Navigate

NFL Week 4 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Best Futures Bets (2023)

by |

This week, I'm going in-depth to recommend two NFL future plays at medium-to-long odds that I think are great values at this point in the season.

The first play is for the Buccaneers, who currently sit tied atop the NFC South with the Falcons and Saints, to win that division. The price is a bit shorter than it was before the season started, but it's significantly longer than the two teams that it is tied with. I find that pricing just to be wrong.

The second play is a bet on Justin Herbert to win the MVP, taking advantage of the hot start that Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins have jumped out to. Herbert has quietly been very good, outplaying nearly all of his numbers from previous years, and their schedule breaks perfectly for the Chargers to pick up huge wins in big spots. If he's able to take advantage of those opportunities, this number is only going to drop week by week.

Let’s dive in!

NFL Week 4: Best Futures Bets

Tampa Bay Buccaneers To Win the NFC South (+400 via BetMGM)

While it's true that this number isn't quite as long as the +900 or so that was available before the season started, I still think we're getting plenty of value on a Buccaneers team that has the best WR duo and (I can't believe I'm saying this) potentially the best QB in the division, especially if Derek Carr misses significant time or regresses due to his shoulder injury.

We saw what happened on Sunday; Jameis Winston promptly blew a 17-point lead to a Packers team that was lifeless through the first three quarters of the game. They also barely squeaked a win out at home in Week 1 against a Tennessee team with major issues on the offensive line and looks to be already underperforming expectations.

The Falcons have shown what their running game can look like in favorable game scripts, but Desmond Ridder has massive limitations, and this offense isn't anywhere close to their full potential with the way Drake London and Kyle Pitts are being utilized.

That leaves the Panthers, who have already had their No. 1-overall pick miss time due to injury and also lost to both the Falcons and the Saints in games that were really never in doubt.

The biggest pushback to this play would be that Tampa has the toughest remaining schedule of the NFC South teams. Still, if they can win their games in the division, that will offset the rest of their schedule's strength. Tampa Bay has the highest offensive ceiling of the trio of teams tied at the top of the division, and I don't have to squint very hard at all to see them winning the NFC South roulette when all is said and done.

Justin Herbert To Win NFL MVP (+1600 via DraftKings Sportsbook)

With the scorching hot start that Tagovailoa and the Dolphins are off to, his MVP odds have plummeted to around +300 at most books. I find that to be a little egregious three weeks into the season for a player who could be one hit away from missing significant time due to his history of head injuries.

Scrolling down the board a bit brings me to Justin Herbert, who is currently the fifth-favorite at most books and is actually off to the best start of his career despite the Chargers’ 1-2 start. Herbert is currently averaging 313 YPG, with six TDs to no INTs, with the highest completion rate (74.4%) and QBR (74.7) of his career. His QBR is actually a full 14 points higher than it was at the end of last season when he finished in the top 10 for the MVP voting.

Individual performance isn't enough, though. The Chargers will have to win games, which I think is entirely plausible considering the following teams remain on the schedule: Raiders (twice), Broncos (twice), Jets, Bears and Patriots. They also have the opportunity to pick up wins in important primetime spots against the Cowboys, Ravens and Bills, all of which will be home games.

Herbert is also a media darling, well-liked and respected around the league, and sometimes maybe even overrated, which I think actually helps him when it comes to voting for awards like MVP. I think the path lays out perfectly for Herbert to pick up a ton of steam down the stretch if he continues to play well and pick up big wins in standalone spots. I'd grab this number now before it gets any shorter.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App