NFL Week 4 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz’s Favorites (2023)

by Pat Fitzmaurice |
Sep 29, 2023

With our first byes of the season coming up in Week 5, this is our last full slate of games for a while. Letâ€™s make the most of it, shall we?

Before we get to this weekâ€™s picks, a quick recap of Week 3 â€¦

The wins: Baker Mayfield under 229.5 passing yards, Travis Etienne over 68.5 rushing yards, Marvin Jones under 22.5 receiving yards, Adam Thielen over 35.5 receiving yards, Zach Ertz under 31.5 receiving yards, Darnell Mooney under 31.5 receiving yards

The losses: Bijan Robinson over 67.5 rushing yards, Josh Reynolds over 42.5 receiving yards, Zay Flowers over 48.5 receiving yards, Nico Collins over 53.5 receiving yards, Chris Godwin over 53.5 receiving yards

Last week: 6-5

Season record: 15-10

Here are my favorite selections for Week 4 â€¦

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NFL Week 4 Player Prop Bets

All odds are courtesy of DraftKings, as of Thursday afternoon.

Sam Howell UNDER 216.5 passing yards

Letâ€™s thank Kirk Cousins for inflating the passing yardage totals for quarterbacks going up against the Eagles. In Week 2, Cousins threw for 364 yards against Philadelphia. It was less about the Philly defense being bad and more about the Vikings playing from behind all game and not being able to run the ball. In the two weeks since, weâ€™ve seen the yardage totals set way too high for mediocre QBs facing the Eagles. Last week it was Baker Mayfield. We recommended betting the under on 229.5 passing yards, and Mayfield threw for 146 yards. Winner, winner, chicken dinner. Howell has failed to clear this number in two of his three starts. Heâ€™s basically played one good half of football so far this season, blowtorching the suspect Denver defense in a wild second-half comeback in Week 2. Howell was a mess against Buffalo last week, throwing for 170 yards with zero touchdowns and four interceptions. The Philadelphia pass rush will give him fits this week. Smash the under here.

Baker Mayfield UNDER 220.5 passing yards

You donâ€™t have to twist my arm to get me to bet the under on a Mayfield passing total of more than 200 yards. In Week 2, Mayfield lit up a bad Chicago pass defense for 317 yards. In his other two starts, Mayfield threw for 173 yards against the less-than-stellar Vikings defense and 146 yards against the Eagles. This week, Mayfield faces a tough Saints defense that is allowing 188.3 passing yards per game and just 5.1 yards per pass attempt. I doubt Mayfield comes close to this number.

Matthew Stafford OVER 263.5 passing yards

Stafford is slinging it this season. Heâ€™s averaging 42 pass attempts per game and has thrown no fewer than 33 passes in any of his three starts. This week, heâ€™s going up against a pass-funnel Colts defense. Indy is giving up only 3.5 yards per carry, and opponents are averaging 36.7 pass attempts per game against the Colts. Look for Stafford to take advantage of the Coltsâ€™ young, inexperienced outside cornerbacks.

Bijan Robinson OVER 65.5 rushing yards

Falcons head coach Arthur Smith seems hell-bent on underutilizing the Falconsâ€™ highly drafted skill-position players. First-rounders Kyle Pitts and WR Drake London donâ€™t get enough targets in Atlantaâ€™s run-heavy offense, and now Bijan isnâ€™t getting a workload befitting his talent. Youâ€™d think rushing volume wouldnâ€™t be a problem for Bijan when Smith is so fond of the running game, but in his first three games Bijan has had 10, 19 and 10 carries. Iâ€™ve vowed to keep betting overs on Bijanâ€™s rushing yardage until the totals are set higher. If Smith comes to his senses and gives Bijan 15-plus carries against the Jaguars in London, heâ€™ll clear this number.

Rachaad White UNDER 52.5 rushing yards

White has been held under 40 rushing yards in two of his first three games. If you take away his 73-yard rushing day against the hapless Bears in Week 2, White is averaging 38.5 rushing yards per game and 2.5 yards per carry. The Buccaneers rank 27th in rushing, and PFF has the Bucs rated 25th in run blocking. White faces a Saints defense that is allowing 3.4 yards per carry. Derrick Henry ran for 63 yards against the Saints in Week 1, Miles Sanders could muster only 43 rushing yards against them in Week 2, and A.J. Dillon ran for 33 yards against New Orleans in Week 3.

Samaje Perine OVER 18.5 rushing yards

Perine has only four rushing attempts in Denverâ€™s last two games, but never mind the understandable lack of carries in the Broncosâ€™ 70-20 loss to the Dolphins last week. Perine has a respectable 42.2% snap share, and the Broncos should have a run-friendly game script Sunday as road favorites against the woeful Bears. This is a low bar to clear for Perine, a solid committee back.

David Njoku UNDER 29.5 receiving yards

Njoku hasnâ€™t drawn more than four targets in any game this season and has failed to hit this number in two of three games. His quarterback, Deshaun Watson, is dealing with a sore shoulder. The Browns will be facing a Ravens defense that has given up only eight receptions and 45 yards to opposing tight ends. The under looks like a good percentage play here.

Adam Thielen over 4.5 receptions

Revenge game! Thielen is a native of Detroit Lakes, Minn., played college football at Minnesota State and spent nine seasons with the Vikings. He wonâ€™t have any trouble getting up for this game. Over the last two weeks, Thielen has 18 receptions on 23 targets. He had an 11-catch day last week with Andy Dalton filling in at quarterback for the concussed Bryce Young. The expectation is that Young will be back this week, but Thielen also had a seven-catch game while playing with Young in Week 2. The 33-year-old veteran has established himself as Carolinaâ€™s go-to receiver and should continue to rack up targets and receptions.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

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