NFL Week 4 Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions
The BettingPros Player Prop Cheat Sheet is an invaluable tool to help guide your player prop wagering. Here are some bets the cheat sheet likes this week and that I like enough to bet on myself.
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Derek Carr Under 270.5 Passing Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Starting in Las Vegas, our Betting Pros Cheat Sheet projects Derek Carr to finish with 19.4 passing yards less than his passing prop. In his last ten games, Carr has failed to exceed 270.5 passing yards in seven of them (30%). On top of this, Denver’s defense ranks third in the NFL, allowing only 170.0 pass yards per game. Additionally, Carr has averaged less than 270.5 passing yards per game in seven of his eight complete seasons. I will be siding with the cheat sheet here and betting the under on Carr’s passing yards.
Mack Hollins Under 51.5 Receiving Yards (-120 DraftKings)
Let’s stay in Las Vegas for our second cheat sheet player prop. Mack Hollins’ receiving yards prop has been set at 51.5 this week, while our projections are at 36.4. This massive 15.1 difference makes the under a value play. As mentioned, the Broncos rank third in receiving yards allowed through the season’s first three weeks. Hollins has unexpectedly surpassed this number in the last two weeks (66 and 158); as a result, the line has become inflated. In 68 career games, Hollins has averaged an impressively bad 14.6 yards per game. By taking the under here, I’ll be siding with the projections and historical track record.
Mark Andrews Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Moving onto Baltimore, our cheat sheet gives an 8.3-point edge to the over for this line. This comes as no surprise considering Mark Andrews has hit this mark in eight of his last ten games (80%). Additionally, Andrews averaged 80.1 receiving yards per game last season, gaining All-Pro recognition. Going against a banged-up Buffalo secondary in week four, Andrews should have no trouble hitting the over.
Alvin Kamara Over 53.5 Rushing Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Needless to say, Alvin Kamara has been off to an underwhelming start this season. However, after dealing with a rib injury in weeks one and two, Kamara exceeded 53.5 rushing yards in Week 3. Kamara is set to play against his most favorable matchup this season in London this early Sunday morning. The Minnesota Vikings have given up 137.7 rushing yards per game, which ranks 24th in the NFL. Additionally, the Betting Pros cheat sheet has Kamara projected 11 more rushing yards than most sportsbooks. I’ll be backing the numbers and betting the over on Kamara’s rushing yards this week.
Amari Cooper Over 4.5 Receptions (-151 Caesars)
Finally, looking at Cleveland vs. Atlanta, Amari Cooper’s receptions prop is a screaming value. Cooper has recorded five or more receptions in both of his last two games, each with 10+ targets. The Betting Pros cheat sheet has Cooper project a full reception more than most sportsbooks. Additionally, Cooper faces a favorable matchup against the Falcons, who rank 27th in the NFL in pass defense. On top of this, the premier wide receivers facing the Falcons went for nine, five, eleven, seven, and five receptions (Lockett, Metcalf, Kupp, Landry, Thomas). Expect Cooper to thrive against this Atlanta secondary, similar to those before him.
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