NFL Week 4 Pick’em Pool Advice, Picks & Predictions (2023)

by Phil Wood |
Sep 27, 2023

Last week, the Arizona Cardinals pulled the upset of the season when they defeated the Dallas Cowboys in convincing fashion. Are we in store for another big upset in Week 4?

Here is our best NFL pick-em advice for Week 4.

NFL Week 4 Pickâ€™Em Pool Advice

Atlanta Falcons vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars do not look like the team they were supposed to be coming into this season. They were just blown out at home by the Houston Texans, as C.J. Stroud threw for 280 yards and two touchdowns.

Meanwhile, the Falcons fell back to earth last week against the Detroit Lions. They scored just six points on their way to their first loss of the season. So, who has the advantage in a game featuring two teams looking to rebound?

We like the Jaguars. They have been disappointing this season, but this is a favorable matchup. Their pass defense has been terrible, but the Falcons do not have a passing attack that can take advantage of those weaknesses. This is a hard team to run the ball against, so the Falcons may run into similar problems they had with Detroit. The only real question is: Can Trevor Lawrence get it together against the Falcons' defense?

The Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars

Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills

After scoring 70 points in Week 2, the Dolphins find themselves underdogs as they head to Buffalo this week. They have not won in Buffalo since Christmas Eve of 2016, so if history is any indicator, the Dolphins could suffer their first loss of the year this week.

Since their Week 1 loss to the New York Jets, the Bills have outscored their opponents 75-13. They turned the Washington Commanders over five times last week, and they held them to 230 total yards.

The Dolphins offense has been fantastic in all three games this season. Their defense looked bad in Week 1, but it has looked much better in the two games since. This will be a close game throughout, but it'd be foolish to bet against the Dolphins' offense right now. They have too many weapons. Even though they haven't won in Buffalo in years, they lost two games there last year by a combined six points - one of those featured Skylar Thompson at quarterback.

The Pick: Miami Dolphins

Los Angeles Rams vs. Indianapolis Colts

In Week 3, the Colts pulled out a win over the Baltimore Ravens. They're now 2-0 on the road this season, and they will return home for a game against the 1-2 Rams.

A lot is always made about West Coast teams playing in the early time window. However, we will assume that Sean McVay and company have figured out a way to solve this problem. If they have, this game comes down to the players on the field. The Rams have a clear advantage there.

The Rams have lost two straight after their Week 1 win over the Seattle Seahawks. However, those losses have been one-score games against the San Francisco 49ers and Cincinnati Bengals. The Rams' offensive line was a serious problem in Week 3, and if they don't tighten up, Stafford could be on his back a lot against a defense that has 12 sacks this season.

Meanwhile, the Colts' offense will struggle with the Rams' defense. It's a unit that looks a lot like the one that won the Super Bowl two years ago. The Colts struggled against the Ravens last week, but they found a way to put drives together late. This week, they won't be within striking distance against the best offense they have faced this season.

The Pick: Los Angeles Rams

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Houston Texans

The Texans picked up their first win of the season in Week 3, and they looked great doing it. They outscored their division rivals by 20 points, and Stroud continued to play clean football. Through three games, he has not thrown an interception despite being tied for the fourth-most passing attempts in the league.

The Steelers need turnovers to win games. They have forced seven in their two victories, and yet they have still only won those games by a combined nine points. The offense averages 296.7 yards per game, and while much has been made of the defense, they're allowing 411.3 yards per contest.

Because of how Stroud and the Texans' offense protect the ball, we like them to win this game in a mini upset. The defense isn't great, but their offense is good enough to outduel Kenny Pickett and the Steelers.

The Pick: Houston Texans

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:

Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.

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