NFL Week 4 Picks & Predictions: Underdog Bets (2024)
Winning a bet is a great feeling, but winning one where you at least double your money is even better. To do so, you have to bet on teams with plus-money odds, the underdogs. Three weeks in, we have seen underdogs do exceptionally well. In Week 2, underdogs went 11-4-1 against the spread (ATS). In Week 3, eight out of 13 underdogs won outright on Sunday.
Will it happen again in Week 4? Bettors can only hope. We've identified a few games below in which we think the underdog has a solid chance to win outright.
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Best NFL Week 4 Underdog Bets
(Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Commanders (+150) vs. Cardinals (-3.5)
Everyone saw the Monday Night Football game between the Commanders and Bengals last week, right? You know, the one where Jayden Daniels looked like an old pro, completing 21-of-23 passes for 254 yards and a pair of touchdowns, plus another 39 yards and a score on the ground?
Yes, the Cardinals have been playing good football this season. Kyler Murray is playing well and James Conner is running hard. But the team is just 1-2 with losses to the Bills and Lions.
Both defenses have let their teams down this season, making it hard to count on either as the deciding force in this game. What will decide this game? It would not be shocking to see both offenses play well in this game, but as for who wins, I like the Commanders. I think Jayden Daniels is in the zone and the more dynamic playmaker of the two quarterbacks.
Pick: Commanders Moneyline (+150)
Rams (+130) vs. Bears (-3)
The Rams are coming off a game in which the offense rallied in the second half against an excellent 49ers defense to overcome a 10-point fourth-quarter deficit and win the game. They are still dealing with a ton of injuries, but Matthew Stafford is figuring out how to get the ball moving with the guys he has.
Last week, the Bears saw Caleb Williams blow up against the Colts for 363 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. But they struggled to run the ball, scored only 16 points and lost the game. This team is supposed to beat the Rams?
The Rams defense is giving up a league-worst 425.7 yards per game. Teams are throwing for close to 250 and running for almost 180 yards per game to go with 30.3 points per game (No. 31). Maybe Williams goes off for another big day against a bad defense. Chicago's defense is playing well and could give the Rams’ offense fits.
But the Rams still have talent on the roster and arguably a better head coach. Sean McVay will figure out a winning gameplan against an up-and-coming Bears team.
Pick: Rams Moneyline (+130)
Saints (+110) vs. Falcons (-1.5)
The Saints blew up on two teams for 40+ points but had an off game in Week 3, losing a close one to the Eagles 15-12. Atlanta showed improvement for the second week in a row but still lost. Yet, they are the betting favorite against the Saints this week? Crazy, right?
Now, the Falcons are better than their record would indicate. However, the Saints are not as bad as they played last week in the loss to the Eagles. We see this game being a close, hard-fought battle won by the team that can make plays in the fourth quarter. From what these teams have shown us, Atlanta is not that team.
Pick: Saints Moneyline (+110)
Honorable Mentions
The Packers are playing surprisingly well with Malik Willis at quarterback, but the Vikings are playing just as well with Sam Darnold, if not better. If the Vikings get out to an early lead, can Willis mount a comeback in the passing game? Maybe, but the passing game has looked as good as it has because the Packers are running the ball so well.
If they can't run because they fall too far behind...
As for the Bills and Ravens, it is easy to understand why Baltimore is favored after watching the Ravens dismantle the Cowboys. But Josh Allen is still one of the best playmakers in the game. He and the Bills will not be easy to beat.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday: