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NFL Week 4 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Longshot Bets (2023)

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Week 3 of the NFL season featured plenty of long-shot bets cashing for many happy bettors. The Miami Dolphins scored 70 points, running backs De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert each scored four touchdowns and Achane ran for over 200 yards. Elsewhere, the Chiefs won by 31, and the Houston Texans and Arizona Cardinals pulled off huge upsets. Will the craziness continue in Week 4?

Here are the best long-shot bets of Week 4 of the NFL season.

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Best NFL Week 4 Longshot Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Joe Burrow Over 350 Passing Yards (+825)

This total is only being offered at a few sportsbooks. While 300+ and 325+ offer great payouts, and we think they’re worth a play, Joe Burrow to throw for 350+ is the true longshot bet of the week.

Last week, we were on Deshaun Watson to throw for 300+ yards against the Tennessee Titans. While he missed that mark by 11 yards, his team won 27-3. In a closer game, Watson is almost guaranteed to clear that number.

This week, it’s Burrow’s turn to take on one of the worst pass defenses in the league. The Bengals got their first win in Week 3, and Burrow threw for 259 yards. This is an offense that needs to have an explosive game to continue to build confidence, and this is the perfect matchup for that.

While Burrow has yet to throw for more than 300 yards this season, he did top 350 on three different occasions last season.

Chicago Bears 0-10 Points (+600)

The Broncos gave up 70 points and 726 yards last week. The week before, they allowed 35 points and 388 yards. So, why do we trust them this week?

If a team gets absolutely humiliated like the Broncos did in Week 3, it’s generally a good idea to back them the following week. The best news for the Broncos is they get a great matchup that should give them their first win of the year and help the defense get right.

The Bears were also embarrassed in Week 3, but they do not have the talent to right the ship. They managed just 203 yards last week, and 75 of them came on their touchdown drive with 4:20 remaining. 

Justin Fields didn’t even throw for 100 yards last week, and in his previous two games, he didn’t look much better. This is an offense without an identity that is averaging less than 16 points per game. After what the Broncos went through last week, there is no way this defense folds again. Don’t be surprised to see the Bears with zero when the clock runs out.

Calvin Ridley 125+ Receiving Yards (+800)

Did you know that the Jacksonville Jaguars have three pass-catchers with exactly 173 receiving yards? Well, Christian Kirk, Evan Engram and Calvin Ridley are all sitting at that number as we head into Week 4.

However, we like Ridley in this game because he leads the team with 26 targets. His target-share has been consistent throughout the season. He’s only been out-targeted by Kirk once. So, even though Ridley only has 72 combined yards in his last two games, Trevor Lawrence is trying to get him the ball.

The Falcons’ pass defense only allows 180.0 passing yards per game, but they’ve also faced two very inexperienced quarterbacks in their first three games. Last week, the Falcons allowed Jared Goff to hit his top target, Amon-Ra St. Brown, nine times for 102 yards. 

After just five catches on 15 targets in the last two games, Ridley is due for a big performance. As the team’s No. 1 receiver, he should see plenty of opportunities against a defense that isn’t as good as their numbers suggest.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

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Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.

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