NFL Week 4 Picks: Sleepers & Longshot Bets (2024)
Anthony Richardson has already thrown six interceptions this season. Is he bound to keep up his average this week when his Indianapolis Colts take on the Pittsburgh Steelers? Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders take on Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals only scored 13 points last week, but will there be much defense this week? And how will the game play out when the Denver Broncos travel to take on the New York Jets?
Here are the best longshot bets of Week 4 of the NFL season.
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Best NFL Week 4 Longshot Bets
(Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Anthony Richardson 2+ Interceptions (+350)
Anthony Richardson has thrown multiple interceptions in back-to-back games. Now he has to play one of the best defenses in football. Oddsmakers are so confident he's going to throw at least one interception that the price is currently set at -150. Richardson is wildly inconsistent to start his career and he's failed to complete more than 50% of his passes in a game this season.
Professional defenses are making him pay for his struggles. He's thrown at least one interception in every game this season. The Steelers have intercepted four passes this season and multiple in two of their three games. Because Richardson is going to make at least seven or eight bad throws in this game, there's no reason not to take this.
Washington Commanders vs. Arizona Cardinals Over 62.5 Points (+372)
Jayden Daniels looks incredible right now. Last week, he finished 21-of-23 for 254 yards and two touchdowns. He also added 39 rushing yards and a touchdown, as he led his Commanders to a 38-33 road win in primetime. This week, Daniels should continue his excellent play against a defense that has struggled at times this season.
However, the reason to take this over is actually on the other side of the field. Kyler Murray is going to have a huge day against the Commanders. Last week, Joe Burrow threw for 324 yards and three touchdowns. After a frustrating game against the Detroit Lions last week, Murray will have a huge bounce-back game. These two teams might score every time they get the ball. Expect them to both score in the 30s.
Denver Broncos vs. New York Jets – Lowest Scoring Game (+650)
The main reason to take this longshot is the value. The price for this game to finish as the lowest scoring of the week is +650. There are three games with shorter odds to end the week with the fewest amount of points.
The Jets just held the New England Patriots and their toothless offense to three points. They're likely going to have similar success against the Broncos and Bo Nix this week. The Broncos scored just six points against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 2, and that's the opponent they’ve faced that's most similar to the Jets.
Last week, the Broncos scored 26 points and held the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to just seven points. They've allowed just 20 points in their last two games combined. The Jets' offense can do some damage, but the Broncos sneakily have one of the best defenses in football. For this price, this is a great play.
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.