staring blankly back at you, mouth hanging open. The Raiders are T-31st in defensive EPA/Play against a Chargers team with a compelling case to be a top-three NFL offense. LEAN: I like LAC by a touchdown, so there’s no need to rush a move if you’re unafraid to buck CLV. I’m going to monitor the price and trail it to see if it continues to fall before placing my bet.

NE moved from (+7) to (+6.5) at DAL

Funny the difference a week makes. The Patriots caused panic throughout the Northeast, starting off with two straight losses before beating up the hapless Jets. Meanwhile, the Cowboys lost a Pro Bowl defender to injury right before their game with winless Arizona and eventually choked away a shocker. My gut says the Patriots aren’t as good as they looked against the Jets, and the Cowboys aren’t nearly as bad as they looked versus the Cardinals. I’m still on the fence but will be watching closely; a move to (+6) or beyond could trigger action from me.

NFL Week 4 Cost Analysis-Based Expected Line Moves

ARI should move to (+14.5) from (+14) at SF

It can be difficult to push an NFL spread beyond two touchdowns, but at +$60 per point, something’s got to give. For reference, anything above $40 is an objective outlier relative to the field, so $60 borders on ridiculous. (For those of you keeping score at home, the (-950) juice on the 49ers’ money line carries an implied probability of 90.5%). The price itself dissuades bettors from placing action, even for recreational bettors that parlay, so this could easily collapse. The Cardinals have played opponents tough, but it’s safe to say they’ve gotten a lot from a little. I don’t usually lay two TDs, but this would be one of the spots worth considering.

DET should move to (-1) from (-1.5) at GB

I don’t have a strong lean on the game itself, with the Packers’ determinative players’ status still up in the air. That said, I do think we’re heading back to a single-point spread. At $2 per point, it’s tough to see any fish biting ATS, so if you happen to like GB, grab them now at (+1.5).

NFL Week 4 Favorites with Value on the Moneyline versus ATS

  • BUF (-148) vs MIA
  • NYG (-115) vs SEA
  • IND (-118) vs LAR
  • DET (-108) at GB
  • CIN (-112) at TEN

NFL Week 4 Underdogs with Value ATS vs. On the Moneyline

  • MIA (+3) at BUF
  • SEA (+1) at NYG
  • LAR (+1) at IND
  • GB (+1.5) vs DET
  • TEN (+2.5) vs CIN

These two types of determinations are mostly made around EV, but that doesn’t make them any less important. If you’re expecting to cover a game capped by the Vegas books to be within a few points, take the hint on variance, and don’t be greedy. After yet another nail-biter in Week 3, just over 11% of all games played this NFL season have been decided by a single point. If you’re betting the favorite, don’t pay a premium to cover. Conversely, with underdogs (even those you think can win outright), always do the cost analysis to ensure value. Especially in the case of Tennesee, where the points are being offered at an absurd $1.60 each, it’s silly not to accept a deal that sweet.

Week 4 BET: KC (-9.5) at NYJ  to win 1 unit. Record YTD (2-0, +2.0u)

No surprises here whatsoever, except that maybe this one opened in the single digits. The Chiefs are obviously an order of magnitude better than the Jets on offense, but it’s the defense making the difference for me. With Chris Jones back and playing like a man on a mission, the Chiefs are inside my top five defensive units right now. Frankly, I’d be shocked to see NYJ in the endzone once on Sunday. KC just hung 41 on the Bears, and while the vaunted Jets defense won’t give up 40, I think just half of that will make for an easy cover.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App