NFL Week 4 Monday Night Football Player Props Picks & Predictions (Rams vs. 49ers)
The San Francisco 49ers host the Los Angeles Rams in an NFC West battle on Monday night. How will the sides fare in this rematch of last year’s NFC Championship Game?
Below, we break down our favorite player props for the contest.
Prop Bet Analyzer: View top rated props and historical prop performance by player >>
Jeff Wilson Jr. OVER 55.5 Rushing Yards (-113 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
The 49ers average 151 rushing yards per game this season, seventh-most in the NFL. Veteran running back Jeff Wilson Jr. has 39 of San Francisco’s 101 rushing attempts this season, including 30 of the 64 team carries the past two weeks. That’s come as attrition has struck the backfield hard already in 2022, with injuries to Elijah Mitchell and Tyrion Davis-Price, leaving Wilson as the lone trusted healthy RB.
Following the Mitchell injury in Week 1, Wilson has rushed for 84 and 75 yards in his respective games as the de facto starter. Though the Rams have been stingy against the run, allowing just 93.7 yards per game on the ground this season, that’s arguably been more game-script related than certifiable proof that the Rams are elite at stopping the run.
The 49ers’ offense is built to run the ball. As favorites in this Monday night contest, I don’t expect them to shy away from the strength of a ground-and-pound attack. Wilson’s averaging 4.6 yards per carry this season and should expect something near the 15 attempts per game he’s averaged since becoming the starter. That should be plenty to clear the line at DraftKings (54.5 yards, -125) or FanDuel (55.5 yards, -113). We prefer the more friendly odds of FanDuel for this prop.
Deebo Samuel OVER 89.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-114 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Across two regular season games and the NFC Championship Game last year, Deebo Samuel was a tormenter of the Los Angeles Rams defense. The explosive dual-threat weapon averaged 123.6 yards from scrimmage in those contests against San Francisco’s NFC West rival, with most of his work coming through the air.
Samuel’s least-impressive output across those three games came in the NFC Championship Game, where he still managed 72 receiving yards and 26 rushing yards on 11 touches. While that amount was a low touch count for Deebo relative to his standard participation in the offense last season, he has yet to reach 11 combined carries-plus-receptions in three games this year.
Though Samuel has cleared this combined yardage mark just once in 2022, Kyle Shanahan should adjust Deebo’s involvement Monday night. His history against the Rams and status as the 49ers’ most explosive weapon must come to the forefront if the team is to reach its capabilities in the Jimmy Garoppolo-led offense. After a disappointing 10-point outing last week against Denver, the 49ers should make Samuel a focal point of their success Monday.
Matthew Stafford OVER 0.5 Interceptions (-125 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Matthew Stafford had a clean yet uninspiring passing day against the Arizona Cardinals last week. However, his protection of the football has been lacking overall in 2022. This test on the road against the 49ers will be another matter entirely.
Stafford has put the ball into danger this season, throwing five interceptions in his first two games against the Bills and Falcons. When passing windows have broken down, Stafford has thrown the ball anyway. That’s a dangerous recipe against a 49ers defense averaging an interception per game. San Francisco also boasts the best passing defense in the NFL this season, allowing just 148.3 yards per game through the air.
In three games against the 49ers last season, Stafford threw five interceptions. He threw at least one pick in each of those three contests. Given the early trends of his 2022 campaign, Stafford feels like a good bet to put another pass into the wrong hands on Monday night.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our How To Section — including How to Avoid the 7 Biggest Sports Betting Mistakes — or head to a more advanced strategy — like Thinking Like an Expert Sports Bettor — to learn more.